Access Statistics for Michael Peter Clements

Author contact details at EconPapers.

Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A COMPARISON OF THE FORECAST PERFORMANCE OF MARKOV-SWITCHING AND THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS OF US GNP 0 0 1 13 1 6 11 65
A Comparison of the Forecasting Performance of Markov-Switching and Threshold Autoregressive Models of US GNP 0 0 0 25 0 1 3 1,158
A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical Setar Models 0 0 0 10 1 16 23 271
An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters 0 0 1 1 1 3 12 18
An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks 0 0 2 116 1 6 18 213
Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets 0 0 0 61 0 8 11 76
Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency 0 0 0 75 0 3 7 116
Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative? 0 0 0 69 4 5 6 84
Assessing Macro Uncertainty In Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision 0 0 0 48 1 3 5 105
Assessing Macro-Forecaster Herding: Modelling versus Testing 0 0 0 33 1 4 8 63
Assessing the Evidence of Macro- Forecaster Herding: Forecasts of Inflation and Output Growth 0 0 0 39 0 4 8 68
Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisation and Testing based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions 0 0 0 6 0 8 18 49
Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression 0 0 1 200 2 6 10 780
Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables 0 0 0 100 5 8 17 227
Do Professional Forecasters Pay Attention to Data Releases? 0 0 0 48 1 7 16 135
Do Professional Forecasters Pay Attention to Data Releases? 0 0 0 3 0 10 15 43
Do Professional Forecasters' Phillips Curves Incorporate the Beliefs of Others? 0 0 0 9 1 7 7 17
Do Survey Joiners and Leavers Differ from Regular Participants? The US SPF GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts 0 0 0 19 0 10 24 58
Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate Their Differences? 0 0 0 37 1 5 8 62
Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data? 0 0 0 25 0 8 15 87
EVALUATING THE FORECAST DENSITIES OF LINEAR AND NON-LINEAR MODELS: APPLICATIONS TO OUTPUT GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT 0 0 2 13 1 4 12 40
Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research 0 0 1 8 0 12 30 78
Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research 0 0 2 412 1 6 9 990
Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research 0 0 0 493 2 17 24 845
Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research 0 0 2 451 1 6 15 994
Evaluating The Forecast of Densities of Linear and Non-Linear Models: Applications to Output Growth and Unemployment 0 0 1 19 0 2 7 664
Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-Event Forecasts 0 0 0 7 0 4 11 369
Evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts 0 0 0 8 0 2 5 36
Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts 0 0 0 4 1 3 13 133
Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts 0 0 1 80 1 6 13 269
FORECASTING SEASONAL UK CONSUMPTION COMPONENTS 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 11
FORECASTING WITH DIFFERENCE-STATIONARY AND TREND-STATIONARY MODELS 0 0 0 3 0 22 46 80
First Announcements and Real Economic Activity 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 67
First Announcements and Real Economic Activity 0 0 1 63 1 13 15 360
Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts 0 1 3 314 0 6 17 931
Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts 0 1 1 2 0 4 8 37
Forecasters' Disagreement about How the Economy Operates, and the Role of Long-run Relationships 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 46
Forecasting Seasonal UK Consumption Components 0 0 0 53 0 5 8 822
Forecasting Seasonal UK Consumption Components 0 0 0 4 0 4 10 101
Forecasting Seasonal UK Consumption Components 0 0 0 2 0 4 6 19
Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both? 0 0 0 147 1 5 6 305
Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models 0 0 0 876 3 14 26 1,686
Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts 0 0 0 149 1 5 8 634
Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems 0 0 0 4 0 2 5 230
Forecasting with Difference-Stationary and Trend-Stationary Models 0 0 1 23 1 5 9 1,669
Forecasting with Difference-Stationary and Trend-Stationary Models 0 0 0 44 2 5 11 198
Forecasting: theory and practice 0 1 4 94 0 13 45 151
How Local is the Local Inflation Factor? Evidence from Emerging European Countries 0 0 0 28 2 10 15 73
