Access Statistics for J. Scott Armstrong

Author contact details at EconPapers.

Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting 0 0 0 187 1 1 1 666
Advocacy and Objectivity in Science 0 0 0 78 0 1 2 566
Analyzing Quantitative Models 0 0 0 547 0 1 9 3,144
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? 0 0 0 38 0 0 1 370
Are Student Ratings of Instruction Useful? 0 1 1 95 0 1 6 329
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula 0 0 1 76 0 0 2 435
Benchmark forecasts for climate change 0 0 2 67 0 1 7 204
Book Review: Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, by Allen Tough, Chicago: Follette Publishing Co., 1982 0 0 0 34 1 1 3 277
Brand Trial After a Credibility Change 0 0 0 43 1 2 3 307
Brief vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase 0 0 0 116 1 1 3 417
Business School Prestige ^V Research versus Teaching 0 0 2 96 0 2 10 474
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation 0 0 0 139 0 1 7 775
Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney) 0 0 1 53 0 0 3 335
Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed 0 0 0 24 0 0 1 294
Commentary by J. Scott Armstrong on Fildes et al.: Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence 0 0 0 33 0 0 1 222
Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M- Competition) 0 0 2 521 0 4 18 1,771
Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal 0 0 0 50 0 0 1 220
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share 2 3 11 193 3 9 36 615
Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods 0 0 1 113 0 0 2 395
Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction 0 0 0 72 0 0 3 352
Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series 0 1 1 150 0 1 4 719
Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods 2 2 11 1,032 6 14 88 5,097
Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Analysis or Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine 0 1 4 176 0 2 10 709
Designing and Using Experiential Exercises 0 0 1 340 0 0 6 2,150
Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals 0 0 0 98 0 0 4 926
Does the Need for Agreement Among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings? 0 0 0 20 0 1 7 198
Eclectic Research and Construct Validation 0 1 1 96 0 1 7 903
Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups 0 0 1 121 0 0 2 1,050
Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability 0 0 1 208 0 0 4 1,173
Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results* 0 0 1 252 0 0 9 1,127
Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies 1 1 9 46 3 5 30 106
Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing? 0 0 0 60 0 2 7 994
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys 0 1 12 595 2 14 67 1,967
Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners 0 0 1 212 1 3 14 930
Evidence on the Value of Strategic Planning in Marketing: How Much Planning Should a Marketing Planner Plan? 0 0 2 409 0 0 3 1,355
Evidence on the effects of mandatory disclaimers in advertising 0 0 1 33 0 0 3 75
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies 0 0 1 52 0 0 6 162
Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations 0 0 0 104 0 0 4 685
Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research 0 0 2 452 1 5 14 1,843
Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research 0 0 1 158 0 0 4 554
Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections 0 0 0 71 0 1 5 181
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 0 0 0 81 0 0 2 266
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 0 0 1 143 0 0 5 525
Forecasting for Marketing 1 1 2 514 1 2 8 2,408
Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts 0 0 2 167 0 1 8 343
Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative 1 1 4 67 2 5 20 127
How Expert Are the Experts? 0 0 0 41 1 1 4 156
How Expert Are the Experts? 0 0 1 110 1 2 7 339
How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls^T 0 0 0 28 0 0 4 241
How to Avoid Exploratory Research 0 1 9 270 0 7 27 1,354
Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit 0 0 0 244 0 0 3 1,395
Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible? 0 0 1 110 0 0 3 253
Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply 0 0 0 19 0 0 2 193
Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series 0 0 1 143 0 0 5 482
Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears? 0 1 1 42 0 1 4 221
Learner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research (with Comments) 0 0 0 30 0 0 1 228
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 0 0 30 0 0 1 228
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 0 1 37 0 1 4 284
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 0 0 6 103 0 2 22 358
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys 0 0 1 123 0 0 3 500
On the Effectiveness of Marketing Planning 0 0 0 154 0 0 3 512
