Access Statistics for Herman O. Stekler

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS 0 0 0 111 4 13 13 233
A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts 0 0 2 13 0 2 5 87
A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts 1 1 1 62 1 4 9 107
Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts 0 0 0 51 1 7 12 189
Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? 0 0 1 87 0 12 13 202
Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion 1 1 1 66 2 6 8 159
EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS 0 0 0 43 1 4 5 152
EVALUATING FORECASTS OF A VECTOR OF VARIABLES: A GERMAN FORECASTING COMPETITION 0 0 0 14 0 7 12 80
Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession 0 0 0 100 5 11 13 163
Economic forecasts: evaluation procedures and results 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 298
Evaluating Consensus Forecasts 0 0 0 7 3 9 13 53
Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example 0 0 0 30 0 2 8 105
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition 0 0 0 19 0 5 9 57
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition 0 0 1 64 3 6 13 92
Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game 0 0 0 65 2 7 9 208
Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread 0 0 0 19 2 4 5 87
Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts 0 0 1 45 2 7 8 81
Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts 0 0 0 7 1 5 7 50
Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates 0 0 0 37 1 7 11 135
Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press 0 0 0 69 2 10 15 107
HOW DID THE FOMC VIEW THE GREAT RECESSION AS IT WAS HAPPENING?: EVALUATING THE MINUTES FROM FOMC MEETINGS, 2006-2010 0 0 1 30 2 8 12 73
Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved? 0 0 0 61 0 3 4 186
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved? 0 0 2 14 1 16 20 96
Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence 0 0 0 79 0 3 5 134
Issues in Sports Forecasting 0 0 0 119 0 2 10 354
Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule 0 0 0 21 0 3 6 91
Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation 0 0 0 58 1 5 6 204
Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions 0 0 1 21 1 7 8 127
Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector 0 0 0 140 0 6 10 733
Nowcasting German Turning Points Using CUSUM Analysis 0 0 0 8 1 4 6 33
Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts 0 0 0 107 0 3 6 226
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set 0 0 0 58 0 5 5 72
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set 0 0 0 5 3 5 7 35
Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games 0 0 0 37 1 7 9 142
Some problems in forecasting inventory investment 0 0 0 1 2 9 9 601
Sports Forecasting 0 0 0 66 5 12 15 464
The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession 0 0 0 28 1 5 5 88
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS? 0 0 0 20 0 5 6 69
Was the Deflation of the Depression Anticipated? An Inference Using Real-time Data 0 0 0 29 0 6 12 48
What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts? 0 0 0 69 0 9 11 117
What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts? 0 0 0 8 0 4 8 79
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk 0 0 0 7 2 7 7 32
Total Working Papers 2 2 11 1,895 51 265 378 6,649

Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Simulation of the Forecasting Performance of the Diffusion Index 0 0 0 8 1 3 5 35
A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts 0 0 1 66 5 10 12 197
A regional forecasting model for construction activity 0 0 0 32 1 5 6 89
A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts 0 0 0 8 0 4 9 57
An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts 0 0 0 36 0 4 7 134
An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts: A Polite Reply 0 0 0 21 0 6 8 122
An Analysis of the 1968-69 Economic Forecasts 0 0 0 10 0 3 3 71
An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Comment 0 0 0 7 0 3 5 44
An Evaluation of Quarterly Judgmental Economic Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 5 6 40
An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts 0 0 0 23 0 5 8 67
An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach 0 0 1 119 0 5 10 345
An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve 0 0 0 94 0 6 9 304
Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test 0 0 0 43 0 2 3 97
Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation 1 2 5 259 2 8 21 503
Book review 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 27
Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting: James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, (eds.), 1994, National Bureau of Economic Research, studies in business cycles, vol. 28, (University of Chicago pres 0 0 0 80 0 3 3 209
Can the Fed predict the state of the economy? 0 0 2 91 3 10 13 223
Combining the Results of rationality Studies: What Did We know and When Did We know It? 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 230
Comparative performance of U.S. econometric models: Lawrence R. Klein, (ed.), (Oxford University Press, New York, 1991) pp. 325, $45.00 0 0 0 28 0 0 1 86
DO POLLS OR MARKETS FORECAST BETTER? EVIDENCE FROM THE 2010 US SENATE ELECTIONS 1 1 1 15 1 2 2 54
Data revisions and forecasting 0 0 1 15 0 2 3 79
Data revisions in the U.S. international transactions statistics 0 0 0 5 0 6 8 53
Dating turning points in the business cycle: Michael D. Boldin, Journal of business, 67, 97-131 0 0 0 76 0 1 1 249
Dealer-Manufacturer Relationship in the Automobile Industry: Comment 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 10
Diagnosing unemployment: Edmond Malinvaud, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1994), pp. 156, $34.95, ISBN 0-521-44533-7 0 0 0 14 1 1 2 105
Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts 0 0 0 38 0 0 1 104
Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions 0 0 2 62 4 9 18 176
Do consensus forecasts exist? 0 0 0 31 1 4 5 82
Econometrics and structural change: Lyle D. Broemeling and Hiroki Tsurumi, (Marcel Dekker, New York, 1987) pp. 266, $59.75 0 0 0 49 1 2 3 181
Economic forecasting and contracyclical stabilization policy 0 0 0 9 2 5 5 47
Employment impact of public construction 0 0 0 28 0 0 1 74
Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game 0 0 0 65 0 3 6 284
Evaluating Predictions of Change 1 4 6 111 2 8 10 276
Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread 0 0 0 7 1 7 11 49
Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts 0 0 1 16 0 3 6 67
Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts 0 0 0 29 1 4 4 78
Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example 0 0 0 11 1 6 8 55
Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010 0 0 0 53 0 7 16 167
Evaluation of Econometric Inventory Forecasts 0 0 0 14 1 1 3 92
Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates 0 0 0 25 4 16 19 108
Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press 0 0 0 20 0 3 10 112
Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context 0 0 0 13 1 3 5 56
Forecasting Industrial Production--Leading Series versus Autoregression 0 0 1 34 0 5 6 114
Forecasting elections: Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 1992, (CQ Press, Washington, DC), 163 pp., paperback $18.95, ISBN 0-8718 7-600-0 0 0 2 95 0 0 5 411
Forecasting industrial bottlenecks: An analysis of alternative approaches 0 0 0 14 1 2 2 81
Forecasting methods for management: Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright, Fifth Edition (Wiley, New York, 1989), pp. 470, $52.95 (hard), $27.15, [UK pound]15.95 (soft) 0 1 1 287 0 3 5 1,175
Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession 0 0 0 11 0 2 3 51
Forecasting the GNP Price Deflator 0 0 0 18 1 3 3 135
Forecasts of a regional construction model: An evaluation 0 0 0 4 1 2 2 28
Forecasts of construction activity for states 0 0 0 4 2 2 2 35
Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved? 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 5
Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved? 0 0 0 17 1 10 11 78
Improving our ability to predict the unusual event 0 0 0 33 0 3 7 385
Information Problems for Policy Analysis and Forecasting 0 0 0 69 0 4 5 440
Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence 0 0 2 22 2 6 12 96
Interpreting and evaluating CESIfo's World Economic Survey directional forecasts 0 0 0 22 0 10 12 87
Interpreting the Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession 0 0 0 15 0 3 6 75
Introduction 0 0 0 4 0 2 3 32
Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting" 1 1 1 42 1 6 7 126
Irrational Exuberance: Robert Shiller, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2000. Hardcover, 296 pages, ISBN 0-691-05062-7, $27.95 2 4 8 150 2 7 19 457
Is there a consensus among financial forecasters? 0 0 0 27 0 4 5 94
Issues in sports forecasting 1 1 4 134 3 9 23 628
Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation 0 0 0 20 2 8 9 106
Kiplinger's looking ahead: 70 years of forecasts from the Kiplinger Washington letter: 1993, (Kiplinger Books, Washington, DC) $29.95, ISBN 0-938721-31-3 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 147
Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques 0 0 0 179 1 7 8 437
Market and survey forecasts of the three-month treasury bill rate: R.W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein and S. Scott MacDonald, Journal of Business (1991) forthcoming 0 0 0 15 1 5 5 144
Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions 0 0 0 45 0 7 15 340
Measuring the Onset of the Great Depression: Then and Now 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 1,010
Methodological issues in forecasting: Insights from the egregious business forecast errors of late 1930 0 0 0 65 1 5 9 299
Modeling fully employed economies 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 41
Modeling high levels of defense expenditures: A Vietnam 0 0 0 5 0 3 3 31
Nowcasting: Identifying German Cyclical Turning Points 0 0 0 15 0 6 9 50
Optimal Stabilization Policies for Deterministic and Stochastic Linear Systems: Comments 0 0 1 8 0 1 5 47
Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games 0 0 0 49 0 1 2 220
Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games 0 1 2 243 4 10 15 583
Ray C. Fair, Estimating How the Economy Works, Harvard University Press, Cambridge MA, USA (2004) ISBN 0674-01546-0 295 pp., $65 0 0 0 15 0 1 1 98
Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting' 0 0 0 17 0 9 13 158
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting: Comment 0 0 0 19 0 2 3 69
Sources of turning point forecast errors 0 0 0 21 0 1 2 90
Sports forecasting 0 0 3 112 2 7 30 442
Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market 0 0 0 121 1 5 7 374
The Federal Budget as a Short-Term Forecasting Tool 0 0 0 9 0 2 2 52
The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results 2 2 5 157 4 11 18 435
The Savings Rate as a Tool of Economic Analysis 0 0 0 6 0 3 4 54
The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games 0 1 1 101 0 9 11 353
The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process 0 0 0 70 1 6 8 244
The lead and accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts 0 0 0 17 2 5 7 68
The state of macroeconomic forecasting 1 1 3 361 3 8 15 719
The term spread as a cyclical indicator: a forecasting evaluation 0 0 0 78 0 3 10 302
The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation 0 0 0 24 0 5 6 84
Was the deflation of the depression anticipated? An inference using real-time data 0 0 1 7 1 6 8 32
What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts? 0 0 0 28 2 7 9 142
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk 0 0 0 3 0 2 2 36
Wheat from Chaff: Meta-Analysis as Quantitative Literature Review: Comment 0 0 0 71 0 0 1 339
Who Forecasts Better? [Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment] 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 158
Who forecasts better?: Herman O. Stekler, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 5 (1987) 155-158 0 0 0 68 0 2 2 218
Why Do Empirical Results Change? Forecasts as Tests of Rational Expectations 0 0 0 4 0 2 3 15
Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession? 0 0 0 98 1 3 7 338
Why do Forecasters Underestimate? 0 0 0 0 2 6 6 62
Total Journal Articles 10 19 56 4,703 76 423 683 18,308
1 registered items for which data could not be found

Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Fuzziness in Economic Systems, Its Modeling and Control 0 0 0 6 0 2 3 36
Total Chapters 0 0 0 6 0 2 3 36

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Statistics updated 2026-03-04