Improving Real-time Estimates of Output Gaps and Inflation Trends with Multiple-vintage Models 0 0 4 7 1 13 21 96
Individual Forecaster Perceptions of the Persistence of Shocks to GDP 0 0 0 39 0 0 4 80
Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters 0 0 3 128 2 6 13 647
Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters 0 0 1 4 1 6 8 29
Long-Run Restrictions and Survey Forecasts of Output, Consumption and Investment 0 0 0 27 2 4 6 48
MODELLING BUSINESS CYCLE FEATURES USING SWITCHING REGIME MODELS 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 447
MULTI-STEP ESTIMATION FOR FORECASTING 0 1 1 5 0 6 10 69
Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US Output Growth 0 2 7 21 1 12 34 97
Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US output growth and inflation 0 1 5 468 1 8 25 1,172
Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US output growth and inflation 0 0 1 8 1 47 60 165
Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth 0 0 0 90 1 4 6 232
Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models 0 0 0 40 0 3 9 118
Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting 0 0 0 5 1 5 8 221
NON-LINEARITIES IN EXCHANGE RATES 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 14
Non-Linearities in Exchange Rates 0 0 1 7 0 2 5 616
On SETAR non- linearity and forecasting 0 0 0 54 2 14 16 142
On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors 0 0 0 1 0 5 14 773
Performance of Alternative Forecasting Methods for Setar Models 0 0 0 2 1 4 10 199
Pooling of Forecasts 0 0 1 333 0 1 4 818
Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation 0 0 0 2 1 4 11 79
Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation 0 0 0 68 3 7 13 224
Quantile Forecasts of Daily Exchange Rate Returns from Forecasts of Realized Volatility 0 0 0 2 1 3 6 87
Quantile Forecasts of Daily Exchange Rate Returns from Forecasts of Realized Volatility 1 1 2 293 2 8 14 1,068
Real-Time Factor Model Forecasting and the Effects of Instability 0 0 0 48 0 6 10 70
Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions 0 0 0 3 1 11 19 60
Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions 0 0 1 79 0 9 14 161
Robust Approaches to Forecasting 0 0 1 241 0 4 10 523
Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth 0 0 1 61 3 16 20 322
Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth 0 0 0 3 0 5 9 21
SEASONALITY, COINTEGRATION, AND THE FORECASTING OF ENERGY DEMAND 0 0 0 2 0 1 2 16
Seasonality, Cointegration, and the Forecasting of Energy Demand 0 0 0 6 0 0 4 1,162
Sir Clive W.J. Granger's Contributions to Forecasting 0 0 0 7 0 2 5 34
Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth 0 0 0 66 2 7 9 221
Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth 0 0 0 1 1 6 11 29
Surveys of Professionals 0 0 1 12 0 4 10 31
THE ESTIMATION AND TESTING OF COINTEGRATING VECTORS: A SURVEY OF RECENT APPROACHES AND AN APPLICATION TO THE U.K. NON-DURABLE CONSUMPTION FUNCTION 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 74
THE MATHEMATICAL STRUCTURE OF MODELS THAT EXHIBIT COINTEGRATION: A SURVEY OF RECENT APPROACHES 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 70
Testing Structural Hypotheses by Encompassing: Us Wages and Prices is the Mark-Up Pricing Hypothesis Dead? 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 50
The Performance of Alternative Forecasting Methods for SETAR Models 0 0 0 4 2 5 8 32
US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010 0 0 0 49 1 11 13 111
US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010 0 0 1 1 0 5 9 28
Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts? 0 0 0 2 2 8 10 26
Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts? 0 0 1 103 0 2 7 142
Total Working Papers 1 8 56 6,532 72 583 1,124 26,157
4 registered items for which data could not be found


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models 0 0 0 324 0 1 6 976
A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure 0 0 0 115 1 7 9 303
A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP 0 0 0 1 2 8 11 978
An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Rounding on the SPF Probabilities of Decline and Output Growth Histograms 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 52
An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Rounding on the SPF Probabilities of Decline and Output Growth Histograms 0 0 0 2 0 6 23 28
An Historical Perspective on Forecast Errors 0 0 0 8 0 3 5 36
An Historical Perspective on Forecast Errors 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 9
