| Working Paper |
File Downloads |
Abstract Views |
| Last month |
3 months |
12 months |
Total |
Last month |
3 months |
12 months |
Total |
| A Dynamic Bivariate Poisson Model for Analysing and Forecasting Match Results in the English Premier League |
0 |
1 |
3 |
269 |
4 |
14 |
27 |
639 |
| A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations |
0 |
0 |
1 |
67 |
0 |
5 |
7 |
208 |
| A Dynamic Yield Curve Model with Stochastic Volatility and Non-Gaussian Interactions: An Empirical Study of Non-standard Monetary Policy in the Euro Area |
0 |
0 |
0 |
77 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
190 |
| A Forty Year Assessment of Forecasting the Boat Race |
0 |
0 |
0 |
78 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
83 |
| A General Framework for Observation Driven Time-Varying Parameter Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
118 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
305 |
| A General Framework for Observation Driven Time-Varying Parameter Models |
0 |
2 |
2 |
174 |
4 |
10 |
12 |
421 |
| A Multilevel Factor Model for Economic Activity with Observation Driven Dynamic Factors |
1 |
2 |
4 |
30 |
2 |
5 |
16 |
42 |
| A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk |
1 |
1 |
1 |
123 |
1 |
4 |
14 |
478 |
| A Note on “Continuous Invertibility and Stable QML Estimation of the EGARCH(1,1) Model” |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
| A Novel Test for the Presence of Local Explosive Dynamics |
1 |
1 |
2 |
17 |
2 |
7 |
10 |
17 |
| A Time-Varying Parameter Model for Local Explosions |
0 |
1 |
1 |
70 |
2 |
8 |
10 |
124 |
| A robust Beveridge-Nelson decomposition using a score-driven approach with an application |
1 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
12 |
| A statistical model of the global carbon budget |
0 |
0 |
1 |
38 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
85 |
| Accelerating GARCH and Score-Driven Models: Optimality, Estimation and Forecasting |
0 |
0 |
2 |
42 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
74 |
| An Hourly Periodic State Space Model for Modelling French National Electricity Load |
0 |
0 |
0 |
230 |
2 |
11 |
14 |
583 |
| An efficient and simple simulation smoother for state space time series analysis |
0 |
0 |
0 |
179 |
3 |
12 |
20 |
1,254 |
| Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Time-Varying Parameters |
0 |
0 |
2 |
307 |
1 |
8 |
18 |
753 |
| Bayesian Dynamic Modeling of High-Frequency Integer Price Changes |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
56 |
| Bayesian Risk Forecasting for Long Horizons |
0 |
0 |
0 |
37 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
93 |
| Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: a joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
57 |
| Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk |
1 |
1 |
1 |
894 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
1,928 |
| Common and Idiosyncratic Conditional Volatility Factors: Theory and Empirical Evidence |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
28 |
| Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition |
0 |
0 |
0 |
188 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
440 |
| Computing Observation Weights for Signal Extraction and Filtering |
0 |
0 |
0 |
260 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
629 |
| Constructing seasonally adjusted data with time-varying confidence intervals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
106 |
| Convergence in European GDP Series |
0 |
0 |
0 |
490 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
2,270 |
| Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
285 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
871 |
| Credit cycles and macro fundamentals |
0 |
0 |
2 |
182 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
605 |
| Does trade integration imply growth in Latin America? Evidence from a dynamic spatial spillover model |
1 |
1 |
3 |
21 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
32 |
| Dynamic Factor Analysis in The Presence of Missing Data |
0 |
0 |
0 |
214 |
3 |
10 |
14 |
442 |
| Dynamic Factor Models with Clustered Loadings: Forecasting Education Flows using Unemployment Data |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
64 |
| Dynamic Factor Models with Smooth Loadings for Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates |
0 |
0 |
0 |
66 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
230 |
| Dynamic factor models with macro, frailty and industry effects for US default counts: the credit crisis of 2008 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
57 |
2 |
5 |
10 |
172 |
| Dynamic term structure models with score-driven time-varying parameters: estimation and forecasting |
0 |
3 |
3 |
77 |
2 |
8 |
12 |
117 |
| Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
101 |
2 |
3 |
11 |
123 |
| Estimating Systematic Continuous-time Trends in Recidivism using a Non-Gaussian Panel Data Model |
0 |
0 |
0 |
71 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
516 |
| Estimation of final standings in football competitions with premature ending: the case of COVID-19 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
71 |
| Exact Score for Time Series Models in State Space Form (Now published in Biometrika (1992), 79, 4, pp.283-6.) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
53 |
| Extracting Business Cycles using Semi-parametric Time-varying Spectra with Applications to US Macroeconomic Time Series |
0 |
0 |
0 |
102 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
317 |
