Access Statistics for J. Scott Armstrong

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting 0 0 1 187 0 0 3 665
Advocacy and Objectivity in Science 0 0 0 78 0 0 3 565
Analyzing Quantitative Models 0 0 0 547 1 2 10 3,144
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? 0 0 0 38 0 0 2 370
Are Student Ratings of Instruction Useful? 0 0 0 94 0 0 7 328
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula 0 0 1 76 0 0 3 435
Benchmark forecasts for climate change 0 2 2 67 1 4 8 204
Book Review: Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, by Allen Tough, Chicago: Follette Publishing Co., 1982 0 0 0 34 0 0 3 276
Brand Trial After a Credibility Change 0 0 0 43 0 0 2 305
Brief vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase 0 0 0 116 0 0 5 416
Business School Prestige ^V Research versus Teaching 0 0 2 96 0 1 10 472
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation 0 0 0 139 0 0 7 774
Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney) 0 0 1 53 0 0 5 335
Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed 0 0 0 24 0 0 2 294
Commentary by J. Scott Armstrong on Fildes et al.: Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence 0 0 1 33 0 0 4 222
Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M- Competition) 0 1 2 521 1 5 19 1,768
Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal 0 0 0 50 0 0 2 220
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share 1 2 11 191 3 10 34 609
Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods 0 0 1 113 0 0 4 395
Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction 0 0 0 72 0 0 5 352
Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series 0 0 0 149 0 1 4 718
Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods 0 4 9 1,030 6 21 91 5,089
Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Analysis or Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine 0 0 3 175 1 2 12 708
Designing and Using Experiential Exercises 0 0 1 340 0 1 7 2,150
Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals 0 0 0 98 0 1 8 926
Does the Need for Agreement Among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings? 0 0 0 20 1 1 8 198
Eclectic Research and Construct Validation 1 1 1 96 1 1 9 903
Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups 0 0 1 121 0 0 4 1,050
Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability 0 1 1 208 0 2 7 1,173
Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results* 0 0 2 252 0 1 13 1,127
Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies 0 1 9 45 1 8 30 102
Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing? 0 0 0 60 2 3 8 994
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys 1 2 12 595 6 16 67 1,959
Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners 0 0 2 212 1 3 15 928
Evidence on the Value of Strategic Planning in Marketing: How Much Planning Should a Marketing Planner Plan? 0 0 2 409 0 1 6 1,355
Evidence on the effects of mandatory disclaimers in advertising 0 0 2 33 0 0 4 75
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies 0 0 2 52 0 0 9 162
Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations 0 0 0 104 0 0 6 685
Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research 0 2 2 452 3 6 14 1,841
Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research 0 0 1 158 0 1 7 554
Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections 0 0 1 71 1 2 7 181
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 0 0 1 81 0 0 4 266
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 0 0 1 143 0 0 6 525
Forecasting for Marketing 0 0 1 513 1 2 8 2,407
Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts 0 2 2 167 0 3 8 342
Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative 0 2 5 66 2 6 21 124
How Expert Are the Experts? 0 0 0 41 0 0 4 155
How Expert Are the Experts? 0 0 2 110 0 0 9 337
How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls^T 0 0 0 28 0 0 6 241
How to Avoid Exploratory Research 0 2 10 269 1 4 28 1,348
Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit 0 0 0 244 0 0 4 1,395
Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible? 0 1 1 110 0 1 6 253
Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply 0 0 0 19 0 0 4 193
Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series 0 0 1 143 0 0 6 482
Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears? 1 1 1 42 1 2 6 221
Learner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research (with Comments) 0 0 0 30 0 0 3 228
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 0 0 30 0 0 3 228
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 0 1 37 1 1 6 284
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 0 2 6 103 0 4 25 356
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys 0 0 1 123 0 0 5 500
On the Effectiveness of Marketing Planning 0 0 0 154 0 0 4 512
