Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 0 1 4 1,694
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 1 1 252 0 1 8 728
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 1 1 4 1,469 2 5 18 4,217
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 1 2 13 1,525 1 5 38 3,168
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 0 0 6 1,661
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 0 0 0 481
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 613
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 1 3 13 1,456
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 1 1 31 1 5 8 72
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 1 1 1 26 1 2 6 78
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 1 3 40 1 4 8 98
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 103
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 1 1 4 111 1 2 7 126
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 2 2 309 1 3 9 697
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 1 2 2 510 1 2 4 2,672
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 3 9 25 2,518 4 19 95 4,840
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 0 0 0 1,532
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 0 1 5 2,351 2 5 23 5,385
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 0 223 0 5 7 698
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 273
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 2 7 0 1 4 60
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 0 1 3 50
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 2 8 184 2 16 35 473
Diffusion Indexes 0 1 18 1,449 1 7 50 2,995
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 1 1 9 390 2 10 41 1,212
Dynamic Factor Models 0 2 8 120 2 10 27 299
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 0 0 0 1,195
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 0 1 4 684
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 167 0 0 0 665
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 2 255 0 0 3 583
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 1 3 849 0 4 11 2,057
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 0 5 14 623
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 1 3 24 490 7 19 72 1,201
Forecasting Inflation 0 1 8 3,391 0 2 17 7,776
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 1 1 1 907 2 4 8 2,091
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 1 1 1,889 1 2 9 4,671
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 0 19 1 3 4 87
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 0 1,033 0 0 7 4,358
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 2 1,063 1 1 6 4,314
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 1 5 108 0 1 12 214
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 0 2 5 1,627 1 10 38 4,049
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 0 0 1 335
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 0 0 0 732
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 0 1 6 86
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 1 116 0 2 6 158
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 0 0 1 172
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 0 2 6 682 0 2 13 1,835
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 1 97 0 0 1 477
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 243
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 0 2 29
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 0 0 1 123
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 0 0 2 89
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 1 95 0 0 2 412
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 2 416 2 4 21 977
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 0 2 211 1 2 11 1,982
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 0 0 3 2,553
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 0 0 1 961 3 8 28 2,424
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 3 162 0 0 20 301
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 2 58 1 1 13 122
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 1 1 2 1,135
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 0 246 2 3 6 672
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 1 2 2 561
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 0 2 2 252
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 0 3 192 0 3 8 631
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 0 2 7 401
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 0 1 4 88 0 1 15 301
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 4 443 0 0 14 1,014
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 0 1 2 3,082
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 1 1 936 0 3 5 2,152
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 1 6 17 1,460
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 0 0 4 1,149
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 244
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 0 1 2 746
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 218
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 343
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 0 4 4 134
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 0 1 2 146
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 1 1 2 8 1 2 5 27
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 30
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 1 1 1 66 1 1 3 112
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 1 1 2 1,573
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 676
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 1 1 1 755 1 2 2 2,286
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 566
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 1 2 3 814 1 4 16 1,978
Total Working Papers 16 47 195 34,986 56 228 888 105,523


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 11 1,726 5 11 51 4,193
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 1 3 11 419 3 13 106 1,211
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 1 320 0 1 3 775
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 0 0 469 0 0 3 1,225
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 1 6 9 997 2 11 25 2,571
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 0 0 2 564 0 1 6 1,069
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 0 0 1 155
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 0 0 2 1,036
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 0 1 2 1,006
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 0 0 1 284 0 1 12 878
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 12
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 117
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 0 0 4 806
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 1 2 4 44 2 6 16 199
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 1 15 152 9 17 78 572
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 0 2 18 160 6 22 86 659
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 1 47 0 0 2 155
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 0 2 4 166
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 104 0 0 0 370
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 3 77 0 1 7 283
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 2 14 46 1,106
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 1 228 0 1 2 1,037
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 1 2 7 176 4 9 36 2,209
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 3 5 14 1,492 6 12 42 2,897
Forecasting inflation 0 6 31 1,681 6 19 93 4,187
Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices 0 0 0 563 0 2 7 1,491
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 2 2 4 144 3 5 13 517
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 0 3 88
Has the business cycle changed? 0 0 1 687 2 2 8 1,573
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 3 173 2 3 14 652
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 1 10 0 2 5 46
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 0 0 2 306
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 1 1 10 56 5 8 70 325
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 0 1 1 68
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 257
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 2 3 15 1,750 7 16 67 4,362
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 1 76 0 0 3 281
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 0 0 2 367
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 1 1 1 185 1 1 2 431
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 1 1 3 158
Long†Run Covariability 0 0 0 5 1 2 5 78
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 50
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 112
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 0 1 1 96
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 5 12 45 2,813
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 0 1 2 335 0 2 4 832
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 0 1 1 89
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 2 477 0 0 5 1,396
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 1 22 1 2 5 104
Modeling inflation after the crisis 2 2 8 186 3 5 21 764
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 0 1 1 738 0 6 18 2,310
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 0 0 2 57
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 940
On the sources of the Great Moderation - discussion 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 52
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 1 1 8 216 4 7 34 727
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 6 167 1 2 60 934
Recent changes in trend and cycle, remarks 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 31
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 0 1 1 45
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 0 0 82 0 0 2 188
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 68
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 3 443 3 19 45 1,518
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 1 18 414 0 6 38 1,370
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 281
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 1 4 11 2,490 4 13 39 6,479
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 1 1 479 0 1 3 819
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 3 5 27 626 8 21 183 2,116
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 1 2 214 0 4 8 587
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 270
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 0 2 4 199
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 0 1 2 604
Testing long-run neutrality 0 0 0 755 0 2 6 1,795
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 0 2 3 154
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 42
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 1 1 1 41 1 1 4 190
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 1 1 4 1,371 3 24 32 5,514
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 1 2 4 1,430
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 40
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 539 8 10 14 1,038
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 3 97 0 0 6 377
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 0 522 2 3 8 1,812
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 2 2 551 1 3 7 1,093
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 1 132 0 0 2 280
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 3 837 0 0 5 1,621
Vector Autoregressions 3 7 44 1,810 13 33 177 3,915
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 77
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 0 1 18 0 0 4 46
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 8 14 53 3,116
Total Journal Articles 26 62 314 28,936 135 388 1,685 88,469


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 554
Total Books 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 554


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 2 198 0 0 20 453
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 2 2 11 258 8 13 47 795
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 1 2 14 2,964 6 13 54 6,944
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 1 1 2 7 2 4 7 22
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 1 2 3 37 1 2 3 77
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 35
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 0 0 1 71
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 3 10 93 756 9 39 260 1,992
Forecasting with Many Predictors 0 2 9 789 2 6 28 1,973
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 1 3 439 1 5 37 1,175
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 1 2 4 201 3 6 16 822
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 1 1 5 241
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 0 1 7 1,387 3 14 47 3,089
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 2 287 6 11 33 1,037
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 0 1 498 1 3 11 1,038
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 2 3 856 1 5 12 1,810
Total Chapters 9 25 154 8,802 45 123 582 21,575


Statistics updated 2025-05-12