| Extracting a Robust U.S. Business Cycle Using a Time-Varying Multivariate Model-Based Bandpass Filter |
0 |
0 |
0 |
79 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
179 |
| Fast Efficient Importance Sampling by State Space Methods |
0 |
0 |
0 |
79 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
190 |
| Fast Estimation of Parameters in State Space Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
855 |
| Fast Filtering and Smoothing for Multivariate State Space Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
| Fast Filtering and Smoothing for Multivariate State Space Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
59 |
| Feasible Invertibility Conditions and Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Observation-Driven Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
46 |
| Feasible Invertibility Conditions for Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Observation-Driven Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
33 |
| Feasible Invertibility Conditions for Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Observation-Driven Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
| Finding the European crime drop using a panel data model with stochastic trends |
1 |
1 |
1 |
13 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
15 |
| Forecasting Cross-Sections of Frailty-Correlated Default |
0 |
0 |
0 |
73 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
282 |
| Forecasting Daily Time Series using Periodic Unobserved Components Time Series Models |
0 |
0 |
1 |
353 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
1,146 |
| Forecasting Daily Variability of the S&P 100 Stock Index using Historical, Realised and Implied Volatility Measurements |
0 |
0 |
1 |
956 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
2,501 |
| Forecasting Football Match Results in National League Competitions Using Score-Driven Time Series Models |
0 |
0 |
2 |
158 |
2 |
5 |
16 |
209 |
| Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints |
0 |
0 |
0 |
80 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
204 |
| Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis |
0 |
0 |
1 |
182 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
410 |
| Forecasting daily variability of the S\&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
1,120 |
| Forecasting economic time series using score-driven dynamic models with mixed-data sampling |
0 |
0 |
0 |
54 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
79 |
| Forecasting in a changing world: from the great recession to the COVID-19 pandemic |
0 |
0 |
2 |
93 |
1 |
3 |
10 |
138 |
| Forecasting the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates using a Macroeconomic Smooth Dynamic Factor Model |
0 |
0 |
0 |
91 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
189 |
| Forecasting the Variability of Stock Index Returns with Stochastic Volatility Models and Implied Volatility |
0 |
0 |
0 |
810 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
2,118 |
| Generalized Autoregressive Method of Moments |
0 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
145 |
| Generalized Dynamic Panel Data Models with Random Effects for Cross-Section and Time |
0 |
0 |
0 |
72 |
2 |
12 |
16 |
215 |
| Global Credit Risk: World, Country and Industry Factors |
0 |
0 |
0 |
26 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
148 |
| Global credit risk: world country and industry factors |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
112 |
| In-Sample Bounds for Time-Varying Parameters of Observation Driven Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
57 |
| In-Sample Confidence Bands and Out-of-Sample Forecast Bands for Time-Varying Parameters in Observation Driven Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
61 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
67 |
| Information Theoretic Optimality of Observation Driven Time Series Models |
1 |
2 |
2 |
49 |
3 |
8 |
10 |
103 |
| Interaction between Supply and Demand Shocks in Production and Employment |
0 |
0 |
0 |
387 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3,795 |
| Interaction between supply and demand in production and employment |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
169 |
| Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates |
0 |
0 |
0 |
711 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2,356 |
| Intraday Stochastic Volatility in Discrete Price Changes: the Dynamic Skellam Model |
0 |
0 |
0 |
53 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
94 |
| Intraday Stock Price Dependence using Dynamic Discrete Copula Distributions |
0 |
0 |
0 |
35 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
99 |
| Joint Bayesian Analysis of Parameters and States in Nonlinear, Non-Gaussian State Space Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
72 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
66 |
| Joint Modelling and Estimation of Global and Local Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels |
0 |
0 |
1 |
28 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
46 |
| Likelihood Functions for State Space Models with Diffuse Initial Conditions |
0 |
0 |
0 |
166 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
491 |
| Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models |
0 |
0 |
1 |
294 |
3 |
10 |
12 |
578 |
| Long Memory Dynamics for Multivariate Dependence under Heavy Tails |
0 |
0 |
1 |
48 |
0 |
7 |
9 |
169 |
| Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
134 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
349 |
| Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks |
0 |
0 |
1 |