On the Interpretation of Factor Analysis 1 1 8 1,286 1 1 14 4,441
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation 0 0 1 156 1 2 10 716
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit 0 0 0 140 1 2 9 1,613
Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley 0 0 1 82 0 1 7 554
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates 0 1 1 77 0 3 10 553
Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions 0 0 1 134 0 0 6 915
Predicting elections from politicians’ faces 0 0 2 81 0 2 15 765
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings* 0 0 0 221 0 1 12 1,193
Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment 0 1 6 407 0 2 12 2,390
Publication Bias Against Null Results 0 1 1 58 0 4 7 310
Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial) 0 0 0 44 0 1 8 239
Quality Control Versus Innovation in Research on Marketing 0 0 0 128 0 0 3 672
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals 0 2 4 69 0 3 10 406
Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, with Reply to Commentators 0 0 2 89 1 4 41 804
Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings 0 1 2 59 0 1 5 351
Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary* 0 1 2 77 0 1 10 415
Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984 0 0 0 108 0 0 4 369
Research on Scientific Journals: Implications for Editors and Authors 0 0 0 82 0 0 4 365
Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis 1 2 2 73 2 4 10 612
Review of Don A. Dillman's Mail and Telephone Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978 0 0 0 170 0 0 6 1,282
Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences, New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1988 0 0 0 121 1 4 18 745
Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990 (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) 0 0 0 388 0 1 12 2,926
Review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (published by Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1983)) 0 0 0 95 0 0 4 535
Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things 0 0 1 66 0 0 5 258
Role Conflict: Society’s Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing 0 0 0 148 0 1 4 953
Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts 0 0 0 80 0 1 14 177
Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations 3 3 4 249 6 10 37 944
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions? 0 0 0 46 0 0 5 190
Social Irresponsibility in Management 0 0 0 82 1 2 7 580
Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals 0 0 2 1,472 1 2 22 7,136
Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance 0 0 3 275 0 0 14 844
Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach 0 0 1 246 0 0 5 1,411
Structured Analogies for Forecasting 0 0 0 155 0 2 10 694
Structured analogies for forecasting 0 0 1 66 1 5 9 239
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 0 0 0 102 0 2 4 530
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 0 0 0 196 0 0 2 1,201
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 0 0 0 46 0 0 3 207
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 0 0 0 38 0 0 5 208
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 0 1 25 0 0 3 310
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 0 0 35 0 0 5 393
The Devil s Advocate Responds to an MBA Student s Claim that Research Harms Learning 0 0 0 192 0 3 7 701
The Graffiti Problem 0 0 3 352 1 4 21 3,919
The Graffiti Solution 0 0 0 165 0 2 11 1,248
The Importance of Objectivity and Falsification in Management Science 0 0 1 94 0 1 10 994
The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing 0 0 0 178 0 1 5 954
The Natural Learning Project 0 0 1 45 0 1 7 277
The Panalba Role Playing Case 0 0 2 241 0 2 12 928
The Profitability of Winning 0 0 0 70 0 0 5 283
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting 0 1 9 296 5 16 61 2,055
The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply 1 1 2 276 1 3 11 1,388
The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing 0 0 0 71 0 1 6 270
The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts? 0 0 1 68 0 0 5 400
Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973 0 0 1 97 0 0 5 420
Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts 0 0 0 47 0 1 11 240
Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge? 0 0 0 83 1 2 8 298
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 0 0 1 77 0 0 5 405
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 0 0 0 77 1 1 5 438
Total Working Papers 10 41 173 19,606 60 216 1,226 100,088


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
"How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus": Batchelor, Roy (2001), Applied Economics, 33, pp. 225-235. E-mail address: R.A.Batchelor@city.bc.uk 0 0 0 59 0 0 4 213
A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 25