An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters 0 0 2 2 0 5 17 19
An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks 0 0 2 17 0 1 16 106
An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting 0 0 0 60 1 4 9 194
An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach 0 0 1 119 1 4 11 346
Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends? 0 1 2 17 3 11 15 76
Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others? 0 0 0 3 0 6 10 38
Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative? 0 0 1 38 0 6 9 121
Assessing Macro Uncertainty in Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision 0 1 1 8 0 6 10 54
Asymmetric output‐gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark‐up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK 0 0 1 99 0 4 5 408
Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series 0 0 0 92 1 5 8 217
Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models 0 0 0 88 1 6 11 253
Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions 0 0 0 0 1 4 14 650
Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting? 0 0 0 73 0 9 11 218
Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle? 0 0 1 198 1 3 6 622
Can regime-switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output? 0 0 2 195 0 3 9 457
Combining probability forecasts 0 0 0 14 0 0 6 68
Combining probability forecasts 0 0 0 70 1 10 14 283
Comments on "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs" 0 0 0 6 0 1 1 26
Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting' 0 0 0 32 0 2 5 154
Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output 0 0 0 40 0 4 9 247
Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines 0 0 1 24 0 1 4 98
Density forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models under macroeconomic data uncertainty 0 0 0 3 1 6 9 25
Do Macroforecasters Herd? 0 0 0 9 0 5 11 54
Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate their Differences? 0 0 1 5 0 2 4 39
Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data? 0 0 0 2 0 5 5 33
Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve? 0 0 0 1 1 6 16 23
Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases? 0 0 0 19 0 6 9 92
Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts 0 0 0 10 0 4 5 25
Economic Forecasting in a Changing World 0 0 0 90 0 3 14 213
Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research 0 0 0 223 3 18 21 578
Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series: VAR and structural models 0 0 0 520 0 3 6 1,020
Evaluating a Model by Forecast Performance* 0 0 1 89 0 3 8 292
Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates 0 0 0 153 0 3 7 351
Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data 0 1 2 527 0 5 9 1,409
Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches 0 0 0 76 0 1 4 201
Evaluating the Bank of England Density Forecasts of Inflation 0 0 0 106 0 3 5 331
Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts 0 0 2 78 1 5 8 278
Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts 0 0 0 59 1 6 11 234
FORECASTING QUARTERLY AGGREGATE CRIME SERIES 0 0 0 29 0 5 5 125
First announcements and real economic activity 0 1 1 19 0 4 8 150
Forecast Uncertainty- Ex Ante and Ex Post: U.S. Inflation and Output Growth 1 1 5 69 1 9 18 180
Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts 0 0 0 71 0 4 14 337
Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data 0 0 1 8 0 2 4 30
Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends 0 2 3 5 1 5 18 43
Forecasting U.S. Output Growth with Non-Linear Models in the Presence of Data Uncertainty 0 0 0 50 0 4 4 124
Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models 0 2 6 33 0 8 21 127
Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models 0 0 0 318 1 9 13 745
Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports 0 0 0 12 3 12 20 65
Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither? 0 0 0 68 2 9 16 283
Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models 0 0 0 288 3 7 20 780
Forecasting economic processes 0 0 1 92 0 1 7 252
Forecasting in Cointegration Systems 0 0 1 380 0 3 11 760
Forecasting returns and risk in financial markets using linear and nonlinear models 0 0 0 95 0 3 3 219
Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs 0 2 2 7 0 5 9 96
Forecasting with difference-stationary and trend-stationary models 0 0 0 29 1 3 8 1,747
Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation 0 0 3 25 1 7 16 169