48 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
214 |
| Low Frequency and Weighted Likelihood Solutions for Mixed Frequency Dynamic Factor Models |
0 |
0 |
1 |
52 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
100 |
| Macro, Industry and Frailty Effects in Defaults: The 2008 Credit Crisis in Perspective |
0 |
0 |
0 |
57 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
168 |
| Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Score-Driven Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
59 |
2 |
6 |
9 |
195 |
| Maximum Likelihood Estimation for correctly Specified Generalized Autoregressive Score Models: Feedback Effects, Contraction Conditions and Asymptotic Properties |
0 |
0 |
1 |
52 |
2 |
6 |
8 |
124 |
| Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1,038 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
2,510 |
| Maximum likelihood estimation for dynamic factor models with missing data |
0 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
1 |
8 |
10 |
91 |
| Maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
10 |
| Measuring Asymmetric Stochastic Cycle Components in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series |
0 |
0 |
0 |
222 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
766 |
| Measuring Financial Cycles in a Model-Based Analysis: Empirical Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area |
0 |
0 |
1 |
93 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
138 |
| Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles |
0 |
0 |
0 |
365 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
899 |
| Messy Time Series: A Unified Approach - (Now published in 'Advances in Econometrics', 13 (1998)pp.103-143.) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
116 |
| Missing Observations in Observation-Driven Time Series Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
46 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
83 |
| Model-based Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Decomposition for Europe and the U.S |
0 |
0 |
1 |
95 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
238 |
| Model-based Measurement of Actual Volatility in High-Frequency Data |
0 |
0 |
0 |
233 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
765 |
| Model-based Measurement of Latent Risk in Time Series with Applications |
0 |
0 |
0 |
154 |
2 |
6 |
7 |
685 |
| Modeling Dynamic Volatilities and Correlations under Skewness and Fat Tails |
0 |
0 |
0 |
55 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
157 |
| Modeling Trigonometric Seasonal Components for Monthly Economic Time Series |
0 |
0 |
1 |
78 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
247 |
| Modeling, Forecasting, and Nowcasting U.S. CO2 Emissions Using Many Macroeconomic Predictors |
0 |
0 |
1 |
90 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
137 |
| Modelling bid-ask spreads in competitive dealership markets |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
26 |
| Modelling bid-ask spreads in competitive dealership markets |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
8 |
| Models with Time-varying Mean and Variance: A Robust Analysis of U.S. Industrial Production |
0 |
0 |
0 |
68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
186 |
| Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Generalized Long-Memory Time Series Models |
0 |
0 |
1 |
56 |
1 |
5 |
9 |
175 |
| Multivariate Structural Time Series Models - (Now published in 'System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models', CHeij, H Schumacher, B Hanzon and C Praagman (eds.) John Wiley & Sons, Chichester (1997), pp.269-298.) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
10 |
129 |
| Nowcasting and Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area using Principal Components |
0 |
0 |
0 |
108 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
122 |
| Numerically Accelerated Importance Sampling for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State Space Models |
0 |
1 |
1 |
77 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
156 |
| Observation Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk |
0 |
0 |
0 |
57 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
161 |
| Observation driven mixed-measurement dynamic factor models with an application to credit risk |
0 |
0 |
1 |
49 |
0 |
2 |
8 |
167 |
| Observation-Driven filters for Time- Series with Stochastic Trends and Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamics |
1 |
2 |
2 |
32 |
4 |
8 |
15 |
57 |
| On Importance Sampling for State Space Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
181 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
528 |
| Optimal Formulations for Nonlinear Autoregressive Processes |
0 |
0 |
0 |
53 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
108 |
| Partially Censored Posterior for Robust and Efficient Risk Evaluation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
37 |
| Partially Censored Posterior for robust and efficient risk evaluation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
21 |
| Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices |
0 |
0 |
0 |
353 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
956 |
| Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA models for daily electricity spot prices |
0 |
0 |
0 |
177 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
581 |
| Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices |
0 |
0 |
0 |
479 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
1,230 |
| Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment |
0 |
0 |
0 |
