Access Statistics for Michael T. Owyang

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Flexible Finite-Horizon Identification of Technology Shocks 0 0 1 86 0 1 9 369
A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law 0 0 0 25 0 1 19 87
A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law 0 0 0 59 0 1 22 170
A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law 0 0 0 25 2 2 24 109
A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation 0 0 0 45 0 0 24 246
A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications 0 0 0 119 1 2 19 326
A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications 0 0 1 21 0 0 16 35
A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock 0 0 1 167 0 2 14 478
A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation 0 0 0 46 2 2 14 193
Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis 0 0 0 14 0 1 10 43
An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles 0 0 0 77 0 1 14 248
Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data 0 0 0 184 2 3 15 429
Are Government Spending Multipliers State Dependent? Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Historical Data 1 1 1 117 3 3 16 254
Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data 0 0 1 170 0 1 23 431
Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts 0 0 0 48 0 1 9 126
Binary Conditional Forecasts 0 0 0 55 0 0 10 83
Business Cycles Across Space and Time 1 1 1 51 1 4 18 98
Business cycle phases in U.S. states 0 0 0 354 2 2 13 2,772
COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth? 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5
Clustered Housing Cycles 0 0 0 34 3 3 14 71
Clustered Housing Cycles 0 0 0 14 0 0 12 90
Clustered housing cycles 0 0 0 60 1 1 9 147
Contagious Switching 0 0 0 48 0 0 13 88
Could More Progressive Taxes Increase Income Inequality? 0 0 0 5 1 1 8 20
Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions 0 0 0 30 0 0 21 115
Debt and Stabilization Policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR 0 0 0 54 1 2 16 117
Did affordable housing legislation contribute to the subprime securities boom? 0 0 0 60 1 1 19 186
Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods 0 0 0 19 1 1 18 119
Discordant City Employment Cycles 0 0 0 14 0 0 15 112
Discordant city employment cycles 0 0 0 26 2 2 15 107
Discordant city employment cycles 0 0 0 39 0 2 9 110
Do Government Shutdowns Affect Subsequent Data Revisions? 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3
Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence 0 0 0 127 1 4 26 326
Does Uncertainty Really Predict Recessions? 0 9 9 9 4 10 10 10
Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption? 0 0 0 110 1 1 14 376
Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence 1 1 1 42 1 2 15 224
Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure 0 0 0 123 0 0 9 487
Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure 0 0 0 82 1 2 14 420
FOMC Actions and Recent Movements in Five-Year Inflation Expectations 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 8
FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications 0 0 0 52 4 9 45 199
Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy 0 0 0 57 0 1 18 191
Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data 0 0 0 89 2 2 33 116
Forecasting national recessions using state level data 0 0 0 48 0 0 13 125
Forecasting national recessions using state-level data 0 0 0 20 3 4 21 98
How Has Empirical Monetary Policy Analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis? 0 0 0 96 0 2 13 164
Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns 0 0 0 17 0 0 9 75
Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach 0 0 1 30 0 0 9 154
Identifying technology shocks in the frequency domain 0 0 1 92 2 7 16 162
Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models 0 0 0 12 1 1 15 26
Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models 0 0 0 1 0 1 16 24
Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements 0 0 1 17 0 0 13 55
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters 0 0 0 36 0 1 12 93
Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities 0 0 0 121 0 2 15 251
Is the U.S. in a Recession? What Key Economic Indicators Say 0 0 0 6 0 0 12 21
Job Quits, New-Business Applications and the Postpandemic Pace of U.S. Business Formation 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6
Making Sense of Recession Probabilities 0 0 2 14 2 2 15 24
Measuring The Effect of Shocks on Inequality: It's All About the Data 0 0 0 4 0 0 15 30
Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR 0 0 0 64 1 3 13 316
Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle 0 0 0 452 0 2 13 1,043
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing 0 0 0 13 1 1 7 74
Multivariate forecast evaluation and rationality testing 0 0 0 120 0 1 30 322
Nonlinear Hedonics and the Search for School District Quality 0 1 3 295 2 4 33 1,900
Nonlinear hedonics and the search for school district quality 0 0 0 82 0 0 13 360
Nonlinearities, Smoothing and Countercyclical Monetary Policy 0 0 0 64 1 1 17 113
Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 83
Pension or 401(k)? Retirement Plan Trends in the U.S. Workplace 0 0 1 11 1 2 15 25
Race and Subprime Loan Pricing 0 0 0 13 0 0 7 79
Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR 0 0 1 119 0 0 15 266
Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage 0 0 1 52 1 4 18 74
Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement 0 0 0 12 0 0 5 88
Regime switching and monetary policy measurement 0 0 0 128 0 2 13 347
Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy 0 0 0 130 0 0 7 287
Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage 0 0 0 22 0 1 9 305
Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage 0 0 0 83 2 2 20 456
Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement 0 0 1 137 1 1 24 321
States and the business cycle 0 0 0 136 0 1 14 440
Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy 0 0 1 245 0 1 11 741
Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications 0 0 0 260 0 1 7 849
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms and Trickle-Up Economics 0 0 1 8 1 2 17 28
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms, and Trickle-Up Economics 0 0 0 60 0 1 16 249
The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District 0 0 0 41 0 0 10 327
The Challenges in Dating the End of Recessions 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 11
The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves 0 0 1 32 0 0 8 30
The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks 0 0 2 83 1 1 15 214
The Propagation of Regional Recessions 0 0 0 79 0 1 14 200
The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach 0 0 1 85 1 3 14 296
The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions 0 0 0 21 0 0 10 149
The local effects of monetary policy 0 0 0 87 1 5 18 229
The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks 0 0 4 59 0 2 19 158
The propagation of regional recessions 0 0 0 147 1 2 21 271
The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks 0 0 0 110 1 1 10 368
What Are the Long-run Trade-offs of Rent-Control Policies? 0 0 0 13 0 0 11 28
What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology SHocks in G7-Countries 0 0 0 76 1 1 11 493
What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries? 0 0 0 7 0 1 15 112
What explains the varying monetary response to technology shocks in G-7 countries? 0 0 0 54 0 0 6 257
Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries 0 0 0 55 0 0 9 160
When Oil Prices Drop, Why Do Gasoline Prices Stay Elevated? 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Where is an oil shock? 0 0 0 46 1 1 11 181
Where is an oil shock? 0 0 0 41 0 0 11 158
Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis 0 1 2 78 0 1 13 300
Total Working Papers 4 15 41 6,904 65 142 1,423 24,161
1 registered items for which data could not be found


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 40
A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks 1 5 10 141 3 9 35 453
A Measure of Price Pressures 1 1 2 30 2 4 26 171
A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998 1 1 17 2,020 7 13 157 6,076
A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks 0 0 1 71 0 0 12 207
A state-level analysis of Okun's law 0 0 1 26 2 2 24 195
A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation 0 0 0 25 0 0 3 174
A time-varying threshold STAR model with applications 0 0 2 3 0 1 13 17
A winning combination? economic theory meets sports 0 0 1 60 0 0 7 184
Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis 0 0 0 2 0 0 9 18
An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles 0 0 3 12 1 2 18 66
Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data 0 0 2 181 5 5 23 569
Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts 0 0 1 10 0 2 12 49
Barreling down the road to recession? 0 0 0 7 0 0 10 95
Binary Conditional Forecasts 0 0 1 8 0 0 12 26
Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States 0 0 1 364 2 3 18 4,137
Business Cycles across Space and Time 0 0 2 5 0 0 11 33
Business cycle measures 0 0 0 222 0 0 5 357
Can a summer hike cause a surprise fall for mortgage rates? 0 0 0 4 0 0 2 110
Changing trends in the labor force: a survey 0 0 0 14 0 1 11 204
China's Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection, or Just Smoke and Mirrors? 0 0 4 93 4 5 38 302
Clustered housing cycles 0 0 0 14 0 0 13 77
Comparing Measures of Potential Output 0 0 0 27 0 1 9 120
Contagious switching 0 0 1 11 0 2 12 53
Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions 0 0 0 7 0 1 10 64
DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE 0 1 1 65 0 1 14 215
Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP 0 0 0 3 0 0 11 44
Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR 0 0 0 20 1 1 6 124
Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom? 0 0 0 4 0 0 14 75
Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods 0 0 1 11 0 2 20 130
Discordant city employment cycles 0 0 0 13 0 0 12 84
Discussion of “An approach for identifying and predicting economic recessions in real‐time using time‐frequency functional models”by Holan, Yang, Matteson, and Wikle 0 0 0 4 1 1 6 15
Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes 0 6 24 158 1 9 52 396
Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption? 0 0 0 94 2 2 10 402
Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles? 0 0 0 12 0 1 13 62
Economic Forecasting: Comparing the Fed with the Private Sector 0 0 0 11 0 0 8 38
Editor's introduction 0 0 0 10 0 0 6 44
Employment Revision Asymmetries 0 0 1 6 0 0 7 35
Extra credit: the rise of short-term liabilities 0 0 0 10 0 0 2 73
FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications 0 0 1 5 16 17 36 59
Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy 0 1 2 23 0 2 15 131
Financial aid and college choice 0 0 0 18 0 0 2 66
For love or money: why married men make more 0 0 1 94 0 0 8 520
Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data 0 1 1 13 0 1 14 89
Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data 0 0 0 9 1 1 12 30
Forecasting with mixed frequencies 1 7 30 283 1 13 71 668
Hard 'core' inflation 0 0 0 11 0 0 5 97
