Access Statistics for J. Scott Armstrong

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting 0 0 0 187 0 2 2 667
Advocacy and Objectivity in Science 0 0 0 78 0 2 4 568
Analyzing Quantitative Models 0 0 0 547 0 1 9 3,145
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? 0 0 0 38 0 1 2 371
Are Student Ratings of Instruction Useful? 0 0 1 95 0 1 4 330
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula 0 0 1 76 0 2 4 437
Benchmark forecasts for climate change 0 0 2 67 0 0 6 204
Book Review: Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, by Allen Tough, Chicago: Follette Publishing Co., 1982 0 0 0 34 0 3 4 279
Brand Trial After a Credibility Change 0 0 0 43 0 2 3 308
Brief vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase 0 0 0 116 0 2 3 418
Business School Prestige ^V Research versus Teaching 0 0 2 96 0 1 8 475
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation 0 0 0 139 0 1 5 776
Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney) 0 0 0 53 0 3 4 338
Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed 0 0 0 24 0 0 1 294
Commentary by J. Scott Armstrong on Fildes et al.: Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence 0 0 0 33 0 3 4 225
Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M- Competition) 0 1 2 522 0 2 15 1,773
Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal 0 0 0 50 0 1 2 221
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share 1 4 12 195 2 7 38 619
Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods 0 0 1 113 0 2 4 397
Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction 0 0 0 72 0 1 2 353
Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series 0 0 1 150 0 1 3 720
Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods 0 2 8 1,032 6 22 80 5,113
Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Analysis or Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine 0 0 4 176 0 1 9 710
Designing and Using Experiential Exercises 0 0 1 340 0 1 6 2,151
Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals 0 0 0 98 1 2 5 928
Does the Need for Agreement Among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings? 0 0 0 20 0 1 6 199
Eclectic Research and Construct Validation 0 0 1 96 0 2 8 905
Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups 0 0 1 121 0 1 3 1,051
Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability 0 0 1 208 0 1 5 1,174
Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results* 0 0 1 252 0 1 9 1,128
Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies 1 3 11 48 2 6 32 109
Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing? 0 0 0 60 1 2 8 996
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys 0 1 11 596 5 10 61 1,975
Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners 0 0 1 212 1 5 15 934
Evidence on the Value of Strategic Planning in Marketing: How Much Planning Should a Marketing Planner Plan? 0 1 2 410 0 3 5 1,358
Evidence on the effects of mandatory disclaimers in advertising 0 0 1 33 1 1 3 76
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies 0 0 1 52 0 0 5 162
Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations 0 0 0 104 1 2 5 687
Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research 1 1 3 453 2 6 18 1,848
Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research 0 0 0 158 0 0 2 554
Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections 0 0 0 71 0 1 6 182
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 0 0 0 81 0 3 4 269
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 0 0 1 143 0 2 6 527
Forecasting for Marketing 0 1 2 514 0 3 8 2,410
Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts 0 0 2 167 0 2 8 345
Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative 1 2 5 68 2 6 21 131
How Expert Are the Experts? 0 0 0 41 0 2 3 157
How Expert Are the Experts? 1 1 2 111 2 5 10 343
How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls^T 0 0 0 28 0 1 5 242
How to Avoid Exploratory Research 1 1 10 271 2 2 27 1,356
Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit 0 0 0 244 0 1 3 1,396
Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible? 0 0 1 110 0 1 3 254
Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply 0 0 0 19 0 1 2 194
Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series 0 0 0 143 0 1 4 483
Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears? 0 0 1 42 0 0 3 221
Learner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research (with Comments) 0 0 0 30 0 1 2 229
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 0 1 37 0 1 4 285
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 0 0 30 0 1 2 229
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 0 0 6 103 0 1 17 359
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys 0 0 1 123 1 2 4 502
On the Effectiveness of Marketing Planning 0 0 0 154 1 2 5 514
On the Interpretation of Factor Analysis 0 1 7 1,287 0 3 12 4,445