113 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
330 |
| Predicting Time-Varying Parameters with Parameter-Driven and Observation-Driven Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
93 |
0 |
5 |
6 |
239 |
| Pro-Cyclicality, Empirical Credit Cycles, and Capital Buffer Formation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
307 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
816 |
| Realized Wishart-GARCH: A Score-driven Multi-Asset Volatility Model |
0 |
0 |
0 |
83 |
0 |
9 |
14 |
110 |
| Regime switches in the volatility and correlation of financial institutions |
0 |
0 |
0 |
102 |
4 |
8 |
11 |
201 |
| Round-the-Clock Price Discovery for Cross-Listed Stocks: US-Dutch Evidence |
0 |
0 |
0 |
245 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
1,053 |
| Seasonality with Trend and Cycle Interactions in Unobserved Components Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
221 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
652 |
| Signal Extraction and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
70 |
| Signal Extraction and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
| Smooth Dynamic Factor Analysis with an Application to the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates |
0 |
0 |
0 |
98 |
2 |
5 |
6 |
225 |
| Spillover Dynamics for Systemic Risk Measurement using Spatial Financial Time Series Models |
0 |
1 |
1 |
69 |
2 |
8 |
8 |
125 |
| Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models |
0 |
0 |
2 |
51 |
4 |
7 |
10 |
159 |
| Spline Smoothing over Difficult Regions |
0 |
0 |
1 |
66 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
199 |
| Spot Variance Path Estimation and its Application to High Frequency Jump Testing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
56 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
180 |
| Stationarity and Ergodicity of Univariate Generalized Autoregressive Score Processes |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
0 |
6 |
9 |
140 |
| Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
23 |
2 |
6 |
7 |
117 |
| Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
7 |
9 |
20 |
| Statistical Early Warning Models with Applications |
1 |
1 |
2 |
27 |
1 |
2 |
14 |
33 |
| Stock Index Volatility Forecasting with High Frequency Data |
0 |
0 |
1 |
859 |
0 |
3 |
10 |
2,221 |
| Structural Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates: The Impact of Sentence Reform in Virginia |
0 |
0 |
0 |
51 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
211 |
| Systemic Risk Diagnostics |
0 |
0 |
0 |
93 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
216 |
| Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals |
0 |
0 |
1 |
149 |
2 |
8 |
10 |
476 |
| Temporal, Spatial, Economic and Crime Factors in Illicit Drug Usage across European Cities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
59 |
| Testing for Parameter Instability in Competing Modeling Frameworks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
21 |
1 |
7 |
9 |
85 |
| Testing the Assumptions Behind the Use of Importance Sampling |
0 |
0 |
0 |
105 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
497 |
| The Analysis of Stochastic Volatility in the Presence of Daily Realised Measures |
0 |
0 |
0 |
76 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
125 |
| The Dynamic Factor Network Model with an Application to Global Credit-Risk |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
1 |
6 |
7 |
64 |
| The Dynamic Skellam Model with Applications |
0 |
0 |
1 |
36 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
145 |
| The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model |
0 |
0 |
0 |
86 |
7 |
10 |
10 |
246 |
| The Information in Systemic Risk Rankings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
4 |
9 |
15 |
106 |
| The Modelling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations - (Now published in 'Journal of Business and Economic Statistics', 15 (1997), pp.354-368.) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
11 |
46 |
| The Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions |
0 |
0 |
2 |
239 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
686 |
| The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model |
0 |
0 |
0 |
493 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
1,107 |
| The analysis and forecasting of ATP tennis matches using a high-dimensional dynamic model |
1 |
1 |
2 |
87 |
1 |
5 |
11 |
119 |
| The dynamic factor network model with an application to global credit risk |
0 |
0 |
0 |
43 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
132 |
| The information in systemic risk rankings |
0 |
0 |
1 |
41 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
156 |
| Time Series Analysis of Non-Gaussian Observations Based on State Space Models from Both Classical and Bayesian Perspectives |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
69 |
| Time Series Analysis of Non-Gaussian Observations Based on State Space Models from Both Classical and Bayesian Perspectives |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
| Time Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues |
0 |
0 |
1 |
331 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
889 |
| Time Series Models with a Common Stochastic Variance for Analysing Economic Time Series |
0 |
0 |
0 |
482 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1,443 |
| Time Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models |
0 |
1 |
2 |
131 |
2 |
9 |
16 |
463 |
| Time-Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues |
0 |
1 |
1 |
291 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
