Access Statistics for Michael T. Owyang

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Flexible Finite-Horizon Identification of Technology Shocks 0 0 1 86 1 3 7 366
A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law 0 0 0 59 0 8 16 163
A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law 0 0 1 25 1 11 15 82
A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law 0 0 1 25 3 6 16 98
A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation 0 0 0 45 4 21 22 244
A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications 0 0 1 119 0 6 17 322
A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications 0 0 2 21 1 7 17 35
A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock 0 1 1 167 0 5 15 476
A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation 0 0 0 46 0 2 7 184
Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis 0 0 0 14 0 2 11 41
An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles 0 0 0 77 1 9 14 247
Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data 0 0 0 184 1 4 13 425
Are Government Spending Multipliers State Dependent? Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Historical Data 0 0 0 116 1 6 9 246
Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data 0 0 2 170 2 8 23 428
Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts 0 0 0 48 0 4 8 124
Binary Conditional Forecasts 0 0 0 55 0 4 12 82
Business Cycles Across Space and Time 0 0 1 50 0 1 13 90
Business cycle phases in U.S. states 0 0 3 354 1 2 15 2,766
COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth? 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 4
Clustered Housing Cycles 0 0 0 34 2 9 9 66
Clustered Housing Cycles 0 0 0 14 0 2 7 85
Clustered housing cycles 0 0 0 60 0 2 8 146
Contagious Switching 0 0 0 48 2 3 12 86
Could More Progressive Taxes Increase Income Inequality? 0 0 1 5 1 4 10 17
Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions 0 0 0 30 4 15 19 113
Debt and Stabilization Policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR 0 0 0 54 1 6 14 114
Did affordable housing legislation contribute to the subprime securities boom? 0 0 0 60 2 12 17 184
Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods 0 0 0 19 0 3 12 113
Discordant City Employment Cycles 0 0 0 14 0 7 10 107
Discordant city employment cycles 0 0 0 39 1 4 7 107
Discordant city employment cycles 0 0 0 26 1 10 12 103
Do Government Shutdowns Affect Subsequent Data Revisions? 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence 0 0 0 127 3 9 14 314
Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption? 0 0 0 110 1 4 10 371
Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence 0 0 0 41 0 2 12 220
Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure 0 0 0 123 1 2 6 482
Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure 0 0 0 82 3 6 10 416
FOMC Actions and Recent Movements in Five-Year Inflation Expectations 0 0 0 4 0 2 2 6
FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications 0 0 1 52 5 11 27 178
Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy 0 0 0 57 1 4 14 186
Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data 0 0 2 89 2 17 34 109
Forecasting national recessions using state level data 0 0 0 48 0 4 13 124
Forecasting national recessions using state-level data 0 0 0 20 1 9 18 90
How Has Empirical Monetary Policy Analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis? 0 0 0 96 0 1 10 160
Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns 0 0 0 17 1 3 8 73
Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach 0 1 1 30 0 2 5 150
Identifying technology shocks in the frequency domain 0 0 2 92 1 3 11 154
Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models 0 0 0 1 2 6 12 19
Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models 0 0 0 12 1 5 11 22
Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements 0 0 0 16 2 4 14 53
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters 0 0 0 36 0 6 7 88
Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities 0 0 1 121 1 6 11 245
Is the U.S. in a Recession? What Key Economic Indicators Say 0 0 0 6 0 2 10 19
Job Quits, New-Business Applications and the Postpandemic Pace of U.S. Business Formation 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 5
Making Sense of Recession Probabilities 1 1 13 13 2 4 21 21
Measuring The Effect of Shocks on Inequality: It's All About the Data 0 0 0 4 1 5 17 27
Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR 0 0 0 64 0 3 7 310
Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle 0 0 0 452 0 5 10 1,040
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing 0 0 0 13 0 4 5 72
Multivariate forecast evaluation and rationality testing 0 0 0 120 1 5 30 318
Nonlinear Hedonics and the Search for School District Quality 0 1 1 293 5 22 25 1,891
Nonlinear hedonics and the search for school district quality 0 0 0 82 1 4 10 357
Nonlinearities, Smoothing and Countercyclical Monetary Policy 0 0 0 64 1 9 14 109
Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation 0 0 0 8 0 3 9 81
Pension or 401(k)? Retirement Plan Trends in the U.S. Workplace 0 0 10 11 1 5 17 18
Race and Subprime Loan Pricing 0 0 0 13 1 2 6 77
Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR 0 0 0 118 0 5 10 261
Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage 0 0 2 52 1 6 16 68
Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement 0 0 0 12 0 3 3 86
Regime switching and monetary policy measurement 0 0 0 128 0 4 12 344
Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy 0 0 0 130 0 3 6 284
Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage 0 0 0 22 1 3 7 302
Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage 0 0 0 83 1 12 15 451
Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement 0 0 1 137 2 10 21 317
States and the business cycle 0 0 1 136 0 4 10 435
Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy 0 0 1 245 0 5 10 739
Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications 0 0 0 260 0 1 7 846
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms and Trickle-Up Economics 0 0 8 8 1 7 22 22
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms, and Trickle-Up Economics 0 0 1 60 0 5 19 244
The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District 0 0 0 41 1 5 10 326
The Challenges in Dating the End of Recessions 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 10
The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves 0 0 5 32 0 2 12 29
The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks 0 1 2 82 1 3 16 211
The Propagation of Regional Recessions 0 0 0 79 0 3 8 193
The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach 0 0 1 85 0 2 11 292
The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions 0 0 0 21 0 1 8 147
The local effects of monetary policy 0 0 0 87 1 6 13 222
The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks 1 2 4 59 2 4 13 151
The propagation of regional recessions 0 0 0 147 0 8 17 266
The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks 0 0 0 110 0 2 8 364
What Are the Long-run Trade-offs of Rent-Control Policies? 0 0 0 13 0 5 9 26
What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology SHocks in G7-Countries 0 0 0 76 2 4 10 492
What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries? 0 0 0 7 1 11 15 110
What explains the varying monetary response to technology shocks in G-7 countries? 0 0 0 54 0 2 5 255
Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries 0 0 0 55 1 4 7 158
Where is an oil shock? 0 0 0 46 0 4 7 177
Where is an oil shock? 0 0 0 41 0 6 10 156
Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis 0 0 0 76 1 4 10 295
Total Working Papers 2 7 71 6,883 84 521 1,184 23,749
1 registered items for which data could not be found

Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes 0 0 1 8 1 5 8 38
A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks 0 0 9 136 3 6 27 438
A Measure of Price Pressures 0 1 3 29 0 7 19 162
A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998 6 10 23 2,019 33 63 154 6,046
A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks 1 1 1 71 2 5 9 204
A state-level analysis of Okun's law 0 1 3 26 3 13 19 186
A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation 0 0 0 25 0 2 6 174
A time-varying threshold STAR model with applications 0 1 2 3 0 3 10 13
A winning combination? economic theory meets sports 0 0 1 60 1 1 4 181
Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis 0 0 0 2 1 5 9 16
An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles 0 1 3 12 1 6 16 63
Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data 0 0 2 180 0 6 18 559
Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts 0 1 1 10 1 7 12 47
Barreling down the road to recession? 0 0 0 7 0 2 4 89
Binary Conditional Forecasts 0 0 2 8 0 3 11 24
Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States 0 0 3 364 2 6 18 4,133
Business Cycles across Space and Time 0 0 2 4 0 3 11 30
Business cycle measures 0 0 0 222 0 3 3 355
Can a summer hike cause a surprise fall for mortgage rates? 0 0 0 4 0 1 3 109
Changing trends in the labor force: a survey 0 0 0 14 4 7 9 202
China's Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection, or Just Smoke and Mirrors? 0 0 4 93 0 10 35 291
Clustered housing cycles 0 0 0 14 2 6 10 72
Comparing Measures of Potential Output 0 0 1 27 0 3 9 117
Contagious switching 0 0 2 11 1 3 11 49
Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions 0 0 1 7 0 2 12 63
DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE 0 0 0 64 4 7 9 210
Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP 0 0 0 3 1 6 8 40
Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR 0 0 0 20 0 0 5 121
Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom? 0 0 0 4 0 7 12 72
Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods 0 0 0 10 1 8 17 124
Discordant city employment cycles 0 0 0 13 0 4 9 80
Discussion of “An approach for identifying and predicting economic recessions in real‐time using time‐frequency functional models”by Holan, Yang, Matteson, and Wikle 0 0 0 4 0 3 4 13
Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes 1 8 25 147 8 21 54 378
Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption? 0 0 0 94 0 2 6 397
Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles? 0 0 0 12 2 5 9 58
Economic Forecasting: Comparing the Fed with the Private Sector 0 0 1 11 0 6 9 38
Editor's introduction 0 0 0 10 1 2 4 42
Employment Revision Asymmetries 0 0 2 6 1 4 8 35
Extra credit: the rise of short-term liabilities 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 71
FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications 0 0 2 5 2 8 15 34
Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy 0 0 3 22 1 4 9 123
Financial aid and college choice 0 0 0 18 0 0 1 64
For love or money: why married men make more 0 0 1 94 0 2 6 517
Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data 0 0 1 12 2 6 13 86
Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data 0 0 2 9 0 5 10 26
Forecasting with mixed frequencies 2 7 45 270 4 25 78 643
Hard 'core' inflation 0 0 0 11 0 2 3 95
How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement? 0 0 3 6 0 2 10 31
