Access Statistics for Michael McCracken

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Advances in forecast evaluation 0 2 3 163 0 2 4 318
Advances in forecast evaluation 0 0 0 167 0 0 0 295
An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts 0 0 0 85 0 3 8 100
Are Initial Jobless Claims a Useful Gauge of Labor Market Conditions? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Asymptotic Inference for Performance Fees and the Predictability of Asset Returns 0 0 0 63 0 0 1 96
Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities 0 0 0 64 0 1 1 182
Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities 0 0 0 79 0 0 0 263
Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities 0 2 2 90 0 2 6 219
Binary Conditional Forecasts 0 0 0 55 0 0 3 70
Bootstrapping out-of-sample predictability tests with real-time data 0 1 1 30 1 2 6 45
COVID-19: Forecasting with Slow and Fast Data 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Combining forecasts from nested models 0 0 0 48 0 1 1 131
Combining forecasts from nested models 0 0 1 147 1 1 2 606
Combining forecasts from nested models 0 0 0 107 1 1 2 427
Comment on \"Taylor rule exchange rate forecasting during the financial crisis\" 0 0 0 41 0 0 0 74
Consistent testing for structural change at the ends of the sample 0 0 0 125 0 1 9 76
Core Inflation Revisited: Forecast Accuracy across Horizons 0 3 20 20 1 5 34 34
Diverging Tests of Equal Predictive Ability 0 0 1 59 0 0 1 50
Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions 0 0 1 121 0 0 2 136
Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions 0 0 2 100 0 0 3 163
Evaluating long-horizon forecasts 0 0 1 259 0 0 4 567
Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions 0 0 0 151 0 1 6 260
FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research 2 5 20 249 7 21 108 846
FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research 1 1 3 30 3 5 22 126
FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research 0 0 2 60 0 2 13 93
Forecast disagreement among FOMC members 0 1 1 76 0 1 6 187
Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks 0 0 0 243 0 0 0 632
Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities 0 0 0 173 0 0 1 549
Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities 0 0 0 172 1 1 1 304
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk 0 4 7 18 4 10 30 48
How COVID-19 May Be Affecting Inflation 0 0 1 2 0 1 2 4
Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts 0 0 1 637 0 1 8 2,195
Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts 0 0 0 123 0 2 3 292
In-sample tests of predictive ability: a new approach 0 0 0 36 0 1 1 77
In-sample tests of predictive ability: a new approach 0 1 1 125 0 2 10 196
Inference about predictive ability 0 0 0 237 0 0 1 501
Inflation Expectations and the Fed’s New Monetary Framework 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Market-Based Measures of Inflation Risks 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 7
Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors 0 1 1 104 0 1 1 83
Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors 0 0 0 30 0 0 1 42
Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors 0 0 1 88 1 1 2 47
Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors 0 0 1 122 0 0 1 93
Multi-step ahead forecasting of vector time series 0 0 1 69 0 0 3 121
NEW MSE TESTS FOR EVALUATING FORECASTING PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICS AND BOOTSTRAP 0 0 0 66 0 1 2 219
Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy 0 0 0 132 0 0 0 269
Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy 0 0 0 79 0 0 2 246
On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth 0 0 3 34 0 0 14 71
Price Volatility and Headline Inflation 0 2 3 3 0 4 6 6
Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR 0 0 1 118 0 0 4 251
Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED 0 0 0 46 0 0 0 93
Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons 0 0 0 85 0 0 0 162
Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage 1 1 3 50 4 5 10 52
Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability 0 0 3 413 0 0 5 1,801
Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability 0 0 1 285 0 0 1 1,192
Testing for unconditional predictive ability 0 0 0 118 0 1 1 221
Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability: Existence, Size, and Power 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 29
Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability: Some Simulation Evidence 0 0 0 38 0 0 1 50
Tests of Equal Accuracy for Nested Models with Estimated Factors 0 0 4 155 1 2 9 198
Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models 0 0 0 1,286 0 0 1 3,947
Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models 1 2 4 339 1 2 6 910
Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models 0 0 0 496 0 0 1 1,423
Tests of equal forecast accuracy for overlapping models 0 0 1 70 1 1 3 160
Tests of equal forecast accuracy for overlapping models 0 0 0 81 0 0 2 207
Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data 0 0 1 179 0 1 3 432
Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data 0 0 0 76 1 2 2 164
The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 260
The St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index, Version 2.0 1 3 7 7 2 11 21 21
The predictive content of the output gap for inflation: resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence 0 0 0 165 0 1 1 500
Using Core Inflation to Predict Headline Inflation 0 3 9 32 1 6 25 48
What Are Financial Market Stress Indexes Showing? 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 4
What Do Components of Key Inflation Measures Say about Future Inflation? 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3
Will High Inflation Persist? 0 0 1 7 0 0 5 13
Total Working Papers 6 32 117 8,977 31 106 438 23,509

Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth 1 3 6 13 3 5 15 66
An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts 0 0 6 15 1 1 9 54
Asymptotic Inference for Performance Fees and the Predictability of Asset Returns 0 0 1 3 0 0 5 30
Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality 1 4 29 714 2 9 50 1,335
Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 15
Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities 0 0 0 130 1 1 2 379
Binary Conditional Forecasts 0 0 1 6 0 0 3 13
Combining Forecasts from Nested Models* 0 0 0 72 1 1 1 368
Comment 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 38
Disagreement at the FOMC: the dissenting votes are just part of the story 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 56
Diverging Tests of Equal Predictive Ability 0 0 0 8 0 0 4 37
Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts 1 2 7 215 1 2 11 458
Evaluating the Predictability of Exchange Rates Using Long-Horizon Regressions: Mind Your p's and q's! 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 226
FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research 6 22 94 357 24 63 296 1,148
FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research 1 1 17 50 10 31 121 378
Factor-based prediction of industry-wide bank stress 0 0 1 17 0 1 3 93
Following the Fed with a news tracker 0 0 0 3 1 1 1 36
Housing's role in a recovery 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 44
How accurate are forecasts in a recession? 0 0 0 49 0 0 2 122
IMPROVING FORECAST ACCURACY BY COMBINING RECURSIVE AND ROLLING FORECASTS 0 0 0 109 0 0 4 381
In-sample tests of predictive ability: A new approach 0 0 0 45 0 2 2 113
Initial claims and employment growth: are we at the threshold? 0 1 2 11 0 1 3 50
Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors 0 1 7 43 0 1 14 163
Multistep ahead forecasting of vector time series 0 0 1 17 1 1 2 50
Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy 0 0 0 62 2 2 3 193
On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth 0 0 1 4 4 6 14 29
Pairwise tests of equal forecast accuracy (in Russian) 0 0 0 28 1 1 2 94
Parameter estimation and tests of equal forecast accuracy between non-nested models 0 0 6 84 0 0 14 210
Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR 0 0 3 13 0 3 15 66
Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED 0 0 0 19 0 1 2 108
Reality Checks and Comparisons of Nested Predictive Models 0 1 1 14 2 3 3 51
Reality Checks and Comparisons of Nested Predictive Models 0 0 0 3 1 3 3 10
Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability 0 0 0 3 2 2 13 643
Robust out-of-sample inference 0 0 1 183 0 0 4 384
Should food be excluded from core CPI? 0 0 0 8 1 1 2 37
TESTS OF EQUAL FORECAST ACCURACY FOR OVERLAPPING MODELS 0 0 0 23 0 1 2 95
Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data 0 0 0 114 0 0 0 261
Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional Forecasting 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 32
Tests of equal accuracy for nested models with estimated factors 0 1 7 68 1 2 11 142
Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models 0 1 22 821 8 11 52 1,988
The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence 0 0 3 168 1 4 11 454
The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks 0 0 1 140 0 0 5 289
Tracking the U.S. Economy with Nowcasts 0 0 0 10 0 0 1 42
Uncertainty about when the Fed will raise interest rates 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 53
Using FOMC forecasts to forecast the economy 0 0 0 33 0 0 0 78
Using stock market liquidity to forecast recessions 0 0 1 23 0 0 2 71
Total Journal Articles 10 37 218 3,732 68 161 711 10,983

Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Advances in Forecast Evaluation 2 3 9 147 6 11 25 409
Chapter 3 Forecasting with Small Macroeconomic VARs in the Presence of Instabilities 0 0 1 2 1 1 3 4
Comment on "Taylor Rule Exchange Rate Forecasting during the Financial Crisis" 0 0 0 6 0 0 2 37
Consistent Testing for Structural Change at the Ends of the Sample 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Evaluating the Accuracy of Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions☆The views expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve System, or any of its staff 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Total Chapters 3 4 11 156 8 13 31 453

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Statistics updated 2025-03-03