1,072 |
| Time-varying state correlations in state space models and their estimation via indirect inference |
0 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
34 |
| Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area |
0 |
0 |
0 |
45 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
220 |
| Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area |
0 |
0 |
0 |
272 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
955 |
| Unobserved Components with Stochastic Volatility in U.S. Inflation: Estimation and Signal Extraction |
0 |
0 |
0 |
85 |
0 |
8 |
8 |
150 |
| Vector Autoregressions with Dynamic Factor Coefficients and Conditionally Heteroskedastic Errors |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
48 |
| Total Working Papers |
11 |
27 |
77 |
20,678 |
274 |
683 |
1,103 |
62,371 |
| Journal Article |
File Downloads |
Abstract Views |
| Last month |
3 months |
12 months |
Total |
Last month |
3 months |
12 months |
Total |
| A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
57 |
7 |
12 |
13 |
212 |
| A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations |
0 |
0 |
2 |
30 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
116 |
| A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk |
0 |
0 |
0 |
52 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
208 |
| A dynamic bivariate Poisson model for analysing and forecasting match results in the English Premier League |
0 |
1 |
2 |
65 |
1 |
10 |
13 |
265 |
| A non-Gaussian generalization of the Airline model for robust seasonal adjustment |
0 |
0 |
0 |
71 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
314 |
| A regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| A robust Beveridge–Nelson decomposition using a score-driven approach with an application |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
11 |
16 |
| A time-varying parameter model for local explosions |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
28 |
| Accelerating score-driven time series models |
0 |
0 |
3 |
23 |
2 |
6 |
10 |
98 |
| Amendments and Corrections |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
14 |
| An hourly periodic state space model for modelling French national electricity load |
0 |
0 |
1 |
51 |
1 |
5 |
9 |
209 |
| Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model With Time-Varying Parameters |
1 |
1 |
4 |
59 |
5 |
10 |
19 |
199 |
| Bayesian Dynamic Modeling of High-Frequency Integer Price Changes |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
28 |
| Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: A joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
14 |
| Business and default cycles for credit risk |
0 |
0 |
1 |
454 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
1,243 |
| Business and default cycles for credit risk |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
15 |
| Common and idiosyncratic conditional volatility: Theory and empirical evidence from electricity prices |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
| Computing observation weights for signal extraction and filtering |
1 |
1 |
9 |
198 |
2 |
8 |
35 |
487 |
| Constructing Seasonally Adjusted Data with Time‐varying Confidence Intervals |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
18 |
| Convergence in European GDP series: a multivariate common converging trend-cycle decomposition |
0 |
0 |
0 |
176 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
628 |
| Credit cycles and macro fundamentals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
201 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
595 |
| Detecting shocks: Outliers and breaks in time series |
0 |
0 |
1 |
137 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
358 |
| Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
784 |
| Discussion of ‘MCMC‐based inference’ by R. Paap |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
67 |
| Dynamic Factor Models With Macro, Frailty, and Industry Effects for U.S. Default Counts: The Credit Crisis of 2008 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
136 |
| Dynamic discrete copula models for high‐frequency stock price changes |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
28 |
| Dynamic factor models with clustered loadings: Forecasting education flows using unemployment data |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
12 |
| Dynamic factors in periodic time-varying regressions with an application to hourly electricity load modelling |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
61 |
| Economic Trends and Cycles in Crime: A Study for England and Wales |
0 |
0 |
1 |
76 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
270 |
| Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
118 |
| Empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation |
1 |
1 |
1 |
143 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
400 |
| Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models: A Comparison of Two Importance Samplers |
0 |
0 |
1 |
177 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
379 |
| Estimating systematic continuous‐time trends in recidivism using a non‐Gaussian panel data model |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
106 |
| Estimation of final standings in football competitions with a premature ending: the case of COVID-19 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
16 |
| Estimation of stochastic volatility models via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood |
0 |
1 |
1 |
484 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
1,091 |