How has empirical monetary policy analysis in the U.S. changed after the financial crisis? 0 0 0 9 3 6 15 146
Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements 0 0 0 2 0 3 5 12
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters 0 1 2 6 0 5 9 39
Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure 0 0 1 24 1 5 9 90
Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities 0 0 1 135 4 32 42 481
Keep your résumé current 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 132
Look who's still working now 0 0 0 10 0 3 4 68
Look who's working now 0 0 0 11 1 1 1 58
Low unemployment: old dogs or new tricks? 0 0 0 20 0 4 9 151
Marriage, motherhood and money: how do women's life decisions influence their wages? 0 1 3 90 1 5 12 360
Measuring Potential Output 0 0 0 3 0 1 3 18
Measuring Trends in Income Inequality 0 0 0 14 0 1 2 79
Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach 0 0 1 10 0 6 13 45
Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach 0 0 0 49 0 2 6 256
Measuring the effect of school choice on economic outcomes 0 0 0 19 1 3 5 84
Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Model: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle 0 0 0 83 0 8 14 195
Monetary policy: the whole country gets the same treatment, but results vary 0 0 0 34 0 1 2 146
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing 0 1 2 68 2 6 16 230
Nonlinear effects of school quality on house prices 0 1 3 44 0 3 12 196
Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy 0 0 0 12 0 3 6 99
Not your father's oil shock 0 0 0 10 0 2 4 39
Not your father's pension plan: the rise of 401K and other defined contribution plans 0 0 2 418 1 1 10 1,404
Okun's law in recession and recovery 0 0 0 29 0 1 5 100
Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different? 2 3 12 111 7 21 52 449
On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts 0 0 0 10 2 12 18 40
Output and unemployment: how do they relate today? 0 0 4 67 2 7 13 183
Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation 0 0 1 18 0 4 10 178
Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation 0 0 0 68 0 5 7 257
Putting off retirement: the rise of the 401(k) 0 0 0 7 0 0 2 66
Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR 0 1 5 18 3 14 31 98
Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage 0 0 3 6 2 6 14 19
Regime switching and monetary policy measurement 0 0 2 151 0 3 11 401
Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics 1 1 1 6 5 13 15 39
Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy 0 0 2 75 1 4 11 213
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District 0 0 0 10 0 3 6 82
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District 0 0 0 4 1 5 10 83
Regional vs. Global: How Are Countries' Business Cycles Moving Together These Days? 0 0 4 84 1 6 14 203
Rockets and Feathers: Why Don't Gasoline Prices Always Move in Sync with Oil Prices? 0 0 2 33 23 32 38 151
Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage 0 0 0 33 3 12 16 718
So much for that merit raise: the link between wages and appearance 0 1 1 114 2 5 7 445
Social changes lead married women into labor force 0 0 2 98 0 3 9 303
Splitsville: the economics of unilateral divorce 0 0 0 20 0 1 2 80
States and the business cycle 0 1 2 88 0 5 13 328
Subject to revision 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 56
Subjective probabilities: psychological theories and economic applications 0 0 0 46 0 2 6 382
Survey says 0 0 0 6 0 4 7 65
Symmetric inflation risk 0 0 0 8 0 0 1 63
Taking Stock: Income Inequality and the Stock Market 0 0 0 11 0 3 5 86
The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District 0 0 0 18 1 5 9 167
The Local Effects of Monetary Policy 0 2 3 96 3 15 23 334
The Propagation of Regional Recessions 0 1 2 139 0 7 22 477
The baby-boom boom 0 0 0 10 1 1 4 76
The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach 0 0 0 67 0 8 17 252
The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions 0 0 0 13 1 4 9 104
The long and the short of the federal funds target cuts 0 0 0 6 0 1 2 56
The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks 0 0 17 54 3 9 47 162
The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks 0 0 1 91 0 5 9 349
Un estudio de caso de una crisis monetaria: el incumplimiento ruso de 1998 0 0 0 6 0 2 5 45
Unconventional oil production: stuck in a rock and a hard place 0 0 0 13 0 4 7 71
Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices 0 0 0 29 3 7 7 90
WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE? A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF JOBLESS RECOVERIES 0 0 0 38 0 4 10 125
WHERE IS AN OIL SHOCK? 0 0 0 12 1 6 9 64
What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries? 0 0 0 21 1 6 6 142
What are the chances? 0 0 1 12 0 1 6 74
What's in a name? reconciling conflicting evidence on ethnic names 0 0 2 56 0 2 5 239
When do recessions begin and end? 0 0 0 11 0 4 5 57
Where there’s a smoking ban, there’s still fire 0 0 0 7 0 4 6 66
Who benefits from increased government spending? A state-level analysis 0 0 1 41 0 4 10 217
Working hard or hardly working? the evolution of leisure in the United States 0 0 0 47 0 1 4 220
Worth your weight? re-examining the link between obesity and wages 0 0 1 13 0 0 3 86
Your current job probably won't be your last 0 0 0 11 0 0 1 62
Total Journal Articles 13 45 233 7,239 162 679 1,494 29,910

Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement 1 4 5 62 1 9 16 186
Total Chapters 1 4 5 62 1 9 16 186

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Statistics updated 2026-04-09