A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts: Phillip A. Braun and Ilan Yaniv, Journal of behavioral decision making, 5 (1992), 217-231 1 1 4 65 1 1 5 189
A cautionary tale about multiple regression: Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1991) 48-49 0 0 1 55 1 2 12 245
Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison: R. Nada Sanders, Omega, 20 (1992) 353-364 0 2 6 69 0 3 8 225
Advocacy and Objectivity in Science 0 0 0 4 0 1 4 35
An analysis of the accuracy ot "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election: Richard R. Lau, 1994, Public opinion quarterly, 58, 2-20 0 0 1 26 0 0 5 158
An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge 0 0 0 31 0 0 2 157
Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment 0 0 0 22 0 0 3 163
Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting 1 1 1 37 2 3 25 194
Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods 0 1 1 55 0 1 4 254
Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote 0 0 1 16 0 1 7 351
Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote 0 0 0 7 0 0 10 43
Combining forecasts: An application to elections 0 1 5 13 0 5 19 49
Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? 0 3 5 19 1 5 17 96
Communication of research on forecasting: The journal 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 36
Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task 0 0 0 10 1 4 15 109
Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task 0 0 0 2 1 1 6 29
Conditions under which index models are useful: Reply to bio-index commentaries 0 0 0 5 0 0 4 66
Damped seasonality factors: Introduction 0 0 0 16 0 0 5 96
Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series 0 0 0 28 0 0 4 147
Decomposition of time-series by level and change 0 0 1 1 0 2 7 16
Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals 1 1 1 28 1 1 5 218
Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court 0 0 0 15 0 0 2 133
Editorial 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13
Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings 0 0 0 11 0 0 4 60
Editorial: Reflections on forecasting in the 1980's 0 0 1 10 0 0 1 72
Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies 0 1 1 8 0 2 10 73
Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons 2 3 13 213 4 13 55 725
Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities 0 0 0 13 0 0 5 126
Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms: William B. Gartner, and Robert J. Thomas, 1993, Journal of Productive Innovation Management, 10, 35-52 0 0 0 125 1 1 5 465
Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626 0 0 0 8 0 0 1 86
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error 0 0 0 51 1 2 9 204
Forecasting of software development work effort: Introduction 0 0 0 34 0 0 2 142
Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results: Nada Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, 1994, interfaces, 24, 92-100 1 1 8 224 2 5 20 566
Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact 0 0 0 81 0 0 3 292
Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 8
From the editors 0 0 2 6 0 0 3 44
Generalization and communication issues in the use of error measures: A reply 0 0 2 16 0 0 5 106
Golden rule of forecasting rearticulated: Forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you 0 0 0 1 0 1 6 10
Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative 0 1 5 7 0 4 22 32
Harvard Business Review: David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick, manager's guide to forecasting, 64 (Jan-Feb.) (1986) 110-120 2 7 24 559 4 16 69 1,376
Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series: P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553-568 0 0 0 41 0 0 2 144
How We Computed the Pollyvote 0 1 4 27 0 1 8 139
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 138
International journal of public administration: Lance Eliot Brouthers, parties, ideology and elections: The politics of federal revenues and expenditures forecasting, 8 (1986) 289-314 0 0 0 22 1 1 6 229
J. Scott Armstrong, Forecasting by extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 years of research, Interfaces 14 (1984), pp. 52-66 0 0 0 39 1 1 5 170
Journal of business forecasting: John Hanke and Pam Weigand, 1994, What are business schools doing to educate forecasters, Fall, 10-12 0 1 3 113 0 2 6 950
Journal of economic literature: Clifford Winston, 1993, Economic deregulation: Days of reckoning for microeconomists, 31, 1263-1289 0 1 3 130 0 2 11 439
Journal of personality and social psychology: Osberg, Timothy M. and J. Sidney Shrauger, Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy, 51 (1986), 1044-1057 0 0 0 31 0 0 3 259
Judgmental decomposition: when does it work? 0 0 1 19 0 0 6 133
Making progress in forecasting 0 0 0 22 0 0 2 77
Management science: D. Bunn and G. Wright, "Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis", 37 (1991) 501-518 0 0 1 62 0 0 2 166