| Exact maximum likelihood estimation for non-stationary periodic time series models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
3 |
6 |
6 |
194 |
| Exponentionally weighted methods for forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles: Comments |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
44 |
| Extracting a robust US business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter |
1 |
1 |
1 |
138 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
372 |
| Fast Filtering and Smoothing for Multivariate State Space Models |
1 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
1 |
8 |
10 |
37 |
| Filtering and smoothing of state vector for diffuse state‐space models |
0 |
2 |
7 |
396 |
2 |
5 |
20 |
736 |
| Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models |
1 |
1 |
2 |
26 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
97 |
| Forecasting daily time series using periodic unobserved components time series models |
0 |
0 |
1 |
53 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
149 |
| Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements |
0 |
1 |
3 |
398 |
3 |
5 |
12 |
1,106 |
| Forecasting economic time series using score-driven dynamic models with mixed-data sampling |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
41 |
| Forecasting football match results in national league competitions using score-driven time series models |
0 |
0 |
6 |
60 |
2 |
9 |
26 |
238 |
| Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints |
0 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
3 |
6 |
11 |
109 |
| Forecasting macroeconomic variables using collapsed dynamic factor analysis |
0 |
0 |
3 |
72 |
4 |
8 |
15 |
208 |
| Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model |
0 |
0 |
2 |
22 |
2 |
2 |
7 |
106 |
| GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE SCORE MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS |
0 |
3 |
9 |
112 |
1 |
12 |
25 |
360 |
| Generalized dynamic panel data models with random effects for cross-section and time |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
229 |
| Global Credit Risk: World, Country and Industry Factors |
0 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
98 |
| In-sample confidence bands and out-of-sample forecast bands for time-varying parameters in observation-driven models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
103 |
| Information-theoretic optimality of observation-driven time series models for continuous responses |
1 |
1 |
2 |
24 |
5 |
9 |
10 |
74 |
| Interaction between structural and cyclical shocks in production and employment |
0 |
0 |
0 |
21 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
72 |
| Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia |
0 |
0 |
2 |
25 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
128 |
| Intraday Stochastic Volatility in Discrete Price Changes: The Dynamic Skellam Model |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
9 |
37 |
| Joint Bayesian Analysis of Parameters and States in Nonlinear non‐Gaussian State Space Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
22 |
| Joint Decomposition of Business and Financial Cycles: Evidence from Eight Advanced Economies |
0 |
1 |
2 |
11 |
2 |
4 |
9 |
30 |
| Kalman filtering and smoothing for model‐based signal extraction that depend on time‐varying spectra |
0 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
119 |
| Likelihood functions for state space models with diffuse initial conditions |
0 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
125 |
| Likelihood‐based dynamic factor analysis for measurement and forecasting |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
0 |
4 |
7 |
80 |
| Long memory dynamics for multivariate dependence under heavy tails |
0 |
0 |
1 |
24 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
110 |
| Long memory with stochastic variance model: A recursive analysis for US inflation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
1 |
7 |
8 |
63 |
| Long-term forecasting of El Niño events via dynamic factor simulations |
0 |
1 |
3 |
17 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
45 |
| Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Non-Stationary Location Models with Mixture of Normal Distributions |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
22 |
| Maximum likelihood estimation for dynamic factor models with missing data |
0 |
1 |
3 |
118 |
2 |
10 |
18 |
322 |
| Maximum likelihood estimation for score-driven models |
0 |
0 |
2 |
11 |
5 |
9 |
17 |
55 |
| Measuring Synchronization and Convergence of Business Cycles for the Euro area, UK and US* |
0 |
1 |
5 |
149 |
3 |
8 |
14 |
340 |
| Measuring financial cycles in a model-based analysis: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area |
0 |
0 |
3 |
71 |
1 |
1 |
14 |
234 |
| Missing observations in observation-driven time series models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
6 |
29 |
| Modeling Around-the-Clock Price Discovery for Cross-Listed Stocks Using State Space Methods |
0 |
0 |
0 |
82 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
222 |
| Modeling frailty-correlated defaults using many macroeconomic covariates |
0 |
0 |
0 |
66 |
0 |
5 |
6 |
258 |
| Modeling, forecasting, and nowcasting U.S. CO2 emissions using many macroeconomic predictors |
1 |
1 |
1 |
20 |
4 |
10 |
14 |
86 |
| Modelling trigonometric seasonal components for monthly economic time series |
0 |
1 |
1 |
54 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
266 |
| Model‐based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
122 |