On the Interpretation of Factor Analysis 1 2 9 1,287 1 3 13 4,443
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation 0 0 0 156 0 2 7 717
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit 0 0 0 140 0 1 8 1,613
Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley 0 0 1 82 1 1 6 555
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates 0 0 1 77 0 0 7 553
Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions 0 0 1 134 0 0 5 915
Predicting elections from politicians’ faces 0 0 2 81 1 3 13 768
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings* 0 0 0 221 0 1 11 1,194
Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment 0 0 6 407 0 0 10 2,390
Publication Bias Against Null Results 0 0 1 58 0 1 7 311
Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial) 0 0 0 44 0 0 5 239
Quality Control Versus Innovation in Research on Marketing 0 0 0 128 0 1 3 673
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals 0 0 4 69 0 0 9 406
Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, with Reply to Commentators 0 0 2 89 0 1 28 804
Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings 0 0 2 59 0 0 4 351
Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary* 0 0 2 77 1 1 7 416
Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984 0 0 0 108 0 0 2 369
Research on Scientific Journals: Implications for Editors and Authors 0 0 0 82 0 0 1 365
Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis 0 1 2 73 0 2 9 612
Review of Don A. Dillman's Mail and Telephone Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978 0 0 0 170 1 1 4 1,283
Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences, New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1988 1 1 1 122 1 2 15 746
Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990 (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) 0 0 0 388 0 0 9 2,926
Review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (published by Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1983)) 0 0 0 95 0 0 2 535
Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things 0 0 1 66 0 0 4 258
Role Conflict: Society’s Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing 0 0 0 148 0 0 2 953
Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts 0 0 0 80 0 2 14 179
Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations 1 4 5 250 1 9 32 947
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions? 0 0 0 46 0 0 4 190
Social Irresponsibility in Management 0 0 0 82 0 1 5 580
Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals 0 0 1 1,472 0 1 13 7,136
Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance 0 0 3 275 0 0 9 844
Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach 0 0 1 246 0 0 4 1,411
Structured Analogies for Forecasting 0 0 0 155 1 2 10 696
Structured analogies for forecasting 0 0 1 66 1 3 11 241
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 0 0 0 102 0 0 3 530
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 1 1 1 197 1 1 2 1,202
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 0 0 0 38 0 0 2 208
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 0 0 0 46 0 0 1 207
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 0 0 35 0 0 4 393
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 0 1 25 0 0 1 310
The Devil s Advocate Responds to an MBA Student s Claim that Research Harms Learning 0 0 0 192 0 0 5 701
The Graffiti Problem 1 1 4 353 2 3 22 3,921
The Graffiti Solution 0 0 0 165 1 1 11 1,249
The Importance of Objectivity and Falsification in Management Science 0 0 1 94 1 1 9 995
The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing 0 0 0 178 0 0 2 954
The Natural Learning Project 0 0 1 45 0 1 6 278
The Panalba Role Playing Case 0 0 2 241 1 2 13 930
The Profitability of Winning 0 0 0 70 0 0 3 283
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting 1 1 8 297 2 13 54 2,063
The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply 0 1 2 276 1 5 12 1,392
The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing 0 0 0 71 0 0 4 270
The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts? 0 0 1 68 0 0 3 400
Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973 0 0 1 97 0 0 2 420
Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts 0 0 0 47 1 2 9 242
Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge? 0 0 0 83 0 1 6 298
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 0 0 0 77 0 1 4 438
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 0 0 1 77 0 0 3 405
Total Working Papers 13 27 170 19,623 44 165 1,027 100,193


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
"How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus": Batchelor, Roy (2001), Applied Economics, 33, pp. 225-235. E-mail address: R.A.Batchelor@city.bc.uk 0 0 0 59 0 0 3 213
A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 26