How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement? 1 1 2 7 2 2 11 34
How has empirical monetary policy analysis in the U.S. changed after the financial crisis? 0 0 0 9 1 3 22 155
Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 13
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters 0 0 1 6 1 2 10 43
Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure 0 0 0 24 0 0 7 90
Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities 0 0 1 135 0 0 44 485
Keep your résumé current 0 0 0 22 0 0 5 137
Look who's still working now 0 0 0 10 0 1 5 69
Look who's working now 0 0 0 11 0 1 6 63
Low unemployment: old dogs or new tricks? 0 0 0 20 0 1 8 153
Marriage, motherhood and money: how do women's life decisions influence their wages? 0 0 1 90 0 0 10 362
Measuring Potential Output 0 0 0 3 0 1 3 19
Measuring Trends in Income Inequality 0 0 0 14 0 0 3 80
Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach 0 0 0 49 0 0 4 258
Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach 0 0 0 10 0 1 12 49
Measuring the effect of school choice on economic outcomes 0 0 0 19 0 0 6 85
Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Model: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle 0 0 0 83 0 0 14 195
Monetary policy: the whole country gets the same treatment, but results vary 0 0 0 34 0 0 2 147
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing 0 1 3 70 0 1 16 234
Nonlinear effects of school quality on house prices 0 0 2 44 0 1 10 200
Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy 0 0 0 12 0 0 7 101
Not your father's oil shock 0 0 0 10 1 1 5 41
Not your father's pension plan: the rise of 401K and other defined contribution plans 0 0 0 418 6 6 13 1,412
Okun's law in recession and recovery 0 0 0 29 1 2 9 105
Okun's law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different? 1 2 8 113 2 5 51 464
On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts 0 0 0 10 0 0 18 41
Output and unemployment: how do they relate today? 0 0 2 67 0 0 11 185
Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation 0 0 1 18 1 1 14 185
Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation 0 0 0 68 1 1 16 267
Putting off retirement: the rise of the 401(k) 0 0 0 7 0 0 3 67
Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR 0 0 3 19 1 3 32 109
Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage 0 0 2 6 1 1 18 25
Regime switching and monetary policy measurement 0 0 0 151 2 3 9 406
Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics 1 1 2 7 3 5 26 50
Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy 1 1 1 76 3 6 14 221
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District 0 0 0 10 0 0 5 82
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District 0 0 0 4 2 3 17 90
Regional vs. Global: How Are Countries' Business Cycles Moving Together These Days? 0 0 2 84 0 0 11 204
Rockets and Feathers: Why Don't Gasoline Prices Always Move in Sync with Oil Prices? 0 0 0 33 4 21 83 198
Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage 0 0 0 33 0 1 15 719
So much for that merit raise: the link between wages and appearance 1 1 2 115 1 1 10 449
Social changes lead married women into labor force 0 0 3 99 0 2 13 308
Splitsville: the economics of unilateral divorce 0 0 0 20 0 0 2 81
States and the business cycle 0 0 1 88 1 2 17 335
Subject to revision 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 57
Subjective probabilities: psychological theories and economic applications 0 0 1 47 0 0 6 384
Survey says 0 0 0 6 0 0 9 67
Symmetric inflation risk 0 0 0 8 1 1 2 64
Taking Stock: Income Inequality and the Stock Market 0 0 0 11 1 1 6 88
The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District 0 0 0 18 0 0 11 171
The Local Effects of Monetary Policy 0 1 3 97 1 5 27 344
The Propagation of Regional Recessions 1 1 2 140 2 4 26 486
The baby-boom boom 0 0 0 10 0 0 8 80
The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach 0 0 0 67 0 1 22 257
The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions 0 0 0 13 0 0 10 105
The long and the short of the federal funds target cuts 0 0 0 6 0 1 6 60
The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks 0 0 4 54 20 27 55 198
The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks 0 0 0 91 1 1 15 356
Un estudio de caso de una crisis monetaria: el incumplimiento ruso de 1998 0 0 0 6 0 0 7 47
Unconventional oil production: stuck in a rock and a hard place 0 0 0 13 1 4 10 75
Understanding the Distribution of Inflation Expectations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices 0 0 0 29 0 1 27 110
WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE? A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF JOBLESS RECOVERIES 0 0 0 38 0 1 13 130
WHERE IS AN OIL SHOCK? 0 0 0 12 1 3 13 70
What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries? 0 0 0 21 0 0 7 143
What are the chances? 0 0 0 12 0 0 5 75
What's in a name? reconciling conflicting evidence on ethnic names 0 0 3 57 0 4 12 246
When do recessions begin and end? 0 0 0 11 0 1 8 60
Where there’s a smoking ban, there’s still fire 0 0 0 7 0 0 7 67
Who benefits from increased government spending? A state-level analysis 0 0 1 41 2 3 13 225
Working hard or hardly working? the evolution of leisure in the United States 0 0 0 47 0 0 6 223
Worth your weight? re-examining the link between obesity and wages 0 0 0 13 0 0 4 89
Your current job probably won't be your last 0 0 0 11 0 0 2 63
Total Journal Articles 10 32 162 7,290 113 238 1,802 30,550


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement 0 0 4 62 0 0 22 194
Total Chapters 0 0 4 62 0 0 22 194


Statistics updated 2026-09-10