Access Statistics for J. Scott Armstrong

Author contact details at EconPapers.

Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting 1 5 17 132 6 17 87 452
Advocacy and Objectivity in Science 0 1 10 58 5 17 87 385
Analyzing Quantitative Models 5 29 134 343 57 169 738 1,579
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? 1 1 5 28 6 13 58 250
Are Student Ratings of Instruction Useful? 1 3 5 58 5 11 43 158
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula 1 3 7 47 6 16 65 255
Book Review: Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, by Allen Tough, Chicago: Follette Publishing Co., 1982 0 0 4 25 3 8 49 198
Brand Trial After a Credibility Change 0 0 5 31 5 11 51 186
Brief vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase 1 4 18 72 6 15 76 242
Business School Prestige ^V Research versus Teaching 0 2 12 63 11 26 103 291
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation 2 4 15 87 10 32 106 425
Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney) 1 2 5 34 5 11 52 216
Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed 0 0 4 18 6 15 57 220
Commentary by J. Scott Armstrong on Fildes et al.: <93>Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence,<94> 0 0 1 29 4 12 34 148
Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M- Competition) 4 12 53 201 19 43 156 626
Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal 2 4 9 37 8 11 42 151
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share 1 5 20 135 6 24 101 382
Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods 1 1 8 78 5 9 46 262
Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction 0 0 3 57 6 14 48 232
Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series 2 6 22 107 9 26 127 466
Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods 20 55 231 623 148 315 1,133 2,449
Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Analysis or Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine 2 4 17 99 10 27 99 322
Designing and Using Experiential Exercises 4 12 52 206 35 100 395 1,108
Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals 1 3 8 65 15 30 109 586
Does the Need for Agreement Among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings? 0 0 0 17 2 4 31 134
Eclectic Research and Construct Validation 0 1 10 49 9 31 132 497
Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups 2 4 18 72 11 31 167 531
Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability 0 8 40 160 24 54 314 673
Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results* 4 15 39 172 20 56 178 713
Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing? 0 4 9 36 7 117 252 497
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys 6 15 83 359 21 61 284 1,047
Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners 1 6 32 135 13 36 171 535
Evidence on the Value of Strategic Planning in Marketing: How Much Planning Should a Marketing Planner Plan? 1 12 62 306 12 68 266 874
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies 19 19 19 19 14 14 14 14
Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations 1 4 13 77 6 23 108 455
Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research 3 10 54 201 12 38 203 645
Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research 0 3 17 97 4 16 70 297
Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections 0 0 48 48 4 12 58 58
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 1 3 9 63 5 13 48 182
Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making 0 6 10 97 7 25 58 301
Forecasting for Marketing 5 10 61 313 26 62 324 1,059
Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts 0 3 67 120 12 26 158 169
How Expert Are the Experts? 0 1 4 24 2 5 29 112
How Expert Are the Experts? 0 0 7 80 5 8 39 169
How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls^T 0 0 3 17 5 8 40 143
How to Avoid Exploratory Research 3 9 39 164 21 56 276 725
Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit 5 10 31 179 23 63 264 890
Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible? 1 3 9 88 3 8 46 165
Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply 0 0 3 14 2 4 36 127
Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series 3 8 22 97 11 28 93 279
Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears? 0 0 5 31 2 6 38 145
Learner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research (with Comments) 0 0 0 22 2 6 40 146
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 1 1 20 4 12 43 166
Market Share Superstition (Letter) 0 0 4 28 2 8 48 195
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 2 9 45 45 11 31 125 125
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys 1 1 7 84 5 12 67 334
On the Effectiveness of Marketing Planning 0 0 19 117 5 20 91 370
On the Interpretation of Factor Analysis 12 49 184 494 44 147 540 1,335
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation 2 3 24 103 14 41 142 422
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit 4 6 56 56 68 122 503 503
Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley 2 4 14 58 8 23 96 311
Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions 4 9 27 75 15 45 152 434
Predicting elections from politicians’ faces 4 27 27 27 20 56 56 56
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings* 2 5 20 126 24 50 171 598
Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment 5 18 92 254 44 143 566 1,300
Publication Bias Against Null Results 1 1 9 36 2 7 52 193
Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial) 0 0 4 34 2 8 44 165
Quality Control Versus Innovation in Research on Marketing 2 4 13 80 16 34 114 388
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals 0 0 8 51 3 8 71 283
Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, with Reply to Commentators 0 0 1 39 5 10 56 273
Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings 1 4 9 42 4 17 54 234
Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary* 0 0 9 49 4 11 62 244
Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984 0 1 11 85 4 14 72 265
Research on Scientific Journals: Implications for Editors and Authors 2 4 12 60 8 17 72 259
Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis 1 2 15 49 8 26 110 415
Review of Don A. Dillman's Mail and Telephone Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978 3 10 29 105 14 43 244 924
Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences, New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1988 0 0 28 69 4 11 121 361
Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990 (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) 2 11 49 218 28 88 447 1,736
Review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (published by Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1983)) 0 5 9 47 5 17 67 279
Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things 1 3 11 50 3 11 46 175
Role Conflict: Society’s Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing 0 2 25 110 7 21 130 589
Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations 2 3 24 156 8 33 130 470
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions? 0 0 1 27 2 5 30 126
Social Irresponsibility in Management 0 3 12 51 6 17 90 339
Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals 21 74 264 579 101 293 993 1,929
Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance 3 6 34 177 18 38 136 492
Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach 3 12 49 182 20 58 269 872
Structured Analogies for Forecasting 4 7 19 98 10 23 99 323
Structured analogies for forecasting 1 3 9 54 5 11 41 175
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 1 5 18 59 7 31 127 300
Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education 2 9 34 92 12 41 154 397
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 0 0 2 26 2 6 36 125
The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards 1 1 6 27 3 8 37 121
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 1 1 20 3 13 53 194
The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship 0 0 1 30 3 16 66 267
The Devil<92>s Advocate Responds to an MBA Student<92>s Claim that Research Harms Learning 2 9 40 135 6 27 96 298
The Graffiti Problem 0 3 38 172 16 68 529 1,504
The Graffiti Solution 0 1 23 120 11 34 226 713
The Importance of Objectivity and Falsification in Management Science 0 1 9 57 15 38 177 486
The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing 2 5 18 142 11 32 115 701
The Natural Learning Project 0 0 5 30 2 9 46 166
The Panalba Role Playing Case 5 11 39 140 16 39 144 461
The Profitability of Winning 0 0 5 54 2 6 34 191
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting 7 16 49 128 25 66 189 777
The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply 3 4 50 161 19 36 276 740
The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing 0 1 7 40 4 11 43 160
The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts? 0 1 8 58 5 13 61 280
Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973 2 3 8 67 6 16 65 266
Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts 0 1 4 35 7 11 32 130
Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge? 1 2 17 68 5 46 129 154
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 0 2 11 57 5 10 69 274
Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes? 1 2 9 50 5 12 70 252
Total Working Papers 217 675 2,955 11,393 1,422 3,971 16,523 49,786


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
"How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus": Batchelor, Roy (2001), Applied Economics, 33, pp. 225-235. E-mail address: R.A.Batchelor@city.bc.uk 0 0 2 16 2 3 19 110
A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts: Phillip A. Braun and Ilan Yaniv, Journal of behavioral decision making, 5 (1992), 217-231 1 2 13 35 4 7 38 113
A cautionary tale about multiple regression: Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1991) 48-49 1 1 10 32 3 8 42 142
Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison: R. Nada Sanders, Omega, 20 (1992) 353-364 0 1 6 42 1 7 25 155
An analysis of the accuracy ot "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election: Richard R. Lau, 1994, Public opinion quarterly, 58, 2-20 0 0 5 15 0 1 17 91
An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge 0 1 4 25 1 3 12 100
Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment 0 0 3 13 1 6 17 84
Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting 0 2 4 25 1 6 18 100
Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods 0 1 4 30 1 3 22 132
Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? 0 1 3 6 0 3 12 29
Communication of research on forecasting: The journal 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 10
Damped seasonality factors: Introduction 0 1 3 14 0 2 6 64
Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series 0 0 1 21 2 5 15 84
Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals 1 1 3 21 4 7 17 146
Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court 0 0 2 12 0 5 23 96
Editorial 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5
Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings 0 0 2 9 1 1 6 36
Editorial: Reflections on forecasting in the 1980's 0 0 2 6 0 1 10 31
Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons 0 1 10 99 3 15 50 316
Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities 0 0 1 7 1 3 6 42
Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms: William B. Gartner, and Robert J. Thomas, 1993, Journal of Productive Innovation Management, 10, 35-52 0 3 12 89 6 13 78 339
Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626 0 0 1 6 1 3 10 60
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error 1 4 14 25 1 7 34 69
Forecasting of software development work effort: Introduction 3 3 19 19 6 16 61 61
Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results: Nada Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, 1994, interfaces, 24, 92-100 1 2 17 87 3 8 48 215
Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact 1 4 10 56 3 10 32 181
From the editors 0 0 1 1 1 2 5 14
Generalization and communication issues in the use of error measures: A reply 0 0 0 3 0 1 9 39
Harvard Business Review: David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick, manager's guide to forecasting, 64 (Jan-Feb.) (1986) 110-120 1 4 31 81 7 17 82 207
Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series: P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553-568 1 2 6 35 2 3 19 116
How We Computed the Pollyvote 0 1 7 11 2 16 34 62
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces 0 0 0 0 1 5 11 94
International journal of public administration: Lance Eliot Brouthers, parties, ideology and elections: The politics of federal revenues and expenditures forecasting, 8 (1986) 289-314 0 0 7 12 7 10 44 106
J. Scott Armstrong, Forecasting by extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 years of research, Interfaces 14 (1984), pp. 52-66 0 1 5 17 2 8 42 80
Journal of business forecasting: John Hanke and Pam Weigand, 1994, What are business schools doing to educate forecasters, Fall, 10-12 1 4 22 94 8 30 152 780
Journal of economic literature: Clifford Winston, 1993, Economic deregulation: Days of reckoning for microeconomists, 31, 1263-1289 1 4 20 64 2 7 48 221
Journal of personality and social psychology: Osberg, Timothy M. and J. Sidney Shrauger, Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy, 51 (1986), 1044-1057 1 1 5 13 8 13 52 105
Judgmental decomposition: when does it work? 0 0 1 14 0 3 14 86
Making progress in forecasting 0 0 1 17 0 2 8 47
Management science: D. Bunn and G. Wright, "Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis", 37 (1991) 501-518 1 2 6 37 2 3 10 92
Marketing letters: Barry L., Bayus, (1992), Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time? 3 215-226 0 0 4 35 0 3 26 165
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared 0 6 20 20 7 25 75 75
Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives": Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696 0 0 2 11 2 6 25 89
Omega 21: G.L. Riddington, (1993), Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance, 573-583 0 0 6 30 2 10 30 101
Organizational behavior and human decision processes: Wagenaar, Willem A. and G.B. Keren, The seat belt paradox: Effect off accepted roles on information seeking,, 38 (1986), 1-6 1 1 2 7 6 12 32 62
P.E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Princeton University Press (2006) ISBN 978-0-691-12871-9 Paperback, 352 pp 1 6 24 25 2 17 62 67
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,: Ray C. Fair. Stanford University Press: Stanford, CA, 2002, 168 pp., Hardback, ISBN 0-8047-4509-9, $26.00 0 0 3 22 2 5 20 151
Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test: Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32 1 2 8 37 1 13 51 193
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings 1 1 2 8 4 5 21 45
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices 0 0 2 2 3 11 67 238
Public opinion quarterly: Jacob Shamir, preelection polls in Israel: Structural constraints on accuracy, 50 (1986) 62-75 0 0 0 4 2 5 18 41
Public opinion quarterly: James B. Lemert, picking the winners: Politician vs. voter predictions of two controversial ballot measures, 50 (1986) 208-221 0 0 0 2 1 5 12 27
Public opinion quarterly: Steven J. Rosenstone, John Mark Hansen, and Donald R. Kinder, measuring change in personal economic well-being, 50 (1986) 176-192 0 0 1 4 4 7 33 69
Public opinion quarterly: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources" 54 (1990) 609-626 1 1 3 13 1 6 21 124
Public opinion quarterly: William Buchanan, election predictions: An empirical assessment, 50 (1986) 222-227 0 0 0 1 0 4 14 27
Publication of research on controversial topics: The early acceptance procedure 0 0 0 10 1 2 18 152
Replication research's disturbing trend 1 2 9 21 2 8 27 62
Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy? 0 2 12 35 2 8 39 126
Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings? 0 0 6 27 2 10 37 97
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting 0 1 6 9 5 10 32 40
Social irresponsibility in management 0 0 2 8 0 0 20 39
Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries 0 7 21 23 1 16 57 64
Structured analogies for forecasting 1 1 9 9 4 13 44 44
The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy 0 7 21 43 0 14 54 125
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 0 8 35 84 7 42 173 375
The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts? 0 0 4 8 0 6 21 69
The fertile field of meta-analysis: Cumulative progress in agricultural forecasting 0 0 2 6 0 0 3 42
The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior: Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Marketing 6 (1989) 183-198 0 3 10 81 3 16 40 257
The great depression of 1990: Ravi Batra, (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) pp. 235, $14.95 1 4 12 19 1 14 65 109
The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting: R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, 1995, International Statistical Review, 63, 289-308 1 1 11 38 2 3 25 93
The uses and abuses of consensus forecasts: Stephen K. McNees,Journal of forecasting, 11 (1992) 703-710 0 0 12 55 1 4 37 139
The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis: Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615 2 9 51 187 5 22 111 421
The value of surprising findings for research on marketing 0 0 1 12 0 1 12 63
Validity of an honeesty test in predicting theft among convenience store employees: H. John Bernardin and D.K. Cooke, 1993 Academy of Management Journal, 36, 1097-1108 1 2 7 13 1 10 34 106
Total Journal Articles 28 112 572 2,021 162 597 2,509 8,757


Statistics updated 2008-09-04