A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts: Phillip A. Braun and Ilan Yaniv, Journal of behavioral decision making, 5 (1992), 217-231 0 1 4 65 0 1 4 189
A cautionary tale about multiple regression: Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1991) 48-49 0 0 0 55 1 2 9 246
Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison: R. Nada Sanders, Omega, 20 (1992) 353-364 0 0 6 69 0 0 7 225
Advocacy and Objectivity in Science 0 0 0 4 0 0 2 35
An analysis of the accuracy ot "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election: Richard R. Lau, 1994, Public opinion quarterly, 58, 2-20 0 0 1 26 0 1 5 159
An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge 0 0 0 31 0 0 1 157
Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment 0 0 0 22 0 0 2 163
Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting 0 1 1 37 0 2 17 194
Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods 0 0 1 55 0 0 3 254
Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote 0 0 1 16 0 0 6 351
Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote 0 0 0 7 1 1 7 44
Combining forecasts: An application to elections 0 0 3 13 0 0 15 49
Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? 2 2 6 21 2 5 19 100
Communication of research on forecasting: The journal 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 36
Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task 0 0 0 10 0 2 15 110
Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task 0 0 0 2 0 1 3 29
Conditions under which index models are useful: Reply to bio-index commentaries 0 0 0 5 0 0 3 66
Damped seasonality factors: Introduction 0 0 0 16 0 0 4 96
Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series 0 0 0 28 0 0 3 147
Decomposition of time-series by level and change 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 16
Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals 0 1 1 28 0 1 4 218
Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court 0 0 0 15 0 0 1 133
Editorial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings 0 0 0 11 0 0 1 60
Editorial: Reflections on forecasting in the 1980's 0 0 1 10 0 0 1 72
Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies 0 0 1 8 0 0 8 73
Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons 0 2 12 213 3 7 52 728
Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities 0 0 0 13 0 0 3 126
Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms: William B. Gartner, and Robert J. Thomas, 1993, Journal of Productive Innovation Management, 10, 35-52 0 0 0 125 0 1 1 465
Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 86
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error 1 1 1 52 2 5 12 208
Forecasting of software development work effort: Introduction 1 1 1 35 1 1 2 143
Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results: Nada Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, 1994, interfaces, 24, 92-100 0 1 7 224 0 2 17 566
Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact 0 0 0 81 0 0 1 292
Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 8
From the editors 0 0 2 6 0 0 2 44
Generalization and communication issues in the use of error measures: A reply 0 0 1 16 0 0 2 106
Golden rule of forecasting rearticulated: Forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 10
Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative 0 0 3 7 1 2 20 34
Harvard Business Review: David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick, manager's guide to forecasting, 64 (Jan-Feb.) (1986) 110-120 4 7 29 564 6 12 70 1,384
Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series: P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553-568 0 0 0 41 0 0 1 144
How We Computed the Pollyvote 0 0 3 27 1 1 7 140
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 139
International journal of public administration: Lance Eliot Brouthers, parties, ideology and elections: The politics of federal revenues and expenditures forecasting, 8 (1986) 289-314 0 0 0 22 0 1 5 229
J. Scott Armstrong, Forecasting by extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 years of research, Interfaces 14 (1984), pp. 52-66 1 1 1 40 1 2 4 171
Journal of business forecasting: John Hanke and Pam Weigand, 1994, What are business schools doing to educate forecasters, Fall, 10-12 0 0 3 113 0 0 5 950
Journal of economic literature: Clifford Winston, 1993, Economic deregulation: Days of reckoning for microeconomists, 31, 1263-1289 0 0 1 130 0 0 8 439
Journal of personality and social psychology: Osberg, Timothy M. and J. Sidney Shrauger, Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy, 51 (1986), 1044-1057 0 0 0 31 0 0 2 259
Judgmental decomposition: when does it work? 0 0 1 19 0 0 4 133
Making progress in forecasting 0 0 0 22 0 0 1 77
Management science: D. Bunn and G. Wright, "Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis", 37 (1991) 501-518 0 0 1 62 0 0 1 166