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation 0 0 0 156 1 2 8 719
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit 0 0 0 140 0 1 5 1,614
Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley 0 0 0 82 0 2 6 556
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates 0 1 2 78 0 1 8 554
Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions 0 0 1 134 0 1 4 916
Predicting elections from politicians’ faces 0 0 0 81 0 3 9 770
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings* 0 0 0 221 0 2 11 1,196
Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment 0 0 5 407 0 1 9 2,391
Publication Bias Against Null Results 0 0 1 58 0 1 8 312
Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial) 0 0 0 44 0 3 5 242
Quality Control Versus Innovation in Research on Marketing 0 0 0 128 0 1 4 674
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals 1 1 4 70 1 3 10 409
Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, with Reply to Commentators 2 2 3 91 4 10 30 814
Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings 0 0 2 59 0 1 4 352
Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary* 0 0 2 77 0 2 8 417
Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984 0 0 0 108 0 1 2 370
Research on Scientific Journals: Implications for Editors and Authors 0 0 0 82 1 2 3 367
Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis 0 0 2 73 0 3 10 615
Review of Don A. Dillman's Mail and Telephone Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978 0 0 0 170 0 3 5 1,285
Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences, New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1988 1 2 2 123 4 6 17 751
Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990 (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) 0 0 0 388 0 2 6 2,928
Review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (published by Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1983)) 1 1 1 96 1 2 3 537
Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things 0 0 1 66 0 0 1 258
Role Conflict: Society’s Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing 0 0 0 148 0 2 4 955
Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts 0 0 0 80 0 1 13 180
Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations 0 1 4 250 2 6 32 952
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions? 0 0 0 46 0 1 5 191
Social Irresponsibility in Management 0 0 0 82 0 1 4 581
Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals 1 1 1 1,473 1 3 11 7,139
Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance 0 0 2 275 0 2 7 846
Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach 0 0 1 246 0 2 4 1,413
Structured Analogies for Forecasting 1 1 1 156 1 5 14 700
Structured analogies for forecasting 0 0 1 66 0 1 10 241
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 0 0 0 102 0 2 5 532
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 0 1 1 197 0 2 3 1,203
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 0 0 0 38 0 1 2 209
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 0 0 0 46 0 2 3 209
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 0 0 35 1 2 4 395
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 0 0 25 0 2 2 312
The Devil s Advocate Responds to an MBA Student s Claim that Research Harms Learning 0 0 0 192 0 2 6 703
The Graffiti Problem 1 3 4 355 1 7 21 3,926
The Graffiti Solution 0 0 0 165 0 3 12 1,251
The Importance of Objectivity and Falsification in Management Science 0 0 0 94 0 2 4 996
The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing 0 0 0 178 0 1 2 955
The Natural Learning Project 1 1 2 46 1 1 6 279
The Panalba Role Playing Case 0 0 2 241 1 2 12 931
The Profitability of Winning 0 0 0 70 0 1 3 284
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting 1 2 6 298 7 14 57 2,075
The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply 1 1 2 277 3 6 15 1,397
The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing 0 0 0 71 0 1 2 271
The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts? 0 0 1 68 0 0 2 400
Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973 0 0 1 97 0 2 4 422
Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts 0 0 0 47 0 2 9 243
Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge? 0 0 0 83 0 0 4 298
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 0 0 0 77 0 1 2 439
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 0 0 1 77 0 1 3 406
Total Working Papers 17 37 164 19,647 60 281 1,034 100,430


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
"How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus": Batchelor, Roy (2001), Applied Economics, 33, pp. 225-235. E-mail address: R.A.Batchelor@city.bc.uk 0 1 1 60 0 2 5 215
A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 27
