Access Statistics for J. Scott Armstrong

Author contact details at EconPapers.

Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting 0 2 17 145 5 15 71 512
Advocacy and Objectivity in Science 0 3 7 65 5 19 63 440
Analyzing Quantitative Models 4 14 69 396 40 136 583 2,058
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? 0 1 3 30 2 10 45 285
Are Student Ratings of Instruction Useful? 2 5 14 69 4 15 51 201
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula 0 2 7 51 6 18 55 300
Book Review: Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, by Allen Tough, Chicago: Follette Publishing Co., 1982 0 0 0 25 0 3 22 215
Brand Trial After a Credibility Change 0 0 2 33 1 4 33 213
Brief vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase 0 3 18 87 2 11 58 290
Business School Prestige ^V Research versus Teaching 1 3 14 75 8 17 90 363
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation 1 7 25 109 8 35 127 532
Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney) 0 1 5 37 1 8 30 240
Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed 0 0 1 19 4 8 34 245
Commentary by J. Scott Armstrong on Fildes et al.: <93>Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence,<94> 0 0 1 30 1 4 26 168
Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M- Competition) 7 20 66 257 27 74 243 839
Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal 0 1 6 39 1 8 37 178
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share 1 2 12 145 5 10 76 449
Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods 0 1 10 87 3 11 45 300
Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction 1 2 4 61 3 12 47 269
Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series 1 5 22 125 8 34 128 578
Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods 8 28 175 762 47 156 977 3,183
Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Analysis or Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine 2 4 23 118 11 27 132 437
Designing and Using Experiential Exercises 2 3 33 233 15 59 299 1,337
Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals 0 3 10 73 9 32 130 694
Does the Need for Agreement Among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings? 0 0 1 18 0 6 23 155
Eclectic Research and Construct Validation 4 6 18 66 10 26 119 590
Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups 2 4 20 89 35 78 213 727
Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability 0 4 16 176 16 60 203 840
Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results* 3 9 31 192 7 31 134 810
Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing? 0 0 7 41 14 37 255 720
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys 7 20 73 422 24 64 238 1,249
Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners 2 6 33 165 10 30 177 689
Evidence on the Value of Strategic Planning in Marketing: How Much Planning Should a Marketing Planner Plan? 4 15 55 354 17 53 263 1,096
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues 1 3 36 36 5 12 76 76
Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations 2 5 11 85 9 29 91 534
Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research 9 20 80 275 29 82 320 944
Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research 1 4 15 109 5 17 73 359
Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections 0 0 5 53 0 4 34 84
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 1 4 8 70 3 9 35 209
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 1 5 23 116 2 25 109 391
Forecasting for Marketing 5 22 88 391 24 121 396 1,410
Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts 2 7 23 142 9 27 97 250
How Expert Are the Experts? 1 1 3 26 1 3 13 122
How Expert Are the Experts? 0 0 4 84 0 2 24 186
How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls^T 0 1 2 19 4 11 33 169
How to Avoid Exploratory Research 3 7 40 198 20 51 224 909
Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit 0 9 33 204 14 49 242 1,094
Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible? 1 3 8 93 1 9 41 199
Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply 0 0 0 14 0 6 26 150
Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series 0 2 16 107 4 15 79 339
Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears? 1 1 2 33 3 10 31 173
Learner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research (with Comments) 1 2 3 25 2 8 30 172
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 1 1 21 0 5 22 183
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 0 0 28 5 11 26 217
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 1 3 19 57 5 12 72 177
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys 3 4 12 95 4 11 53 380
On the Effectiveness of Marketing Planning 0 3 10 127 1 14 67 425
On the Interpretation of Factor Analysis 19 61 180 640 64 212 606 1,848
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation 2 3 12 113 4 21 91 489
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit 1 10 40 92 11 91 837 1,255
Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley 0 2 12 67 5 19 77 376
Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions 2 7 28 97 14 42 185 588
Predicting elections from politicians’ faces 4 7 36 56 27 66 266 275
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings* 2 6 20 142 17 43 172 732
Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment 6 24 68 310 35 128 502 1,706
Publication Bias Against Null Results 1 2 10 45 1 7 38 228
Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial) 0 1 4 38 2 7 27 187
Quality Control Versus Innovation in Research on Marketing 4 6 17 95 15 34 111 478
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals 0 0 4 55 0 7 45 321
Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, with Reply to Commentators 0 0 5 44 2 9 55 319
Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings 0 1 6 46 2 8 44 269
Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary* 0 0 5 54 0 8 43 281
Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984 1 1 6 90 1 6 33 291
Research on Scientific Journals: Implications for Editors and Authors 1 1 7 63 2 9 46 293
Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis 0 2 12 59 12 30 100 499
Review of Don A. Dillman's Mail and Telephone Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978 0 3 23 122 7 27 140 1,039
Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences, New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1988 0 1 11 80 4 17 71 425
Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990 (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) 1 6 74 284 22 65 505 2,188
Review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (published by Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1983)) 0 2 13 58 1 7 79 349
Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things 0 0 8 56 0 5 31 200
Role Conflict: Society’s Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing 1 3 15 125 9 27 117 695
Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations 4 5 23 177 8 33 124 576
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions? 0 0 3 30 0 7 22 146
Social Irresponsibility in Management 2 3 7 57 7 22 72 401
Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals 24 55 250 784 113 309 1,243 2,974
Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance 2 4 32 204 13 34 140 601
Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach 1 6 35 208 13 57 249 1,083
Structured Analogies for Forecasting 2 6 19 112 9 28 104 411
Structured analogies for forecasting 0 0 7 58 1 4 33 200
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 1 1 16 73 9 22 116 396
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 4 8 36 121 15 42 199 566
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 1 1 5 31 3 5 30 152
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 2 5 8 34 4 13 30 148
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 1 1 2 22 2 9 42 229
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 0 0 30 2 8 46 307
The Devil<92>s Advocate Responds to an MBA Student<92>s Claim that Research Harms Learning 4 17 34 164 6 31 84 366
The Graffiti Problem 4 9 40 210 55 190 530 2,001
The Graffiti Solution 4 7 22 141 13 50 235 927
The Importance of Objectivity and Falsification in Management Science 0 2 15 71 5 19 184 644
The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing 1 1 15 153 9 16 109 793
The Natural Learning Project 0 1 4 34 3 8 48 208
The Panalba Role Playing Case 3 9 49 181 12 42 201 636
The Profitability of Winning 0 2 8 62 0 5 31 218
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting 3 6 37 152 12 41 152 883
The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply 2 11 38 195 12 56 266 980
The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing 1 1 3 43 3 8 28 181
The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts? 0 1 4 62 1 11 47 321
Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973 1 1 12 76 2 7 56 312
Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making 2 8 45 45 6 21 47 47
Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts 0 0 2 36 1 6 39 159
Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge? 1 2 10 76 1 9 66 203
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 1 3 8 64 1 13 73 341
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 0 3 12 60 2 15 75 316
Total Working Papers 201 609 2,657 13,599 1,099 3,690 16,183 63,411

Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
"How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus": Batchelor, Roy (2001), Applied Economics, 33, pp. 225-235. E-mail address: R.A.Batchelor@city.bc.uk 0 1 3 19 1 4 12 120
A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts: Phillip A. Braun and Ilan Yaniv, Journal of behavioral decision making, 5 (1992), 217-231 0 1 4 38 5 6 15 122
A cautionary tale about multiple regression: Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1991) 48-49 0 1 5 36 2 4 30 166
Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison: R. Nada Sanders, Omega, 20 (1992) 353-364 0 1 6 48 1 4 22 175
An analysis of the accuracy ot "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election: Richard R. Lau, 1994, Public opinion quarterly, 58, 2-20 0 0 4 19 1 3 16 107
An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge 0 0 1 26 0 2 8 106
Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment 0 0 3 16 1 2 16 98
Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting 1 2 5 28 1 2 10 106
Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods 0 1 5 34 0 4 20 149
Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote 1 3 9 9 2 8 15 15
Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? 0 0 1 6 4 7 13 40
Communication of research on forecasting: The journal 0 0 2 4 1 1 5 14
Damped seasonality factors: Introduction 0 1 2 15 0 2 7 70
Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series 0 1 2 23 0 1 15 96
Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals 0 0 2 22 0 1 26 166
Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court 0 0 2 14 0 1 19 114
Editorial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings 0 0 1 10 0 0 6 41
Editorial: Reflections on forecasting in the 1980's 0 0 1 7 0 1 8 38
Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons 0 2 10 108 2 8 56 362
Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities 0 0 0 7 1 2 9 49
Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms: William B. Gartner, and Robert J. Thomas, 1993, Journal of Productive Innovation Management, 10, 35-52 0 2 13 99 1 4 49 377
Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626 0 0 1 7 1 2 9 67
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error 0 0 7 29 1 2 25 89
Forecasting of software development work effort: Introduction 0 1 14 30 1 6 40 92
Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results: Nada Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, 1994, interfaces, 24, 92-100 2 3 16 101 2 6 32 240
Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact 0 1 11 65 1 3 41 215
From the editors 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 14
Generalization and communication issues in the use of error measures: A reply 0 0 2 5 1 3 9 48
Harvard Business Review: David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick, manager's guide to forecasting, 64 (Jan-Feb.) (1986) 110-120 3 5 31 110 4 12 66 262
Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series: P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553-568 0 0 2 36 0 0 5 119
How We Computed the Pollyvote 0 1 4 15 0 4 26 79
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 101
International journal of public administration: Lance Eliot Brouthers, parties, ideology and elections: The politics of federal revenues and expenditures forecasting, 8 (1986) 289-314 1 2 3 15 2 8 46 143
J. Scott Armstrong, Forecasting by extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 years of research, Interfaces 14 (1984), pp. 52-66 0 2 7 23 2 7 22 98
Journal of business forecasting: John Hanke and Pam Weigand, 1994, What are business schools doing to educate forecasters, Fall, 10-12 0 0 8 99 3 11 68 832
Journal of economic literature: Clifford Winston, 1993, Economic deregulation: Days of reckoning for microeconomists, 31, 1263-1289 2 6 12 73 4 12 37 253
Journal of personality and social psychology: Osberg, Timothy M. and J. Sidney Shrauger, Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy, 51 (1986), 1044-1057 1 2 9 21 3 5 50 144
Judgmental decomposition: when does it work? 0 0 2 16 0 0 13 99
Making progress in forecasting 0 0 0 17 0 1 3 49
Management science: D. Bunn and G. Wright, "Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis", 37 (1991) 501-518 1 2 5 41 1 2 11 101
Marketing letters: Barry L., Bayus, (1992), Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time? 3 215-226 0 0 5 40 0 2 19 182
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 1 2 13 30 3 8 43 102
Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives": Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696 0 1 2 13 0 2 9 96
Omega 21: G.L. Riddington, (1993), Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance, 573-583 1 2 3 33 1 2 13 110
Organizational behavior and human decision processes: Wagenaar, Willem A. and G.B. Keren, The seat belt paradox: Effect off accepted roles on information seeking,, 38 (1986), 1-6 2 2 6 12 4 7 27 81
P.E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Princeton University Press (2006) ISBN 978-0-691-12871-9 Paperback, 352 pp 1 2 24 45 4 10 54 111
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,: Ray C. Fair. Stanford University Press: Stanford, CA, 2002, 168 pp., Hardback, ISBN 0-8047-4509-9, $26.00 0 1 2 24 1 4 15 162
Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test: Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32 0 1 6 42 1 5 22 210
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings 0 1 6 13 1 7 24 64
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices 0 0 0 2 2 10 47 277
Public opinion quarterly: Jacob Shamir, preelection polls in Israel: Structural constraints on accuracy, 50 (1986) 62-75 0 0 2 6 1 3 12 48
Public opinion quarterly: James B. Lemert, picking the winners: Politician vs. voter predictions of two controversial ballot measures, 50 (1986) 208-221 0 0 1 3 0 2 15 40
Public opinion quarterly: Steven J. Rosenstone, John Mark Hansen, and Donald R. Kinder, measuring change in personal economic well-being, 50 (1986) 176-192 0 0 3 7 4 4 22 86
Public opinion quarterly: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources" 54 (1990) 609-626 0 0 1 13 0 1 15 135
Public opinion quarterly: William Buchanan, election predictions: An empirical assessment, 50 (1986) 222-227 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 32
Publication of research on controversial topics: The early acceptance procedure 0 0 0 10 0 0 7 157
Replication research's disturbing trend 0 0 6 26 0 0 13 70
Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy? 1 1 8 42 1 2 19 141
Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings? 1 2 8 35 2 5 26 118
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting 0 0 2 11 1 4 20 54
Social irresponsibility in management 0 2 2 10 3 6 14 53
Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries 0 2 11 31 2 9 31 88
Structured analogies for forecasting 0 0 4 12 5 13 37 73
The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy 3 5 14 52 5 15 34 151
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 0 1 6 88 0 2 53 410
The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts? 0 0 1 9 0 0 8 75
The fertile field of meta-analysis: Cumulative progress in agricultural forecasting 0 0 1 7 0 0 2 44
The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior: Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Marketing 6 (1989) 183-198 1 1 12 92 1 1 32 281
The great depression of 1990: Ravi Batra, (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) pp. 235, $14.95 0 0 21 38 1 4 72 175
The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting: R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, 1995, International Statistical Review, 63, 289-308 1 1 9 46 1 3 20 110
The uses and abuses of consensus forecasts: Stephen K. McNees,Journal of forecasting, 11 (1992) 703-710 0 0 7 62 0 1 18 154
The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis: Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615 1 6 30 212 5 20 76 484
The value of surprising findings for research on marketing 0 0 2 14 0 1 4 67
Validity of an honeesty test in predicting theft among convenience store employees: H. John Bernardin and D.K. Cooke, 1993 Academy of Management Journal, 36, 1097-1108 0 0 1 13 0 1 10 112
Total Journal Articles 25 74 435 2,387 98 306 1,729 10,134

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Statistics updated 2009-07-03