Access Statistics for Lutz Kilian

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Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks 0 0 0 3 1 3 9 18
A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks 0 0 0 20 6 12 16 42
A Direct test of the Emerging Consensus about Long-Run PPP 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 553
A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices With an Application to Crude Oil 0 0 0 28 1 13 14 132
A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil 0 0 0 56 0 7 17 191
A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil 1 1 2 40 1 6 22 121
A Monetary Explanation Of The Great Stagflation Of The 1970s 0 0 1 236 6 12 17 1,096
A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s 0 0 0 1 4 5 14 614
A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s 0 1 2 868 14 16 31 5,550
A Practitioner's Guide to Lag-Order Selection for Vector Autoregressions 0 2 12 1,552 3 14 40 3,578
A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf 1 1 1 16 5 9 15 47
A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf 0 0 0 2 1 4 8 31
A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf 0 0 0 9 0 4 9 40
A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks 1 1 2 18 3 5 13 30
A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil 0 0 0 95 0 5 10 245
A quantitative model of the oil tanker market in the Arabian Gulf 0 0 0 8 1 3 7 29
Analyzing Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples Using Power Profiles 0 0 0 0 1 19 25 506
Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand 1 1 1 47 4 11 15 186
Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand 0 0 1 48 2 6 10 153
Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand 0 0 0 23 0 6 16 154
Anticipation, tax avoidance, and the price elasticity of gasoline demand 0 0 1 37 0 2 14 167
Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis 0 0 1 63 1 4 11 218
Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis 0 0 0 24 0 7 12 126
Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts? 1 1 5 50 2 8 14 150
Are product spreads useful for forecasting? An empirical evaluation of the Verleger hypothesis 0 0 0 49 1 5 17 171
Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts? 0 0 1 30 1 10 16 104
Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR( Infinite ) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity 0 0 0 155 0 2 6 396
Bagging Time Series Models 0 0 2 229 1 7 18 868
Bagging Time Series Models 0 0 3 226 0 3 9 670
Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form 0 0 0 96 1 6 10 329
Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form 0 0 1 304 1 6 14 1,181
Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form 0 0 1 141 1 9 23 447
Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form 0 0 1 321 0 3 15 1,260
Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots 0 0 0 252 0 2 4 565
Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form 0 0 2 225 0 6 18 721
Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa and Read's 'Narrative Restrictions and Proxies' 0 1 1 30 1 5 10 31
Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa and Read’s ‘Narrative Restrictions and Proxies’ 0 0 0 3 1 1 2 15
Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery 0 0 0 22 0 0 6 41
Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery 0 0 0 13 0 6 15 43
Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 26
Container trade and the U.S. recovery 0 0 0 29 4 10 15 37
Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators for Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study 0 0 0 0 2 10 12 878
Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008? 0 0 5 309 2 9 28 858
Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol? 0 0 0 25 0 5 8 49
Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol? 0 0 0 23 0 1 6 54
Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol? 0 0 0 23 0 1 6 65
Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol? 0 0 0 11 1 3 6 59
Did the renewable fuel standard shift market expectations of the price of ethanol? 0 0 0 13 1 11 18 53
Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data 0 0 0 67 2 7 9 357
Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices 0 0 1 86 6 40 50 356
Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work 0 0 0 32 1 45 116 226
Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work 1 1 1 67 3 9 20 231
Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference? 0 2 5 217 5 14 25 677
Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices? 0 0 1 87 18 36 51 233
Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices? 0 0 1 49 7 12 17 170
Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries 0 0 1 122 1 5 12 251
Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative 0 0 0 941 2 9 17 2,652
Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data 0 0 0 119 2 8 10 658
Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomic news? a test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices 0 0 1 268 1 8 18 776
Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work 0 0 0 100 0 7 15 267
Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? 0 0 0 141 10 26 68 349
Do oil prices help forecast U.S. real GDP? the role of nonlinearities and asymmetries 0 0 1 182 5 12 19 625
Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices? 0 0 0 12 2 6 10 52
Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices? 0 0 0 13 5 27 28 81
Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices? 1 1 1 38 1 6 11 102
Does drawing down the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve help stabilize oil prices? 1 2 2 9 22 56 69 99
Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks? 1 3 6 178 15 23 33 588
Energy Challenges in an Uncertain World 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 36
Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks 0 1 2 40 3 13 19 43
Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions 0 0 0 181 0 10 23 542
Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions 0 0 0 120 3 6 17 468
Exchange rates and Fundamentals: What Do We Learn From Long-Horizon Regressions? 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 221
Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy? 1 1 4 669 5 14 38 1,758
Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling 1 1 1 31 1 21 28 99
Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling 0 0 1 32 1 7 18 77
Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling 0 0 1 35 1 4 10 118
Facts and fiction in oil market modeling 0 1 1 75 2 6 13 50
Forecasting the Price of Oil 0 0 2 260 0 7 29 589
Forecasting the Price of Oil 0 1 2 353 1 22 35 785
Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach 1 2 2 165 4 17 30 376
Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach 0 1 1 75 1 10 17 189
Forecasting the price of oil 0 2 3 291 2 25 49 739
Forecasting the real price of oil in a changing world: A forecast combination approach 0 0 1 138 0 3 9 359
Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us 1 2 7 117 6 14 54 424
Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us 0 0 0 209 1 4 11 309
Forty years of oil price fluctuations: Why the price of oil may still surprise us 0 0 0 116 0 8 17 189
Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models 0 0 0 35 1 7 9 138
Frequentist inference in weakly identified DSGE models 0 0 1 110 1 3 12 242
Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations 1 2 5 8 9 15 30 35
Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations 1 3 7 13 15 28 57 82
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline 0 2 3 6 4 9 16 30
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand 0 0 0 18 13 20 30 52
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand 1 1 1 28 1 10 22 53
Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand 0 0 2 29 4 11 21 50
How Reliable Are VAR Estimates of Responses to Monetary bPolicy Shocks? 0 0 0 2 0 5 6 642
How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation 0 0 2 360 0 7 17 1,135
How the Tight Oil Boom Has Changed Oil and Gasoline Markets 1 1 1 163 3 6 15 396
How the Tight Oil Boom Has Changed Oil and Gasoline Markets 0 0 1 37 0 3 7 88
How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises 0 0 0 0 3 5 14 16
How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises 1 2 3 25 5 12 21 46
Impulse Response Analysis for Structural Dynamic Models with Nonlinear Regressors 0 0 1 44 1 7 14 102
Impulse Response Diagnostics for Priors on Parameters in Structural Vector Autoregressions 0 0 27 27 1 6 33 36
Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models 0 0 3 63 0 3 15 112
Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models 0 0 0 45 2 5 10 167
Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models 0 0 0 20 0 3 3 70
Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models 0 0 1 95 1 6 9 176
Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models 0 0 2 34 2 5 11 76
In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use? 0 0 1 1,144 8 36 45 6,840
In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use? 0 0 1 1,157 2 6 14 3,880
Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models 0 1 3 254 1 8 28 511
Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models 0 0 1 163 1 11 23 400
Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models 0 0 1 47 0 6 22 156
Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump 0 0 1 37 0 3 12 119
Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump 1 1 1 49 3 18 27 205
Inside the crystal ball: New approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump 0 0 1 66 0 3 9 167
Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax? 1 1 1 14 4 5 12 78
Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax? 0 0 0 26 0 1 5 92
Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax? 0 0 0 45 1 6 12 117
Is there a trend break in U.S. GNP? A macroeconomic perspective 0 0 0 176 0 8 9 1,459
Joint Bayesian Inference about Impulse Responses in VAR Models 0 0 0 40 2 4 10 85
Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models 0 0 0 10 0 9 19 42
Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses 0 0 0 80 0 1 7 158
Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses 0 0 0 21 0 6 11 111
Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses 0 0 0 20 0 7 8 65
Jointly Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks 0 0 0 2 1 7 12 18
Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different? 1 1 1 78 3 9 15 168
Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different? 1 1 3 98 5 8 17 247
Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings 0 0 0 2 1 9 14 23
Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings 0 0 0 92 2 6 10 46
Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings 0 0 0 4 3 6 12 25
Macroeconomic responses to uncertainty shocks: The perils of recursive orderings 0 0 2 2 1 9 14 16
Mean Group and Pooled Mixed-Frequency Estimators of Responses of Low-Frequency Variables to High-Frequency Shocks 12 12 12 12 6 6 6 6
Measuring Global Real Economic Activity: Do Recent Critiques Hold Up to Scrutiny? 0 0 0 28 0 1 20 152
Measuring Global Real Economic Activity: Do Recent Critiques Hold Up to Scrutiny? 0 0 1 58 2 11 26 343
Measuring Predictability: Theory And Macroeconomic Applications 0 0 1 127 0 8 16 583
Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications 0 0 0 197 3 8 13 1,188
Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications 0 0 0 1 1 6 13 645
Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications 0 0 0 51 0 2 9 386
Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications 0 0 0 166 4 13 16 760
Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities 0 0 0 57 0 3 8 163
Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities 0 0 1 17 0 3 15 21
Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities 0 0 0 59 1 6 11 138
Monetary policy responses to oil price fluctuations 0 1 2 350 5 14 28 774
Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship 0 0 0 129 1 8 20 360
Nonlinearities in the oil price-output relationship 0 0 0 204 1 7 14 422
Nonparametric Local Projections 0 1 1 34 4 22 36 56
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market 4 5 17 1,039 16 28 87 2,830
Oil Price Shocks and Inflation 4 4 5 37 27 53 84 141
Oil Price Shocks and Inflation 0 0 0 4 5 13 19 25
Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation 0 2 2 339 18 26 36 1,183
Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences 1 2 13 590 12 25 56 1,422
Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates 1 1 4 211 3 8 22 932
Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates 0 0 1 216 1 10 36 1,846
Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates 0 0 1 29 17 28 39 127
Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts 1 1 3 18 1 10 14 49
Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts 0 0 1 30 5 12 41 128
Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts 1 2 3 16 4 10 18 60
Oil Shocks and External Balances 0 0 1 215 1 9 13 675
Oil Shocks and External Balances 0 0 1 227 1 5 12 646
Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s 0 0 0 458 0 7 17 1,065
Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s 0 0 0 932 2 8 19 2,164
Oil price volatility: Origins and effects 3 6 14 237 12 24 59 789
Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates 1 1 7 36 4 10 26 78
Oil prices, exchange rates, and interest rates 0 0 1 54 1 7 12 154
Oil prices, gasoline prices and inflation expectations: A new model and new facts 0 0 1 13 2 11 19 52
On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 709
On the Selection of Forecasting Models 0 0 0 334 0 7 8 1,286
On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series 0 0 0 198 1 4 9 772
On the selection of forecasting models 0 0 0 695 1 2 6 1,679
Pitfalls in Constructing Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Asymptotically Pivotal Statistics 0 0 0 2 3 8 15 2,410
Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks 0 0 0 232 0 5 15 510
Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks 0 0 0 42 2 10 16 203
Pitfalls in estimating asymmetric effects of energy price shocks 0 0 1 210 0 21 34 507
Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 393
Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors 0 0 0 4 0 4 7 859
Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors 0 0 0 124 1 4 11 620
Quantifying the Risk of Deflation 0 1 1 30 0 7 11 114
Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories 0 0 0 166 1 7 20 450
Quantifying the half-life of deviations from PPP: The role of economic priors 0 0 0 278 1 6 13 1,000
Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios 0 0 6 135 5 13 25 309
Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios 0 0 0 104 0 4 7 312
Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil 1 1 9 183 8 24 55 502
Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil 0 0 0 123 0 4 7 262
Recent Developments in Bootstrapping Time Series 0 0 1 21 0 3 10 65
Recent developments in bootstrapping time series 0 0 1 1,466 0 6 22 3,264
Residual-Based Bootstrap Tests for Normality in Autoregressions 0 0 0 0 0 11 14 1,282
Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures 2 2 5 353 4 11 21 1,110
Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate 0 0 0 87 0 1 2 521
Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for Applied Work 0 0 0 151 0 6 11 969
Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for the PPP Debate 0 0 0 0 2 6 14 847
Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: Evidence and implications for applied work 0 0 0 16 0 2 13 186
State-Dependent Local Projections 0 0 3 89 4 14 30 68
Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks: Comment 2 3 4 58 5 18 25 227
Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Information: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand S 0 0 0 37 2 5 9 132