A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts: Phillip A. Braun and Ilan Yaniv, Journal of behavioral decision making, 5 (1992), 217-231 1 1 5 66 1 2 6 191
A cautionary tale about multiple regression: Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1991) 48-49 2 2 2 57 3 6 14 251
Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison: R. Nada Sanders, Omega, 20 (1992) 353-364 0 0 6 69 0 1 8 226
Advocacy and Objectivity in Science 0 0 0 4 1 2 4 37
An analysis of the accuracy ot "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election: Richard R. Lau, 1994, Public opinion quarterly, 58, 2-20 0 0 0 26 0 2 5 161
An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge 0 0 0 31 0 0 1 157
Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment 0 0 0 22 1 2 3 165
Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting 0 0 1 37 1 2 12 196
Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods 0 0 1 55 1 1 3 255
Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote 0 0 0 16 0 0 1 351
Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote 0 0 0 7 0 1 2 44
Combining forecasts: An application to elections 0 0 2 13 0 1 11 50
Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? 0 2 6 21 0 3 17 101
Communication of research on forecasting: The journal 0 0 0 4 0 1 1 37
Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task 0 0 0 10 1 3 17 113
Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 29
Conditions under which index models are useful: Reply to bio-index commentaries 0 0 0 5 0 1 3 67
Damped seasonality factors: Introduction 0 0 0 16 1 2 4 98
Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series 0 0 0 28 0 0 1 147
Decomposition of time-series by level and change 0 0 0 1 0 1 5 17
Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals 0 0 1 28 0 0 4 218
Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 133
Editorial 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 14
Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings 0 0 0 11 0 2 3 62
Editorial: Reflections on forecasting in the 1980's 0 0 1 10 0 1 2 73
Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies 0 0 1 8 2 3 9 76
Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons 0 0 11 213 4 9 46 734
Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities 0 0 0 13 0 1 2 127
Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms: William B. Gartner, and Robert J. Thomas, 1993, Journal of Productive Innovation Management, 10, 35-52 0 0 0 125 1 1 2 466
Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 86
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error 0 2 2 53 2 6 14 212
Forecasting of software development work effort: Introduction 0 1 1 35 0 1 2 143
Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results: Nada Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, 1994, interfaces, 24, 92-100 0 0 5 224 0 2 14 568
Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact 0 0 0 81 1 1 1 293
Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 8
From the editors 0 0 1 6 0 1 2 45
Generalization and communication issues in the use of error measures: A reply 0 0 1 16 0 1 2 107
Golden rule of forecasting rearticulated: Forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you 0 0 0 1 0 1 4 11
Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative 1 3 6 10 3 7 22 40
Harvard Business Review: David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick, manager's guide to forecasting, 64 (Jan-Feb.) (1986) 110-120 2 10 30 570 7 21 69 1,399
Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series: P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553-568 0 0 0 41 0 0 1 144
How We Computed the Pollyvote 0 0 1 27 0 1 3 140
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 140
International journal of public administration: Lance Eliot Brouthers, parties, ideology and elections: The politics of federal revenues and expenditures forecasting, 8 (1986) 289-314 0 0 0 22 0 0 2 229
J. Scott Armstrong, Forecasting by extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 years of research, Interfaces 14 (1984), pp. 52-66 0 1 1 40 0 2 5 172
Journal of business forecasting: John Hanke and Pam Weigand, 1994, What are business schools doing to educate forecasters, Fall, 10-12 0 0 3 113 1 1 6 951
Journal of economic literature: Clifford Winston, 1993, Economic deregulation: Days of reckoning for microeconomists, 31, 1263-1289 1 1 2 131 1 3 8 442
Journal of personality and social psychology: Osberg, Timothy M. and J. Sidney Shrauger, Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy, 51 (1986), 1044-1057 0 0 0 31 1 2 4 261
Judgmental decomposition: when does it work? 0 0 1 19 0 1 4 134
Making progress in forecasting 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 77
Management science: D. Bunn and G. Wright, "Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis", 37 (1991) 501-518 0 0 0 62 0 1 1 167