Marketing letters: Barry L., Bayus, (1992), Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time? 3 215-226 0 0 1 54 0 2 11 257
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 2 2 6 79 6 14 66 388
Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives": Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696 0 1 3 24 0 1 6 138
Omega 21: G.L. Riddington, (1993), Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance, 573-583 0 0 0 38 0 0 2 142
Organizational behavior and human decision processes: Wagenaar, Willem A. and G.B. Keren, The seat belt paradox: Effect off accepted roles on information seeking,, 38 (1986), 1-6 0 1 1 17 0 1 2 146
P.E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Princeton University Press (2006) ISBN 978-0-691-12871-9 Paperback, 352 pp 0 0 0 95 0 0 5 266
Predicting Job Performance: The Moneyball Factor 1 1 4 36 2 2 20 147
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,: Ray C. Fair. Stanford University Press: Stanford, CA, 2002, 168 pp., Hardback, ISBN 0-8047-4509-9, $26.00 0 0 0 32 0 0 1 208
Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method 0 0 0 6 0 0 3 38
Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test: Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32 0 0 0 50 0 0 1 254
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings 0 0 0 25 0 0 2 115
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices 0 0 0 2 1 1 4 419
Public opinion quarterly: Jacob Shamir, preelection polls in Israel: Structural constraints on accuracy, 50 (1986) 62-75 0 0 0 7 0 1 2 84
Public opinion quarterly: James B. Lemert, picking the winners: Politician vs. voter predictions of two controversial ballot measures, 50 (1986) 208-221 0 0 0 7 0 0 2 100
Public opinion quarterly: Steven J. Rosenstone, John Mark Hansen, and Donald R. Kinder, measuring change in personal economic well-being, 50 (1986) 176-192 0 0 0 14 1 1 4 137
Public opinion quarterly: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources" 54 (1990) 609-626 0 0 0 18 0 0 1 177
Public opinion quarterly: William Buchanan, election predictions: An empirical assessment, 50 (1986) 222-227 0 1 2 13 0 1 5 67
Publication of research on controversial topics: The early acceptance procedure 1 1 1 11 1 1 3 184
Replication research's disturbing trend 0 2 2 41 1 3 10 132
Replications of forecasting research 1 1 2 11 1 1 7 53
Research on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 5
Research with In-built replications: Comment and further suggestions for replication research 0 0 0 3 1 2 9 28
Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts 0 0 0 7 0 0 27 150
Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 15
Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations 0 2 3 8 0 2 9 62
Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy? 0 0 1 60 0 2 19 280
Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings? 0 0 2 61 0 0 17 219
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting 0 1 4 22 0 1 9 106
Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence 0 0 4 16 0 0 22 59
Social irresponsibility in management 0 0 0 23 0 0 5 122
Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries 0 0 1 73 0 1 7 193
Structured analogies for forecasting 0 0 0 29 0 0 2 169
The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy 0 0 0 102 0 0 5 293
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 0 0 2 96 0 0 4 461
The PollyVote’s Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 44
The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts? 0 0 0 12 0 0 7 103
The fertile field of meta-analysis: Cumulative progress in agricultural forecasting 0 0 0 7 0 0 2 58
The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior: Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Marketing 6 (1989) 183-198 0 0 1 124 0 1 28 408
The great depression of 1990: Ravi Batra, (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) pp. 235, $14.95 1 1 1 50 1 1 7 239
The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting: R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, 1995, International Statistical Review, 63, 289-308 0 0 1 66 0 0 3 177
The uses and abuses of consensus forecasts: Stephen K. McNees,Journal of forecasting, 11 (1992) 703-710 1 3 3 115 1 4 8 264
The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis: Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615 0 0 3 313 0 0 8 838
The value of surprising findings for research on marketing 0 0 0 16 0 0 1 94
Validity of an honeesty test in predicting theft among convenience store employees: H. John Bernardin and D.K. Cooke, 1993 Academy of Management Journal, 36, 1097-1108 0 0 2 18 0 1 5 165
Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making 0 0 0 10 0 2 11 109
Total Journal Articles 15 43 145 4,279 39 128 838 18,604


Statistics updated 2017-07-04