Access Statistics for J. Scott Armstrong

Author contact details at EconPapers.

Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting 1 5 17 132 6 17 87 452
Advocacy and Objectivity in Science 0 1 10 58 5 17 87 385
Analyzing Quantitative Models 5 29 134 343 57 169 738 1,579
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? 1 1 5 28 6 13 58 250
Are Student Ratings of Instruction Useful? 1 3 5 58 5 11 43 158
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula 1 3 7 47 6 16 65 255
Book Review: Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, by Allen Tough, Chicago: Follette Publishing Co., 1982 0 0 4 25 3 8 49 198
Brand Trial After a Credibility Change 0 0 5 31 5 11 51 186
Brief vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase 1 4 18 72 6 15 76 242
Business School Prestige ^V Research versus Teaching 0 2 12 63 11 26 103 291
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation 2 4 15 87 10 32 106 425
Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney) 1 2 5 34 5 11 52 216
Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed 0 0 4 18 6 15 57 220
Commentary by J. Scott Armstrong on Fildes et al.: <93>Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence,<94> 0 0 1 29 4 12 34 148
Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M- Competition) 4 12 53 201 19 43 156 626
Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal 2 4 9 37 8 11 42 151
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share 1 5 20 135 6 24 101 382
Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods 1 1 8 78 5 9 46 262
Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction 0 0 3 57 6 14 48 232
Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series 2 6 22 107 9 26 127 466
Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods 20 55 231 623 148 315 1,133 2,449
Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Analysis or Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine 2 4 17 99 10 27 99 322
Designing and Using Experiential Exercises 4 12 52 206 35 100 395 1,108
Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals 1 3 8 65 15 30 109 586
Does the Need for Agreement Among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings? 0 0 0 17 2 4 31 134
Eclectic Research and Construct Validation 0 1 10 49 9 31 132 497
Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups 2 4 18 72 11 31 167 531
Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability 0 8 40 160 24 54 314 673
Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results* 4 15 39 172 20 56 178 713
Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing? 0 4 9 36 7 117 252 497
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys 6 15 83 359 21 61 284 1,047
Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners 1 6 32 135 13 36 171 535
Evidence on the Value of Strategic Planning in Marketing: How Much Planning Should a Marketing Planner Plan? 1 12 62 306 12 68 266 874
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies 19 19 19 19 14 14 14 14
Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations 1 4 13 77 6 23 108 455
Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research 3 10 54 201 12 38 203 645
Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research 0 3 17 97 4 16 70 297
Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections 0 0 48 48 4 12 58 58
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 1 3 9 63 5 13 48 182
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 0 6 10 97 7 25 58 301
Forecasting for Marketing 5 10 61 313 26 62 324 1,059
Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts 0 3 67 120 12 26 158 169
How Expert Are the Experts? 0 1 4 24 2 5 29 112
How Expert Are the Experts? 0 0 7 80 5 8 39 169
How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls^T 0 0 3 17 5 8 40 143
How to Avoid Exploratory Research 3 9 39 164 21 56 276 725
Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit 5 10 31 179 23 63 264 890
Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible? 1 3 9 88 3 8 46 165
Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply 0 0 3 14 2 4 36 127
Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series 3 8 22 97 11 28 93 279
Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears? 0 0 5 31 2 6 38 145
Learner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research (with Comments) 0 0 0 22 2 6 40 146
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 1 1 20 4 12 43 166
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 0 4 28 2 8 48 195
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 2 9 45 45 11 31 125 125
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys 1 1 7 84 5 12 67 334
On the Effectiveness of Marketing Planning 0 0 19 117 5 20 91 370
On the Interpretation of Factor Analysis 12 49 184 494 44 147 540 1,335
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation 2 3 24 103 14 41 142 422
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit 4 6 56 56 68 122 503 503
Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley 2 4 14 58 8 23 96 311
Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions 4 9 27 75 15 45 152 434
Predicting elections from politicians’ faces 4 27 27 27 20 56 56 56
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings* 2 5 20 126 24 50 171 598
Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment 5 18 92 254 44 143 566 1,300
Publication Bias Against Null Results 1 1 9 36 2 7 52 193
Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial) 0 0 4 34 2 8 44 165
Quality Control Versus Innovation in Research on Marketing 2 4 13 80 16 34 114 388
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals 0 0 8 51 3 8 71 283
Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, with Reply to Commentators 0 0 1 39 5 10 56 273
Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings 1 4 9 42 4 17 54 234
Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary* 0 0 9 49 4 11 62 244
Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984 0 1 11 85 4 14 72 265
Research on Scientific Journals: Implications for Editors and Authors 2 4 12 60 8 17 72 259
Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis 1 2 15 49 8 26 110 415
Review of Don A. Dillman's Mail and Telephone Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978 3 10 29 105 14 43 244 924
Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences, New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1988 0 0 28 69 4 11 121 361
Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990 (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) 2 11 49 218 28 88 447 1,736
Review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (published by Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1983)) 0 5 9 47 5 17 67 279
Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things 1 3 11 50 3 11 46 175
Role Conflict: Society’s Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing 0 2 25 110 7 21 130 589
Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations 2 3 24 156 8 33 130 470
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions? 0 0 1 27 2 5 30 126
Social Irresponsibility in Management 0 3 12 51 6 17 90 339
Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals 21 74 264 579 101 293 993 1,929
Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance 3 6 34 177 18 38 136 492
Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach 3 12 49 182 20 58 269 872
Structured Analogies for Forecasting 4 7 19 98 10 23 99 323
Structured analogies for forecasting 1 3 9 54 5 11 41 175
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 1 5 18 59 7 31 127 300
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 2 9 34 92 12 41 154 397
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 0 0 2 26 2 6 36 125
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 1 1 6 27 3 8 37 121
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 1 1 20 3 13 53 194
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 0 1 30 3 16 66 267
The Devil<92>s Advocate Responds to an MBA Student<92>s Claim that Research Harms Learning 2 9 40 135 6 27 96 298
The Graffiti Problem 0 3 38 172 16 68 529 1,504
The Graffiti Solution 0 1 23 120 11 34 226 713
The Importance of Objectivity and Falsification in Management Science 0 1 9 57 15 38 177 486
The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing 2 5 18 142 11 32 115 701
The Natural Learning Project 0 0 5 30 2 9 46 166
The Panalba Role Playing Case 5 11 39 140 16 39 144 461
The Profitability of Winning 0 0 5 54 2 6 34 191
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting 7 16 49 128 25 66 189 777
The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply 3 4 50 161 19 36 276 740
The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing 0 1 7 40 4 11 43 160
The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts? 0 1 8 58 5 13 61 280
Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973 2 3 8 67 6 16 65 266
Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts 0 1 4 35 7 11 32 130
Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge? 1 2 17 68 5 46 129 154
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 0 2 11 57 5 10 69 274
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 1 2 9 50 5 12 70 252
Total Working Papers 217 675 2,955 11,393 1,422 3,971 16,523 49,786

Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
"How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus": Batchelor, Roy (2001), Applied Economics, 33, pp. 225-235. E-mail address: R.A.Batchelor@city.bc.uk 0 0 2 16 2 3 19 110
A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts: Phillip A. Braun and Ilan Yaniv, Journal of behavioral decision making, 5 (1992), 217-231 1 2 13 35 4 7 38 113
A cautionary tale about multiple regression: Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1991) 48-49 1 1 10 32 3 8 42 142
Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison: R. Nada Sanders, Omega, 20 (1992) 353-364 0 1 6 42 1 7 25 155
An analysis of the accuracy ot "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election: Richard R. Lau, 1994, Public opinion quarterly, 58, 2-20 0 0 5 15 0 1 17 91
An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge 0 1 4 25 1 3 12 100
Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment 0 0 3 13 1 6 17 84
Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting 0 2 4 25 1 6 18 100
Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods 0 1 4 30 1 3 22 132
Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? 0 1 3 6 0 3 12 29
Communication of research on forecasting: The journal 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 10
Damped seasonality factors: Introduction 0 1 3 14 0 2 6 64
Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series 0 0 1 21 2 5 15 84
Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals 1 1 3 21 4 7 17 146
Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court 0 0 2 12 0 5 23 96
Editorial 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5
Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings 0 0 2 9 1 1 6 36
Editorial: Reflections on forecasting in the 1980's 0 0 2 6 0 1 10 31
Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons 0 1 10 99 3 15 50 316
Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities 0 0 1 7 1 3 6 42
Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms: William B. Gartner, and Robert J. Thomas, 1993, Journal of Productive Innovation Management, 10, 35-52 0 3 12 89 6 13 78 339
Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626 0 0 1 6 1 3 10 60
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error 1 4 14 25 1 7 34 69
Forecasting of software development work effort: Introduction 3 3 19 19 6 16 61 61
Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results: Nada Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, 1994, interfaces, 24, 92-100 1 2 17 87 3 8 48 215
Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact 1 4 10 56 3 10 32 181
From the editors 0 0 1 1 1 2 5 14
Generalization and communication issues in the use of error measures: A reply 0 0 0 3 0 1 9 39
Harvard Business Review: David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick, manager's guide to forecasting, 64 (Jan-Feb.) (1986) 110-120 1 4 31 81 7 17 82 207
Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series: P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553-568 1 2 6 35 2 3 19 116
How We Computed the Pollyvote 0 1 7 11 2 16 34 62
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces 0 0 0 0 1 5 11 94
International journal of public administration: Lance Eliot Brouthers, parties, ideology and elections: The politics of federal revenues and expenditures forecasting, 8 (1986) 289-314 0 0 7 12 7 10 44 106
J. Scott Armstrong, Forecasting by extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 years of research, Interfaces 14 (1984), pp. 52-66 0 1 5 17 2 8 42 80
Journal of business forecasting: John Hanke and Pam Weigand, 1994, What are business schools doing to educate forecasters, Fall, 10-12 1 4 22 94 8 30 152 780
Journal of economic literature: Clifford Winston, 1993, Economic deregulation: Days of reckoning for microeconomists, 31, 1263-1289 1 4 20 64 2 7 48 221
Journal of personality and social psychology: Osberg, Timothy M. and J. Sidney Shrauger, Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy, 51 (1986), 1044-1057 1 1 5 13 8 13 52 105
Judgmental decomposition: when does it work? 0 0 1 14 0 3 14 86
Making progress in forecasting 0 0 1 17 0 2 8 47
Management science: D. Bunn and G. Wright, "Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis", 37 (1991) 501-518 1 2 6 37 2 3 10 92
Marketing letters: Barry L., Bayus, (1992), Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time? 3 215-226 0 0 4 35 0 3 26 165
