Access Statistics for Herman O. Stekler

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS 0 0 0 111 1 8 17 237
A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts 0 0 2 13 0 0 5 87
A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts 0 1 1 62 1 2 10 108
Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts 0 0 0 51 0 1 12 189
Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? 0 0 0 87 3 5 17 207
Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion 0 1 1 66 1 4 10 161
EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS 0 0 0 43 1 2 6 153
EVALUATING FORECASTS OF A VECTOR OF VARIABLES: A GERMAN FORECASTING COMPETITION 0 0 0 14 1 2 14 82
Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession 0 0 0 100 1 9 17 167
Economic forecasts: evaluation procedures and results 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 299
Evaluating Consensus Forecasts 0 0 0 7 1 4 13 54
Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example 0 0 0 30 1 1 9 106
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition 0 0 0 19 4 4 13 61
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition 0 0 1 64 0 3 13 92
Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game 0 0 0 65 0 3 10 209
Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread 0 0 0 19 4 7 10 92
Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts 0 0 1 45 0 3 9 82
Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts 0 0 0 7 2 3 9 52
Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates 0 0 0 37 1 2 12 136
Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press 0 0 0 69 1 3 16 108
HOW DID THE FOMC VIEW THE GREAT RECESSION AS IT WAS HAPPENING?: EVALUATING THE MINUTES FROM FOMC MEETINGS, 2006-2010 0 0 1 30 3 7 17 78
Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved? 0 0 0 61 1 2 6 188
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved? 0 0 2 14 6 10 29 105
Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence 0 0 0 79 1 2 6 136
Issues in Sports Forecasting 0 0 0 119 4 6 16 360
Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule 0 0 0 21 2 3 8 94
Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation 0 0 0 58 0 2 7 205
Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions 0 0 1 21 0 2 9 128
Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector 0 0 0 140 9 9 19 742
Nowcasting German Turning Points Using CUSUM Analysis 0 0 0 8 1 2 7 34
Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts 0 0 0 107 2 2 8 228
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set 0 0 0 58 2 3 8 75
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set 0 0 0 5 3 7 11 39
Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games 0 0 0 37 1 7 15 148
Some problems in forecasting inventory investment 0 0 0 1 5 7 14 606
Sports Forecasting 0 0 0 66 2 8 18 467
The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession 0 0 0 28 3 5 9 92
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS? 0 0 0 20 7 7 13 76
Was the Deflation of the Depression Anticipated? An Inference Using Real-time Data 0 0 0 29 2 2 14 50
What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts? 0 0 0 69 2 2 13 119
What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts? 0 0 0 8 1 1 9 80
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk 0 0 0 7 1 3 8 33
Total Working Papers 0 2 10 1,895 82 167 490 6,765

Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Simulation of the Forecasting Performance of the Diffusion Index 0 0 0 8 2 3 7 37
A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts 0 0 1 66 5 11 17 203
A regional forecasting model for construction activity 0 0 0 32 1 2 7 90
A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts 0 0 0 8 3 4 12 61
An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts 0 0 0 36 1 1 8 135
An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts: A Polite Reply 0 0 0 21 1 2 10 124
An Analysis of the 1968-69 Economic Forecasts 0 0 0 10 0 0 3 71
An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Comment 0 0 0 7 4 4 9 48
An Evaluation of Quarterly Judgmental Economic Forecasts 0 0 0 5 3 3 9 43
An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts 0 0 0 23 1 2 10 69
An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach 0 0 1 119 4 5 14 350
An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve 0 0 0 94 1 1 10 305
Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test 0 0 0 43 0 1 4 98
Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation 0 1 4 259 4 8 23 509
Book review 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 28
Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting: James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, (eds.), 1994, National Bureau of Economic Research, studies in business cycles, vol. 28, (University of Chicago pres 0 0 0 80 3 3 6 212
Can the Fed predict the state of the economy? 0 0 1 91 1 8 17 228
Combining the Results of rationality Studies: What Did We know and When Did We know It? 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 230
Comparative performance of U.S. econometric models: Lawrence R. Klein, (ed.), (Oxford University Press, New York, 1991) pp. 325, $45.00 0 0 0 28 2 2 3 88
DO POLLS OR MARKETS FORECAST BETTER? EVIDENCE FROM THE 2010 US SENATE ELECTIONS 0 1 1 15 0 1 2 54
Data revisions and forecasting 0 0 0 15 2 3 5 82
Data revisions in the U.S. international transactions statistics 0 0 0 5 2 3 11 56
Dating turning points in the business cycle: Michael D. Boldin, Journal of business, 67, 97-131 0 0 0 76 2 2 3 251
Dealer-Manufacturer Relationship in the Automobile Industry: Comment 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 12
Diagnosing unemployment: Edmond Malinvaud, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1994), pp. 156, $34.95, ISBN 0-521-44533-7 0 0 0 14 0 2 2 106
Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts 0 0 0 38 2 2 3 106
Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions 0 0 0 62 1 6 15 178
Do consensus forecasts exist? 0 0 0 31 2 3 7 84
Econometrics and structural change: Lyle D. Broemeling and Hiroki Tsurumi, (Marcel Dekker, New York, 1987) pp. 266, $59.75 0 0 0 49 2 4 6 184
Economic forecasting and contracyclical stabilization policy 0 0 0 9 1 3 6 48
Employment impact of public construction 0 0 0 28 0 0 1 74
Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game 0 0 0 65 4 4 10 288
Evaluating Predictions of Change 1 2 7 112 4 7 15 281
Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread 0 0 0 7 2 4 13 52
Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts 0 0 1 16 5 6 12 73
Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts 0 0 0 29 2 3 6 80
Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example 0 0 0 11 2 4 11 58
Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010 0 0 0 53 1 4 20 171
Evaluation of Econometric Inventory Forecasts 0 0 0 14 2 3 5 94
Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates 0 0 0 25 5 9 23 113
Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press 0 0 0 20 2 2 10 114
Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context 0 0 0 13 3 4 8 59
Forecasting Industrial Production--Leading Series versus Autoregression 0 0 1 34 1 1 7 115
Forecasting elections: Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 1992, (CQ Press, Washington, DC), 163 pp., paperback $18.95, ISBN 0-8718 7-600-0 0 0 1 95 4 4 8 415
Forecasting industrial bottlenecks: An analysis of alternative approaches 0 0 0 14 1 3 4 83
Forecasting methods for management: Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright, Fifth Edition (Wiley, New York, 1989), pp. 470, $52.95 (hard), $27.15, [UK pound]15.95 (soft) 0 1 2 288 5 6 10 1,181
Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession 0 0 0 11 1 1 4 52
Forecasting the GNP Price Deflator 0 0 0 18 2 3 5 137
Forecasts of a regional construction model: An evaluation 0 0 0 4 2 3 4 30
Forecasts of construction activity for states 0 0 0 4 0 2 2 35
Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved? 0 0 1 2 2 5 8 10
Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved? 0 0 0 17 1 7 17 84
Improving our ability to predict the unusual event 0 0 0 33 1 1 8 386
Information Problems for Policy Analysis and Forecasting 0 0 0 69 0 0 5 440
Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence 0 0 2 22 1 6 16 100
Interpreting and evaluating CESIfo's World Economic Survey directional forecasts 0 0 0 22 3 3 15 90
Interpreting the Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession 0 0 0 15 3 3 9 78
Introduction 0 0 0 4 2 2 5 34
Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting" 0 1 1 42 0 1 7 126
Irrational Exuberance: Robert Shiller, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2000. Hardcover, 296 pages, ISBN 0-691-05062-7, $27.95 0 2 8 150 3 5 22 460
Is there a consensus among financial forecasters? 0 0 0 27 1 1 6 95
Issues in sports forecasting 1 2 3 135 4 9 25 634
Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation 0 0 0 20 2 4 11 108
Kiplinger's looking ahead: 70 years of forecasts from the Kiplinger Washington letter: 1993, (Kiplinger Books, Washington, DC) $29.95, ISBN 0-938721-31-3 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 147
Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques 0 0 0 179 0 2 9 438
Market and survey forecasts of the three-month treasury bill rate: R.W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein and S. Scott MacDonald, Journal of Business (1991) forthcoming 0 0 0 15 2 3 7 146
Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions 0 0 0 45 2 3 18 343
Measuring the Onset of the Great Depression: Then and Now 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1,010
Methodological issues in forecasting: Insights from the egregious business forecast errors of late 1930 0 0 0 65 2 3 9 301
Modeling fully employed economies 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 41
Modeling high levels of defense expenditures: A Vietnam 0 0 0 5 0 0 3 31
Nowcasting: Identifying German Cyclical Turning Points 0 0 0 15 0 0 9 50
Optimal Stabilization Policies for Deterministic and Stochastic Linear Systems: Comments 0 0 1 8 1 1 6 48
Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games 0 0 0 49 1 2 4 222
Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games 0 2 4 245 3 10 19 589
Ray C. Fair, Estimating How the Economy Works, Harvard University Press, Cambridge MA, USA (2004) ISBN 0674-01546-0 295 pp., $65 0 0 0 15 1 2 3 100
Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting' 0 0 0 17 2 3 16 161
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting: Comment 0 0 0 19 1 1 4 70
Sources of turning point forecast errors 0 0 0 21 2 2 4 92
Sports forecasting 0 0 2 112 8 12 31 452
Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market 0 0 0 121 2 4 10 377
The Federal Budget as a Short-Term Forecasting Tool 0 0 0 9 1 1 3 53
The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results 0 2 4 157 3 8 19 439
The Savings Rate as a Tool of Economic Analysis 0 0 0 6 1 2 6 56
The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games 0 0 1 101 4 4 15 357
The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process 0 0 0 70 1 2 9 245
The lead and accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts 0 0 0 17 1 3 8 69
The state of macroeconomic forecasting 0 1 3 361 2 8 20 724
The term spread as a cyclical indicator: a forecasting evaluation 0 0 0 78 3 3 6 305
The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation 0 0 0 24 3 3 9 87
Was the deflation of the depression anticipated? An inference using real-time data 0 0 1 7 4 5 12 36
What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts? 0 0 0 28 7 12 19 152
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk 0 0 0 3 2 2 4 38
Wheat from Chaff: Meta-Analysis as Quantitative Literature Review: Comment 0 0 0 71 0 0 1 339
Who Forecasts Better? [Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment] 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 158
Who forecasts better?: Herman O. Stekler, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 5 (1987) 155-158 0 0 0 68 2 2 4 220
Why Do Empirical Results Change? Forecasts as Tests of Rational Expectations 0 0 0 4 0 0 3 15
Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession? 0 0 0 98 0 1 7 338
Why do Forecasters Underestimate? 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 62
Total Journal Articles 2 15 51 4,708 185 319 876 18,551
1 registered items for which data could not be found

Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Fuzziness in Economic Systems, Its Modeling and Control 0 0 0 6 0 0 3 36
Total Chapters 0 0 0 6 0 0 3 36

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Statistics updated 2026-05-06