Access Statistics for Michael T. Owyang

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Flexible Finite-Horizon Identification of Technology Shocks 0 0 1 86 0 3 8 368
A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law 0 0 0 25 0 5 18 86
A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law 0 0 0 59 1 6 21 169
A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law 0 0 1 25 2 12 24 107
A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation 0 0 0 45 0 6 24 246
A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications 0 0 0 119 0 2 17 324
A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications 0 0 1 21 0 1 16 35
A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock 0 0 1 167 0 0 14 476
A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation 0 0 0 46 1 7 13 191
Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis 0 0 0 14 0 1 11 42
An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles 0 0 0 77 0 1 14 247
Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data 0 0 0 184 0 2 13 426
Are Government Spending Multipliers State Dependent? Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Historical Data 0 0 0 116 1 6 14 251
Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data 0 0 1 170 0 4 24 430
Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts 0 0 0 48 0 1 8 125
Binary Conditional Forecasts 0 0 0 55 0 1 11 83
Business Cycles Across Space and Time 0 0 1 50 0 4 16 94
Business cycle phases in U.S. states 0 0 3 354 0 5 18 2,770
COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth? 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 5
Clustered Housing Cycles 0 0 0 14 0 5 12 90
Clustered Housing Cycles 0 0 0 34 2 4 11 68
Clustered housing cycles 0 0 0 60 0 0 8 146
Contagious Switching 0 0 0 48 0 4 14 88
Could More Progressive Taxes Increase Income Inequality? 0 0 1 5 0 3 11 19
Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions 0 0 0 30 0 6 21 115
Debt and Stabilization Policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR 0 0 0 54 1 2 15 115
Did affordable housing legislation contribute to the subprime securities boom? 0 0 0 60 0 3 18 185
Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods 0 0 0 19 1 5 17 118
Discordant City Employment Cycles 0 0 0 14 0 5 15 112
Discordant city employment cycles 0 0 0 39 0 2 8 108
Discordant city employment cycles 0 0 0 26 0 3 13 105
Do Government Shutdowns Affect Subsequent Data Revisions? 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2
Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence 0 0 0 127 2 11 22 322
Does Uncertainty Really Predict Recessions? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption? 0 0 0 110 2 5 14 375
Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence 0 0 0 41 0 2 14 222
Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure 0 0 0 123 0 6 10 487
Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure 0 0 0 82 1 5 12 418
FOMC Actions and Recent Movements in Five-Year Inflation Expectations 0 0 0 4 0 2 4 8
FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications 0 0 0 52 2 17 38 190
Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy 0 0 0 57 1 5 18 190
Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data 0 0 1 89 0 7 37 114
Forecasting national recessions using state level data 0 0 0 48 0 1 13 125
Forecasting national recessions using state-level data 0 0 0 20 0 5 20 94
How Has Empirical Monetary Policy Analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis? 0 0 0 96 0 2 12 162
Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns 0 0 0 17 0 3 10 75
Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach 0 0 1 30 1 4 9 154
Identifying technology shocks in the frequency domain 0 0 1 92 0 2 11 155
Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models 0 0 0 12 0 4 14 25
Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models 0 0 0 1 1 6 16 23
Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements 0 1 1 17 0 4 16 55
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters 0 0 0 36 1 4 11 92
Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities 0 0 1 121 1 5 15 249
Is the U.S. in a Recession? What Key Economic Indicators Say 0 0 0 6 0 2 12 21
Job Quits, New-Business Applications and the Postpandemic Pace of U.S. Business Formation 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 6
Making Sense of Recession Probabilities 1 2 14 14 1 3 22 22
Measuring The Effect of Shocks on Inequality: It's All About the Data 0 0 0 4 1 4 19 30
Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR 0 0 0 64 1 3 10 313
Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle 0 0 0 452 1 1 11 1,041
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing 0 0 0 13 0 1 6 73
Multivariate forecast evaluation and rationality testing 0 0 0 120 0 4 32 321
Nonlinear Hedonics and the Search for School District Quality 1 1 2 294 2 10 29 1,896
Nonlinear hedonics and the search for school district quality 0 0 0 82 1 4 13 360
Nonlinearities, Smoothing and Countercyclical Monetary Policy 0 0 0 64 2 4 16 112
Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation 0 0 0 8 0 2 9 83
Pension or 401(k)? Retirement Plan Trends in the U.S. Workplace 0 0 1 11 1 6 16 23
Race and Subprime Loan Pricing 0 0 0 13 0 3 8 79
Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR 0 1 1 119 1 5 15 266
Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage 0 0 1 52 0 3 16 70
Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement 0 0 0 12 0 2 5 88
Regime switching and monetary policy measurement 0 0 0 128 1 1 13 345
Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy 0 0 0 130 1 3 8 287
Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage 0 0 0 22 0 3 9 304
Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage 0 0 0 83 1 4 18 454
Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement 0 0 1 137 0 5 24 320
States and the business cycle 0 0 1 136 0 4 14 439
Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy 0 0 1 245 0 1 10 740
Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications 0 0 0 260 1 2 8 848
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms and Trickle-Up Economics 0 0 8 8 1 5 25 26
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms, and Trickle-Up Economics 0 0 0 60 0 4 15 248
The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District 0 0 0 41 0 2 11 327
The Challenges in Dating the End of Recessions 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 11
The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves 0 0 1 32 0 1 8 30
The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks 0 1 2 83 0 3 16 213
The Propagation of Regional Recessions 0 0 0 79 2 6 14 199
The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach 0 0 1 85 0 1 12 293
The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions 0 0 0 21 0 2 10 149
The local effects of monetary policy 0 0 0 87 1 3 15 224
The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks 0 1 4 59 0 7 17 156
The propagation of regional recessions 0 0 0 147 1 3 20 269
The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks 0 0 0 110 0 3 11 367
What Are the Long-run Trade-offs of Rent-Control Policies? 0 0 0 13 2 2 11 28
What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology SHocks in G7-Countries 0 0 0 76 0 2 10 492
What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries? 0 0 0 7 0 2 14 111
What explains the varying monetary response to technology shocks in G-7 countries? 0 0 0 54 0 2 6 257
Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries 0 0 0 55 0 3 9 160
Where is an oil shock? 0 0 0 46 3 3 10 180
Where is an oil shock? 0 0 0 41 0 2 12 158
Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis 1 1 1 77 1 5 14 299
Total Working Papers 3 8 54 6,889 48 354 1,390 24,019
1 registered items for which data could not be found


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes 0 0 1 8 1 3 10 40
A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks 0 0 8 136 2 9 31 444
A Measure of Price Pressures 0 0 2 29 3 5 23 167
A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998 0 6 17 2,019 2 50 152 6,063
A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks 0 1 1 71 1 5 12 207
A state-level analysis of Okun's law 0 0 1 26 1 10 24 193
A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation 0 0 0 25 0 0 6 174
A time-varying threshold STAR model with applications 0 0 2 3 3 3 13 16
A winning combination? economic theory meets sports 0 0 1 60 0 4 7 184
Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis 0 0 0 2 1 3 10 18
An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles 0 0 3 12 0 2 17 64
Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data 1 1 2 181 1 5 21 564
Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts 0 0 1 10 0 1 11 47
Barreling down the road to recession? 0 0 0 7 0 6 10 95
Binary Conditional Forecasts 0 0 1 8 0 2 12 26
Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States 0 0 3 364 0 3 19 4,134
Business Cycles across Space and Time 1 1 3 5 2 3 13 33
Business cycle measures 0 0 0 222 1 2 5 357
Can a summer hike cause a surprise fall for mortgage rates? 0 0 0 4 1 1 4 110
Changing trends in the labor force: a survey 0 0 0 14 0 5 10 203
China's Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection, or Just Smoke and Mirrors? 0 0 4 93 2 6 35 297
Clustered housing cycles 0 0 0 14 1 7 15 77
Comparing Measures of Potential Output 0 0 0 27 1 2 9 119
Contagious switching 0 0 2 11 0 3 12 51
Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions 0 0 0 7 0 0 11 63
DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE 0 0 0 64 0 8 13 214
Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP 0 0 0 3 1 5 11 44
Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR 0 0 0 20 0 2 6 123
Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom? 0 0 0 4 0 3 15 75
Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods 1 1 1 11 3 5 20 128
Discordant city employment cycles 0 0 0 13 0 4 13 84
Discussion of “An approach for identifying and predicting economic recessions in real‐time using time‐frequency functional models”by Holan, Yang, Matteson, and Wikle 0 0 0 4 0 1 5 14
Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes 3 6 23 152 4 17 52 387
Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption? 0 0 0 94 1 3 9 400
Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles? 0 0 0 12 0 5 12 61
Economic Forecasting: Comparing the Fed with the Private Sector 0 0 1 11 0 0 9 38
Editor's introduction 0 0 0 10 0 3 6 44
Employment Revision Asymmetries 0 0 2 6 0 1 8 35
Extra credit: the rise of short-term liabilities 0 0 0 10 0 2 2 73
FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications 0 0 1 5 3 10 22 42
Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy 0 0 1 22 2 7 13 129
Financial aid and college choice 0 0 0 18 0 2 2 66
For love or money: why married men make more 0 0 1 94 2 3 8 520
Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data 0 0 1 12 0 4 14 88
Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data 0 0 1 9 0 3 12 29
Forecasting with mixed frequencies 1 8 41 276 6 16 78 655
Hard 'core' inflation 0 0 0 11 0 2 5 97