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 0 6 20 20 7 25 75 75
Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives": Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696 0 0 2 11 2 6 25 89
Omega 21: G.L. Riddington, (1993), Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance, 573-583 0 0 6 30 2 10 30 101
Organizational behavior and human decision processes: Wagenaar, Willem A. and G.B. Keren, The seat belt paradox: Effect off accepted roles on information seeking,, 38 (1986), 1-6 1 1 2 7 6 12 32 62
P.E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Princeton University Press (2006) ISBN 978-0-691-12871-9 Paperback, 352 pp 1 6 24 25 2 17 62 67
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,: Ray C. Fair. Stanford University Press: Stanford, CA, 2002, 168 pp., Hardback, ISBN 0-8047-4509-9, $26.00 0 0 3 22 2 5 20 151
Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test: Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32 1 2 8 37 1 13 51 193
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings 1 1 2 8 4 5 21 45
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices 0 0 2 2 3 11 67 238
Public opinion quarterly: Jacob Shamir, preelection polls in Israel: Structural constraints on accuracy, 50 (1986) 62-75 0 0 0 4 2 5 18 41
Public opinion quarterly: James B. Lemert, picking the winners: Politician vs. voter predictions of two controversial ballot measures, 50 (1986) 208-221 0 0 0 2 1 5 12 27
Public opinion quarterly: Steven J. Rosenstone, John Mark Hansen, and Donald R. Kinder, measuring change in personal economic well-being, 50 (1986) 176-192 0 0 1 4 4 7 33 69
Public opinion quarterly: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources" 54 (1990) 609-626 1 1 3 13 1 6 21 124
Public opinion quarterly: William Buchanan, election predictions: An empirical assessment, 50 (1986) 222-227 0 0 0 1 0 4 14 27
Publication of research on controversial topics: The early acceptance procedure 0 0 0 10 1 2 18 152
Replication research's disturbing trend 1 2 9 21 2 8 27 62
Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy? 0 2 12 35 2 8 39 126
Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings? 0 0 6 27 2 10 37 97
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting 0 1 6 9 5 10 32 40
Social irresponsibility in management 0 0 2 8 0 0 20 39
Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries 0 7 21 23 1 16 57 64
Structured analogies for forecasting 1 1 9 9 4 13 44 44
The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy 0 7 21 43 0 14 54 125
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 0 8 35 84 7 42 173 375
The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts? 0 0 4 8 0 6 21 69
The fertile field of meta-analysis: Cumulative progress in agricultural forecasting 0 0 2 6 0 0 3 42
The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior: Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Marketing 6 (1989) 183-198 0 3 10 81 3 16 40 257
The great depression of 1990: Ravi Batra, (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) pp. 235, $14.95 1 4 12 19 1 14 65 109
The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting: R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, 1995, International Statistical Review, 63, 289-308 1 1 11 38 2 3 25 93
The uses and abuses of consensus forecasts: Stephen K. McNees,Journal of forecasting, 11 (1992) 703-710 0 0 12 55 1 4 37 139
The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis: Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615 2 9 51 187 5 22 111 421
The value of surprising findings for research on marketing 0 0 1 12 0 1 12 63
Validity of an honeesty test in predicting theft among convenience store employees: H. John Bernardin and D.K. Cooke, 1993 Academy of Management Journal, 36, 1097-1108 1 2 7 13 1 10 34 106
Total Journal Articles 28 112 572 2,021 162 597 2,509 8,757

logo

LogEc Home

Top Working Papers
Top Journal Articles
Top Books
Top Chapters
Top Software Items

Top Authors

Top Working Paper series and Journals

About LogEc

Authors with papers registered in the RePEc Author Service.

Register yourself as an author or register more papers in the RePEc Author Service.

Authors with no registered papers

RePEc
LogEc provides access and usage for services based on the RePEc data set.

Örebro UniversityLogEc is hosted by the Swedish Business School at Örebro University.

Questions or comments? Please see our explanation of how the statistics are collected or e-mail .

Statistics updated 2008-09-04