Marketing letters: Barry L., Bayus, (1992), Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time? 3 215-226 0 0 1 54 0 0 9 257
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 0 3 7 80 2 16 67 398
Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives": Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696 0 0 3 24 0 0 5 138
Omega 21: G.L. Riddington, (1993), Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance, 573-583 0 0 0 38 0 0 1 142
Organizational behavior and human decision processes: Wagenaar, Willem A. and G.B. Keren, The seat belt paradox: Effect off accepted roles on information seeking,, 38 (1986), 1-6 0 0 1 17 0 0 1 146
P.E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Princeton University Press (2006) ISBN 978-0-691-12871-9 Paperback, 352 pp 0 0 0 95 0 1 3 267
Predicting Job Performance: The Moneyball Factor 0 2 4 37 2 5 19 150
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,: Ray C. Fair. Stanford University Press: Stanford, CA, 2002, 168 pp., Hardback, ISBN 0-8047-4509-9, $26.00 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 208
Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method 0 0 0 6 0 0 2 38
Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test: Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 254
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings 0 0 0 25 0 0 1 115
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices 2 2 2 4 2 3 3 421
Public opinion quarterly: Jacob Shamir, preelection polls in Israel: Structural constraints on accuracy, 50 (1986) 62-75 0 0 0 7 0 0 1 84
Public opinion quarterly: James B. Lemert, picking the winners: Politician vs. voter predictions of two controversial ballot measures, 50 (1986) 208-221 0 1 1 8 0 1 2 101
Public opinion quarterly: Steven J. Rosenstone, John Mark Hansen, and Donald R. Kinder, measuring change in personal economic well-being, 50 (1986) 176-192 0 0 0 14 0 1 4 137
Public opinion quarterly: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources" 54 (1990) 609-626 0 0 0 18 0 0 1 177
Public opinion quarterly: William Buchanan, election predictions: An empirical assessment, 50 (1986) 222-227 0 0 2 13 0 0 3 67
Publication of research on controversial topics: The early acceptance procedure 0 1 1 11 0 1 2 184
Replication research's disturbing trend 0 0 2 41 0 1 9 132
Replications of forecasting research 0 1 2 11 0 1 4 53
Research on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5
Research with In-built replications: Comment and further suggestions for replication research 0 0 0 3 0 1 6 28
Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts 0 0 0 7 1 2 18 152
Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 17
Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations 0 0 3 8 0 0 8 62
Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy? 0 0 1 60 0 1 13 281
Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings? 0 0 0 61 0 1 8 220
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting 0 0 3 22 0 0 5 106
Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence 0 0 3 16 0 0 18 59
Social irresponsibility in management 0 0 0 23 1 1 3 123
Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries 0 0 1 73 1 1 6 194
Structured analogies for forecasting 0 0 0 29 0 0 1 169
The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy 1 1 1 103 1 1 4 294
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 0 0 2 96 0 0 3 461
The PollyVote’s Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election 0 0 0 4 0 0 3 44
The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts? 0 0 0 12 0 0 5 103
The fertile field of meta-analysis: Cumulative progress in agricultural forecasting 0 0 0 7 0 0 1 58
The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior: Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Marketing 6 (1989) 183-198 0 0 1 124 0 0 18 408
The great depression of 1990: Ravi Batra, (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) pp. 235, $14.95 0 2 2 51 0 2 6 240
The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting: R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, 1995, International Statistical Review, 63, 289-308 0 0 1 66 0 0 2 177
The uses and abuses of consensus forecasts: Stephen K. McNees,Journal of forecasting, 11 (1992) 703-710 0 1 3 115 0 1 7 264
The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis: Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615 0 0 3 313 0 2 8 840
The value of surprising findings for research on marketing 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 94
Validity of an honeesty test in predicting theft among convenience store employees: H. John Bernardin and D.K. Cooke, 1993 Academy of Management Journal, 36, 1097-1108 0 0 2 18 0 2 6 167
Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making 0 0 0 10 0 0 9 109
Total Journal Articles 12 32 144 4,296 31 100 677 18,665


Statistics updated 2017-09-03