How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement? 0 0 3 6 0 1 11 32
How has empirical monetary policy analysis in the U.S. changed after the financial crisis? 0 0 0 9 1 9 21 152
Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements 0 0 0 2 0 1 5 13
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters 0 0 1 6 1 2 10 41
Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure 0 0 0 24 0 1 8 90
Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities 0 0 1 135 1 8 46 485
Keep your résumé current 0 0 0 22 1 5 5 137
Look who's still working now 0 0 0 10 0 0 4 68
Look who's working now 0 0 0 11 1 5 5 62
Low unemployment: old dogs or new tricks? 0 0 0 20 0 1 9 152
Marriage, motherhood and money: how do women's life decisions influence their wages? 0 0 1 90 1 3 11 362
Measuring Potential Output 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 18
Measuring Trends in Income Inequality 0 0 0 14 0 1 3 80
Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach 0 0 0 49 0 2 8 258
Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach 0 0 1 10 0 3 16 48
Measuring the effect of school choice on economic outcomes 0 0 0 19 0 2 6 85
Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Model: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle 0 0 0 83 0 0 14 195
Monetary policy: the whole country gets the same treatment, but results vary 0 0 0 34 0 1 3 147
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing 1 1 2 69 1 5 16 233
Nonlinear effects of school quality on house prices 0 0 2 44 0 3 11 199
Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy 0 0 0 12 1 2 8 101
Not your father's oil shock 0 0 0 10 1 1 5 40
Not your father's pension plan: the rise of 401K and other defined contribution plans 0 0 2 418 0 3 12 1,406
Okun's law in recession and recovery 0 0 0 29 0 3 8 103
Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different? 0 2 10 111 1 17 56 459
On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts 0 0 0 10 0 3 19 41
Output and unemployment: how do they relate today? 0 0 4 67 1 4 14 185
Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation 0 0 1 18 0 6 16 184
Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation 0 0 0 68 2 9 16 266
Putting off retirement: the rise of the 401(k) 0 0 0 7 0 1 3 67
Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR 0 1 4 19 0 11 36 106
Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage 0 0 3 6 1 7 19 24
Regime switching and monetary policy measurement 0 0 0 151 0 2 10 403
Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics 0 1 1 6 1 11 21 45
Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy 0 0 1 75 1 3 10 215
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District 0 0 0 10 0 0 6 82
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District 0 0 0 4 2 5 14 87
Regional vs. Global: How Are Countries' Business Cycles Moving Together These Days? 0 0 3 84 0 2 13 204
Rockets and Feathers: Why Don't Gasoline Prices Always Move in Sync with Oil Prices? 0 0 1 33 17 49 63 177
Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage 0 0 0 33 0 3 15 718
So much for that merit raise: the link between wages and appearance 0 0 1 114 0 5 9 448
Social changes lead married women into labor force 1 1 3 99 3 3 12 306
Splitsville: the economics of unilateral divorce 0 0 0 20 0 1 3 81
States and the business cycle 0 0 2 88 3 5 18 333
Subject to revision 0 0 0 3 1 1 1 57
Subjective probabilities: psychological theories and economic applications 1 1 1 47 1 2 8 384
Survey says 0 0 0 6 1 2 9 67
Symmetric inflation risk 0 0 0 8 0 0 1 63
Taking Stock: Income Inequality and the Stock Market 0 0 0 11 0 1 6 87
The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District 0 0 0 18 1 5 11 171
The Local Effects of Monetary Policy 0 0 3 96 3 8 26 339
The Propagation of Regional Recessions 0 0 2 139 1 5 27 482
The baby-boom boom 0 0 0 10 0 5 8 80
The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach 0 0 0 67 0 4 21 256
The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions 0 0 0 13 0 2 10 105
The long and the short of the federal funds target cuts 0 0 0 6 0 3 5 59
The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks 0 0 10 54 3 12 40 171
The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks 0 0 1 91 0 6 15 355
Un estudio de caso de una crisis monetaria: el incumplimiento ruso de 1998 0 0 0 6 0 2 7 47
Unconventional oil production: stuck in a rock and a hard place 0 0 0 13 0 0 6 71
Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices 0 0 0 29 12 22 26 109
WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE? A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF JOBLESS RECOVERIES 0 0 0 38 2 4 14 129
WHERE IS AN OIL SHOCK? 0 0 0 12 0 4 12 67
What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries? 0 0 0 21 0 2 7 143
What are the chances? 0 0 0 12 0 1 6 75
What's in a name? reconciling conflicting evidence on ethnic names 0 1 3 57 0 3 8 242
When do recessions begin and end? 0 0 0 11 0 2 7 59
Where there’s a smoking ban, there’s still fire 0 0 0 7 0 1 7 67
Who benefits from increased government spending? A state-level analysis 0 0 1 41 0 5 13 222
Working hard or hardly working? the evolution of leisure in the United States 0 0 0 47 1 3 7 223
Worth your weight? re-examining the link between obesity and wages 0 0 1 13 0 3 6 89
Your current job probably won't be your last 0 0 0 11 1 1 2 63
Total Journal Articles 10 32 194 7,258 113 564 1,764 30,312


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement 0 1 4 62 1 9 22 194
Total Chapters 0 1 4 62 1 9 22 194


Statistics updated 2026-06-04