Marketing letters: Barry L., Bayus, (1992), Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time? 3 215-226 0 0 1 54 0 2 10 259
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 0 0 5 80 2 7 57 403
Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives": Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696 0 0 1 24 0 1 3 139
Omega 21: G.L. Riddington, (1993), Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance, 573-583 0 0 0 38 0 1 1 143
Organizational behavior and human decision processes: Wagenaar, Willem A. and G.B. Keren, The seat belt paradox: Effect off accepted roles on information seeking,, 38 (1986), 1-6 1 1 2 18 3 4 5 150
P.E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Princeton University Press (2006) ISBN 978-0-691-12871-9 Paperback, 352 pp 0 0 0 95 1 3 6 270
Predicting Job Performance: The Moneyball Factor 2 2 6 39 2 6 17 154
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,: Ray C. Fair. Stanford University Press: Stanford, CA, 2002, 168 pp., Hardback, ISBN 0-8047-4509-9, $26.00 0 0 0 32 0 1 1 209
Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method 0 0 0 6 0 1 3 39
Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test: Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32 0 0 0 50 0 1 1 255
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings 0 0 0 25 0 0 1 115
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices 0 2 2 4 0 4 5 423
Public opinion quarterly: Jacob Shamir, preelection polls in Israel: Structural constraints on accuracy, 50 (1986) 62-75 0 0 0 7 0 1 2 85
Public opinion quarterly: James B. Lemert, picking the winners: Politician vs. voter predictions of two controversial ballot measures, 50 (1986) 208-221 0 0 1 8 0 0 2 101
Public opinion quarterly: Steven J. Rosenstone, John Mark Hansen, and Donald R. Kinder, measuring change in personal economic well-being, 50 (1986) 176-192 0 0 0 14 0 1 4 138
Public opinion quarterly: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources" 54 (1990) 609-626 0 0 0 18 0 0 1 177
Public opinion quarterly: William Buchanan, election predictions: An empirical assessment, 50 (1986) 222-227 0 0 1 13 0 1 3 68
Publication of research on controversial topics: The early acceptance procedure 0 0 1 11 0 1 3 185
Replication research's disturbing trend 1 2 4 43 1 4 11 136
Replications of forecasting research 0 0 2 11 0 2 6 55
Research on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5
Research with In-built replications: Comment and further suggestions for replication research 0 0 0 3 0 2 7 30
Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts 0 0 0 7 0 2 14 153
Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 18
Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations 0 0 3 8 0 0 5 62
Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy? 0 0 1 60 3 3 15 284
Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings? 0 0 0 61 0 0 6 220
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting 0 1 3 23 0 1 4 107
Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence 1 3 6 19 3 7 22 66
Social irresponsibility in management 0 0 0 23 0 3 4 125
Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries 1 1 1 74 1 3 6 196
Structured analogies for forecasting 0 0 0 29 0 0 1 169
The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy 0 1 1 103 1 2 4 295
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 0 0 2 96 0 0 3 461
The PollyVote’s Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election 0 0 0 4 1 1 3 45
The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts? 0 0 0 12 0 2 5 105
The fertile field of meta-analysis: Cumulative progress in agricultural forecasting 0 0 0 7 0 2 3 60
The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior: Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Marketing 6 (1989) 183-198 0 0 0 124 0 2 11 410
The great depression of 1990: Ravi Batra, (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) pp. 235, $14.95 0 0 2 51 0 0 3 240
The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting: R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, 1995, International Statistical Review, 63, 289-308 0 0 0 66 0 0 1 177
The uses and abuses of consensus forecasts: Stephen K. McNees,Journal of forecasting, 11 (1992) 703-710 2 3 6 118 3 5 11 269
The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis: Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615 0 0 3 313 1 2 10 842
The value of surprising findings for research on marketing 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 94
Validity of an honeesty test in predicting theft among convenience store employees: H. John Bernardin and D.K. Cooke, 1993 Academy of Management Journal, 36, 1097-1108 0 0 0 18 0 0 4 167
Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making 0 0 0 10 0 0 3 109
Total Journal Articles 15 40 146 4,324 55 186 655 18,820


Statistics updated 2017-11-04