Structural Vector Autoregressions 0 1 20 965 3 15 52 1,827
The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas 0 0 0 91 1 9 11 565
The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings: Lessons to be Learned from the US Residential Market for Natural Gas 0 0 0 97 4 8 10 610
The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan 0 0 1 125 0 3 10 409
The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks 0 0 0 115 0 3 8 484
The Conventional Impulse Response Prior in VAR Models with Sign Restrictions 0 2 15 15 1 9 25 25
The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models 0 0 2 38 1 9 31 101
The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models 1 1 1 91 2 12 109 234
The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models 1 2 5 64 4 11 26 239
The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks 0 0 2 820 1 8 26 2,255
The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries 1 1 4 572 7 24 39 1,722
The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market 3 9 32 1,484 77 136 236 4,493
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23 0 0 0 10 4 7 12 39
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23 1 1 1 28 18 44 57 127
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23 2 2 3 16 4 10 17 49
The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices 0 1 2 4 3 14 22 25
The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices 0 0 1 20 7 16 39 60
The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers 1 1 1 37 1 3 12 143
The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers 0 0 2 89 2 6 13 118
The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers 0 0 0 67 0 3 9 169
The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices 1 1 1 122 13 41 64 470
The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices 0 0 1 77 3 12 19 194
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada 0 0 1 19 2 8 11 70
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada 0 0 0 42 2 6 13 116
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada 0 0 0 29 4 8 15 56
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada 2 2 3 35 5 7 15 66
The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Ener 0 0 0 198 2 6 17 556
The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil 6 7 15 563 14 25 75 1,751
The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions 1 1 1 105 28 39 56 295
The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions 1 2 3 41 7 10 14 134
The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions 0 0 0 42 1 5 11 107
The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far? 0 0 1 376 2 9 18 1,031
The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions 0 0 1 8 1 7 14 52
The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions 0 0 0 64 3 8 13 106
The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions 0 0 0 10 1 8 14 39
The central bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting inflation risks 0 0 1 246 0 2 8 731
The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23 0 0 1 19 7 11 31 63
The impact of the shale oil revolution on U.S. oil and gasoline prices 0 0 2 101 4 13 23 229
The propagation of regional shocks in housing markets: Evidence from oil price shocks in Canada 0 0 1 42 1 8 13 48
The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions 0 0 0 146 7 18 26 361
The role of the prior in estimating VAR models with sign restrictions 0 1 1 21 1 6 17 62
The uniform validity of impulse response inference in autoregressions 0 0 1 28 0 3 10 75
The uniform validity of impulse response inference in autoregressions 0 0 0 51 1 6 8 75
Time Series Analysis 0 0 4 1,108 1 3 13 1,799
Time Series Analysis 0 0 3 145 0 3 13 397
Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014 1 1 10 143 3 7 34 355
Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014 0 0 1 234 0 7 49 529
Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities 0 0 1 64 6 13 22 107
Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities 1 1 1 29 4 8 15 75
Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities 1 1 1 5 3 12 20 60
Understanding the decline in the price of oil since June 2014 0 0 2 317 3 13 25 578
Understanding the estimation of oil demand and oil supply elasticities 1 2 3 16 7 17 30 72
Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models 0 0 0 409 0 9 14 1,464
Unit Root Tests are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models 0 0 0 313 2 4 11 704
Unit Roots, Trend Breaks and Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective 0 0 0 1 1 11 16 772
What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices 0 0 1 170 4 14 18 433
What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices 1 1 1 111 1 8 13 204
What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures? 1 1 2 573 4 15 44 1,894
When Do State-Dependent Local Projections Work? 0 0 1 72 0 5 12 72
When Is the Use of Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate? 0 0 0 1 0 6 8 11
When Is the Use of Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate? 0 0 1 24 0 4 18 79
When do state-dependent local projections work? 0 0 0 5 1 3 7 36
Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models 2 2 4 307 7 17 29 882
Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market 0 0 0 109 5 8 15 391
Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates? 0 0 0 439 0 2 13 1,758
Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates? 0 0 0 615 2 3 15 1,655
Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates? 0 0 1 576 1 7 26 1,357
Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates? 0 0 1 725 3 7 14 1,727
Total Working Papers 84 135 460 41,171 825 2,690 5,500 137,514


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries 2 4 7 426 6 12 26 1,003
A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis 3 8 28 1,324 8 44 128 3,552
A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf 0 0 1 1 1 6 12 15
A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks 1 1 6 19 13 23 49 95
ARE PRODUCT SPREADS USEFUL FOR FORECASTING OIL PRICES? AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE VERLEGER HYPOTHESIS 0 0 0 16 1 8 15 71
Accounting for Lag Order Uncertainty in Autoregressions: the Endogenous Lag Order Bootstrap Algorithm 0 0 0 3 0 6 11 28
Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand 0 0 1 23 3 12 22 133
Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases? 0 0 1 154 1 9 20 418
Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts? 0 0 5 56 0 8 23 166
Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR(∞) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity 0 0 2 65 0 21 40 193
Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots 0 0 0 99 1 5 7 493
Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR (∞) Models 0 0 0 88 1 4 10 387
Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form 0 2 11 534 4 24 58 1,238
Comment 0 0 0 7 0 6 9 72
Comment 0 0 0 8 0 4 6 46
Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read’s “Narrative Restrictions and Proxies” 0 0 0 3 1 6 8 23
Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality 0 0 2 102 3 12 21 302
Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery 0 0 0 4 3 11 18 48
DATA-DRIVEN NONPARAMETRIC SPECTRAL DENSITY ESTIMATORS FOR ECONOMIC TIME SERIES: A MONTE CARLO STUDY 0 0 0 79 3 5 11 300
Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008? 0 0 0 0 7 22 49 414
Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data 0 0 0 79 0 4 12 355
Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data 0 0 0 9 3 6 12 43
Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices 0 0 1 276 2 16 29 795
Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries 0 0 3 139 1 4 20 383
Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work 0 0 1 65 1 8 18 299
Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? 0 1 4 118 4 11 19 422
Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices? 0 3 5 12 22 38 43 82
Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks? 1 4 17 214 7 18 56 564
Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions 0 0 0 0 2 14 31 476
Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions? 0 0 0 514 1 6 15 1,169
Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy? 7 15 40 1,035 21 72 146 2,301
Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 17
Facts and fiction in oil market modeling 1 1 5 19 6 13 22 62
Finite-Sample Properties of Percentile and Percentile-t Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses 0 0 1 295 1 3 13 1,035
Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach 2 3 11 40 5 11 52 177
Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us 1 1 3 114 13 20 43 384
Frequentist inference in weakly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models: Acronyms must be spelled out in titles for indexing purposes 0 0 0 26 0 3 5 73
Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand 0 0 10 20 14 38 94 140
How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses? 3 5 16 293 4 20 50 730
How Useful Is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of U.S. Consumer Price Inflation 0 0 1 111 0 4 10 258
How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models? 0 0 0 118 0 4 7 301
How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices? 3 7 17 607 9 19 64 1,529
How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets 1 2 3 3 4 15 32 34
Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order 0 0 0 0 2 8 15 467
Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors 0 0 5 37 1 10 29 105
Impulse response diagnostics for priors on parameters in structural vector autoregressions 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 7
Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models 0 0 1 36 2 8 15 161
In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use? 0 0 2 445 2 7 25 1,449
Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models 0 1 9 439 5 17 61 1,257
Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump 0 1 2 38 1 7 16 120
Interviews with the experts on "Financial Speculation in the Oil Market and the Determinants of the Oil Price" (PART II) 0 0 2 40 1 8 12 142
Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax? 0 0 1 1 4 6 14 14
Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models 0 0 2 9 2 7 14 39
Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses 0 0 2 40 0 7 12 173
Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different? 0 0 0 41 5 8 21 183
Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings 0 0 5 5 1 10 48 48
Measuring global real economic activity: Do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny? 0 0 1 49 3 12 22 178
Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications 0 0 0 222 1 6 12 846
Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities 0 2 12 117 4 16 64 450
Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations 0 1 7 235 2 10 38 591
NEW INTRODUCTION TO MULTIPLE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, by Helmut Lütkepohl, Springer, 2005 0 0 1 94 0 4 19 257
NONLINEARITIES IN THE OIL PRICE–OUTPUT RELATIONSHIP 1 1 2 139 1 9 20 360
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market 18 31 88 1,891 56 107 326 5,232
Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences 13 16 36 342 32 47 113 901
Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s 1 1 4 741 3 12 38 2,139
Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates 1 3 20 63 14 30 92 231
Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations 1 1 11 48 4 15 39 123
Oil shocks and external balances 1 1 4 293 3 13 25 899
On the selection of forecasting models 0 0 3 270 1 17 34 599
Quantifying the Risk of Deflation 0 0 0 84 0 5 8 283
Quantifying the Risk of Deflation 0 0 1 9 1 4 11 34
Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories 0 2 7 314 8 165 187 1,054
Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP 0 0 0 188 0 5 8 745
Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios 2 6 19 194 3 20 69 478
Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil 0 0 0 129 0 3 8 338
Recent Evolutions of Oil and Commodity Prices 0 0 1 79 1 6 9 162
Recent developments in bootstrapping time series 0 1 5 245 2 20 86 620
Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Autoregressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence 0 0 0 0 1 8 18 1,005
Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate 0 1 1 102 0 6 13 437
Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions 3 5 33 1,226 13 32 126 3,224
Special Issue "Energy Challenges in an Uncertain World" Editorial 0 0 0 0 1 7 11 11
State-dependent local projections 0 2 10 10 6 22 70 76
THE CONTINUITY OF THE LIMIT DISTRIBUTION IN THE PARAMETER OF INTEREST IS NOT ESSENTIAL FOR THE VALIDITY OF THE BOOTSTRAP 0 0 0 12 2 9 14 170
THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET 0 0 0 820 19 35 90 2,396
THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL 5 11 40 291 18 45 163 829
The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas 0 0 0 112 3 10 17 848
The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan 0 0 0 4 1 4 12 29
The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan 0 0 0 67 2 17 26 275
The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks 5 14 25 365 18 47 100 1,625
The Effects of Real and Monetary Shocks in a Business Cycle Model with Some Sticky Prices 0 0 0 148 1 2 4 472
The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers 0 0 1 3 1 3 9 13
The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices 3 6 6 76 9 18 32 257
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada 0 1 2 9 6 28 38 71
The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks 2 3 10 237 6 14 36 715
The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions 1 1 8 66 4 13 34 227
The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far? 0 0 0 1 1 5 19 24
The effects of real and monetary shocks in a business cycle model with some sticky prices 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 483
The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23 4 6 31 82 61 96 215 405
The uniform validity of impulse response inference in autoregressions 0 0 2 35 2 8 21 148
UNIT ROOTS, TREND BREAKS, AND TRANSITORY DYNAMICS: A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE 0 0 0 41 0 9 11 152
Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014 0 0 3 137 7 13 72 477
Understanding the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks 0 0 1 3 0 10 11 34
Understanding the estimation of oil demand and oil supply elasticities 0 0 3 27 17 26 48 118
Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models 0 0 0 0 2 21 30 698
WHAT CENTRAL BANKERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING OIL PRICES 0 0 1 2 0 4 14 31
WHY AGNOSTIC SIGN RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENOUGH: UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF OIL MARKET VAR MODELS 3 12 31 419 13 35 88 1,072
What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures? 0 0 7 685 9 17 61 1,911
When Is the Use of Gaussian-Inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate? 0 0 0 0 3 4 4 4
Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates? 0 0 1 615 2 10 26 1,582
Total Journal Articles 89 187 671 19,590 570 1,817 4,307 61,130
3 registered items for which data could not be found


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis 0 0 0 0 20 56 157 907
Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis 0 0 0 0 7 31 170 1,623
Total Books 0 0 0 0 27 87 327 2,530


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative 0 0 3 337 8 16 53 1,151
Forecasting the Price of Oil 1 14 32 422 15 39 96 1,225
Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation 1 2 7 331 12 26 51 1,029
Structural vector autoregressions 0 2 32 315 6 27 92 655
The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models 1 2 8 37 3 7 30 110
Total Chapters 3 20 82 1,442 44 115 322 4,170


Statistics updated 2026-04-09