| Modified efficient importance sampling for partially non‐Gaussian state space models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
11 |
| Monte Carlo Estimation for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State Space Models |
0 |
0 |
2 |
117 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
240 |
| Monte Carlo Likelihood Estimation for Three Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
79 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
214 |
| Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Generalized Long-Memory Time Series Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
70 |
| Multivariate non‐linear time series modelling of exposure and risk in road safety research |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
1 |
7 |
7 |
72 |
| Nonlinear autoregressive models with optimality properties |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
19 |
| Nowcasting and forecasting global financial sector stress and credit market dislocation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
98 |
| Numerically Accelerated Importance Sampling for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State-Space Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
66 |
| Observation-Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk |
1 |
1 |
2 |
45 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
202 |
| Observation-driven filtering of time-varying parameters using moment conditions |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
17 |
| On the evidence of a trend in the CO2 airborne fraction |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
| Partially censored posterior for robust and efficient risk evaluation |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
22 |
| Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices |
0 |
0 |
1 |
118 |
2 |
6 |
10 |
306 |
| Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment* |
0 |
0 |
0 |
21 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
118 |
| Predicting Time-Varying Parameters with Parameter-Driven and Observation-Driven Models |
0 |
0 |
2 |
42 |
2 |
7 |
17 |
176 |
| Realized Wishart-GARCH: A Score-driven Multi-Asset Volatility Model |
0 |
0 |
1 |
20 |
1 |
5 |
11 |
96 |
| SMOOTH DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATION TO THE US TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
65 |
| Seasonality with trend and cycle interactions in unobserved components models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
152 |
| Signal extraction and the formulation of unobserved components models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
1,467 |
| Special Issue on Nonlinear Modelling and Financial Econometrics |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
90 |
| Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models |
0 |
0 |
3 |
46 |
4 |
7 |
20 |
183 |
| Spot Variance Path Estimation and Its Application to High-Frequency Jump Testing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
151 |
| State Space Models With a Common Stochastic Variance |
0 |
0 |
0 |
115 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
198 |
| Statistical Software for State Space Methods |
0 |
0 |
0 |
26 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
166 |
| Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
1,291 |
| Testing for Parameter Instability across Different Modeling Frameworks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
32 |
| Testing the assumptions behind importance sampling |
0 |
0 |
0 |
67 |
0 |
3 |
6 |
277 |
| The Analysis of Stochastic Volatility in the Presence of Daily Realized Measures |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
134 |
| The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
5 |
913 |
| The analysis and forecasting of tennis matches by using a high dimensional dynamic model |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
30 |
| The dynamic factor network model with an application to international trade |
0 |
0 |
1 |
22 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
100 |
| The information in systemic risk rankings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
0 |
3 |
5 |
103 |
| The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions |
0 |
1 |
1 |
154 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
471 |
| The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from international stock markets |
0 |
1 |
4 |
472 |
1 |
5 |
15 |
1,437 |
| The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from international stock markets |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
35 |
| Time Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues |
0 |
0 |
0 |
33 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
112 |
| Time series analysis of non‐Gaussian observations based on state space models from both classical and Bayesian perspectives |
0 |
0 |
1 |
175 |
3 |
7 |
10 |
395 |
| Time-Varying Parameters in Econometrics: The editor’s foreword |
0 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
16 |
| Time-Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models |
0 |
3 |
4 |
17 |
3 |
11 |
19 |
69 |
| Tracking the Business Cycle of the Euro Area: A Multivariate Model-Based Bandpass Filter |
0 |
0 |
1 |
180 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
372 |
| Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
4 |
8 |
12 |
44 |
| Weighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency data |
0 |
1 |
1 |
34 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
154 |
| Total Journal Articles |
10 |
34 |
130 |
6,873 |
193 |
493 |
922 |
25,821 |
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