Forecasting: theory and practice 2 5 12 61 25 75 167 467
Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting 0 0 0 61 0 3 8 188
How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries 0 0 0 4 1 5 14 26
Improving Real-Time Estimates of Output and Inflation Gaps With Multiple-Vintage Models 0 0 0 8 0 3 7 63
Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited 0 0 0 0 2 8 12 12
Independent directors, information costs and foreign ownership in Chinese companies 1 1 3 11 1 4 11 149
Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP 0 0 0 4 2 5 7 20
Intercept Corrections and Structural Change 0 1 1 264 2 5 14 872
Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment 0 0 0 2 2 6 9 45
Macro-economic Forecasting and Modelling 0 0 0 138 1 4 6 445
Macroeconomic Forecasting With Mixed-Frequency Data 0 1 4 241 2 10 21 516
Measuring the effects of expectations shocks 0 1 2 18 0 3 8 53
Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty 0 0 0 4 5 23 28 104
Modeling Price and Variance Jump Clustering Using the Marked Hawkes Process* 1 1 3 3 6 12 21 24
Modelling methodology and forecast failure 0 0 0 105 0 4 8 387
Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting 0 0 0 3 0 8 15 373
On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting 0 0 0 206 1 5 11 671
On winning forecasting competitions in economics 0 0 0 201 0 5 8 778
Pooling of forecasts 0 0 0 304 2 14 19 883
Predicting Early Data Revisions to U.S. GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets 0 1 2 6 1 6 16 54
Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation 0 0 0 20 1 3 4 87
Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility 0 0 0 78 2 14 18 361
REAL‐TIME FORECASTING OF INFLATION AND OUTPUT GROWTH WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS IN THE PRESENCE OF DATA REVISIONS 0 0 0 0 3 7 10 101
Rationality and the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasting 0 0 0 69 0 3 7 221
Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability 0 0 0 8 0 8 14 63
Robust Evaluation of Fixed-Event Forecast Rationality 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 210
Robust approaches to forecasting 0 0 1 61 0 5 10 155
Rounding behaviour of professional macro-forecasters 0 0 0 2 1 3 4 13
Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand 0 0 0 162 1 7 14 378
Some possible directions for future research 0 0 0 53 1 10 50 412
Survey expectations and adjustments for multiple testing 0 0 2 2 2 6 11 19
TESTING THE EXPECTATIONS THEORY OF THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES IN THRESHOLD MODELS 0 0 0 14 1 6 9 91
The UK Economy: Analysis and Prospects 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 630
The UK Economy: Analysis and Prospects 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 173
The UK Economy: Analysis and Prospects 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 283
The UK Economy: Analysis and Prospects 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 143
The World Economy: Analysis and Prospects 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 163
The World and UK Economy: Analysis and Prospects 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 79
The choice of performance measures, target setting and vesting levels in UK firms' Chief Executive Officer equity‐based compensation 0 0 2 4 1 10 19 22
The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models 0 0 0 114 0 2 8 336
US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010 0 0 1 16 0 3 6 55
Total Journal Articles 5 22 76 7,462 101 618 1,252 28,592


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Forecasting Economic Time Series 0 0 0 0 7 22 81 726
Forecasting Economic Time Series 0 0 0 0 2 7 22 295
Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series 0 0 0 0 1 8 16 504
Total Books 0 0 0 0 10 37 119 1,525


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Chapter 1 Forecasting Annual UK Inflation Using an Econometric Model over 1875–1991 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 7
Combining Predictors and Combining Information in Modelling: Forecasting US Recession Probabilities and Output Growth 0 0 0 2 0 3 5 8
Forecast Combination and Encompassing 0 0 0 0 1 9 13 29
Forecasting with Breaks 1 2 4 312 3 16 41 767
Introduction to the Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting 1 2 12 20 1 4 29 45
Real-time data and forecasting 0 0 8 9 0 4 19 27
Total Chapters 2 4 24 343 6 40 114 883
2 registered items for which data could not be found


Statistics updated 2026-04-09