Access Statistics for Herman O. Stekler

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS 0 0 0 111 0 4 17 237
A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts 0 0 2 13 1 1 6 88
A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts 0 0 1 62 0 1 10 108
Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts 0 0 0 51 1 1 13 190
Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? 0 0 0 87 0 5 17 207
Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion 0 0 1 66 0 2 10 161
EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS 0 0 0 43 0 1 6 153
EVALUATING FORECASTS OF A VECTOR OF VARIABLES: A GERMAN FORECASTING COMPETITION 0 0 0 14 1 3 15 83
Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession 0 0 0 100 1 5 18 168
Economic forecasts: evaluation procedures and results 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 299
Evaluating Consensus Forecasts 0 0 0 7 0 1 13 54
Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example 0 0 0 30 0 1 9 106
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition 0 0 0 19 0 4 13 61
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition 0 0 1 64 0 0 12 92
Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game 0 0 0 65 0 1 9 209
Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread 0 0 0 19 0 5 10 92
Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts 0 0 1 45 1 2 10 83
Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts 0 0 0 7 0 2 9 52
Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates 0 0 0 37 1 2 12 137
Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press 0 0 0 69 0 1 16 108
HOW DID THE FOMC VIEW THE GREAT RECESSION AS IT WAS HAPPENING?: EVALUATING THE MINUTES FROM FOMC MEETINGS, 2006-2010 0 0 0 30 0 5 16 78
Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved? 0 0 0 61 0 2 6 188
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved? 0 0 2 14 3 12 32 108
Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence 0 0 0 79 0 2 6 136
Issues in Sports Forecasting 0 0 0 119 1 7 17 361
Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule 0 0 0 21 1 4 8 95
Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation 0 0 0 58 1 2 8 206
Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions 0 0 1 21 0 1 9 128
Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector 0 0 0 140 0 9 19 742
Nowcasting German Turning Points Using CUSUM Analysis 0 0 0 8 0 1 7 34
Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts 0 0 0 107 0 2 7 228
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set 0 0 0 5 0 4 11 39
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set 0 0 0 58 0 3 8 75
Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games 0 0 0 37 2 8 17 150
Some problems in forecasting inventory investment 0 0 0 1 0 5 14 606
Sports Forecasting 0 0 0 66 2 5 20 469
The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession 0 0 0 28 0 4 9 92
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS? 0 0 0 20 0 7 13 76
Was the Deflation of the Depression Anticipated? An Inference Using Real-time Data 0 0 0 29 1 3 15 51
What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts? 0 0 0 69 1 3 14 120
What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts? 0 0 0 8 1 2 10 81
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk 0 0 0 7 1 2 9 34
Total Working Papers 0 0 9 1,895 20 136 504 6,785

Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Simulation of the Forecasting Performance of the Diffusion Index 0 0 0 8 0 2 6 37
A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts 0 0 1 66 0 6 17 203
A regional forecasting model for construction activity 0 0 0 32 0 1 7 90
A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts 0 0 0 8 1 5 10 62
An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts 0 0 0 36 0 1 8 135
An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts: A Polite Reply 0 0 0 21 0 2 10 124
An Analysis of the 1968-69 Economic Forecasts 0 0 0 10 1 1 4 72
An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Comment 0 0 0 7 0 4 9 48
An Evaluation of Quarterly Judgmental Economic Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 3 9 43
An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts 0 0 0 23 0 2 10 69
An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach 0 0 1 119 2 7 15 352
An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve 0 0 0 94 1 2 11 306
Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test 0 0 0 43 0 1 4 98
Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation 1 1 5 260 1 7 24 510
Book review 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 28
Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting: James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, (eds.), 1994, National Bureau of Economic Research, studies in business cycles, vol. 28, (University of Chicago pres 0 0 0 80 0 3 6 212
Can the Fed predict the state of the economy? 0 0 1 91 0 5 17 228
Combining the Results of rationality Studies: What Did We know and When Did We know It? 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 230
Comparative performance of U.S. econometric models: Lawrence R. Klein, (ed.), (Oxford University Press, New York, 1991) pp. 325, $45.00 0 0 0 28 0 2 3 88
DO POLLS OR MARKETS FORECAST BETTER? EVIDENCE FROM THE 2010 US SENATE ELECTIONS 0 0 1 15 1 1 3 55
Data revisions and forecasting 0 0 0 15 0 3 5 82
Data revisions in the U.S. international transactions statistics 0 0 0 5 0 3 11 56
Dating turning points in the business cycle: Michael D. Boldin, Journal of business, 67, 97-131 0 0 0 76 0 2 3 251
Dealer-Manufacturer Relationship in the Automobile Industry: Comment 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 12
Diagnosing unemployment: Edmond Malinvaud, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1994), pp. 156, $34.95, ISBN 0-521-44533-7 0 0 0 14 0 1 2 106
Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts 0 0 0 38 0 2 3 106
Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions 1 1 1 63 2 4 17 180
Do consensus forecasts exist? 0 0 0 31 1 3 8 85
Econometrics and structural change: Lyle D. Broemeling and Hiroki Tsurumi, (Marcel Dekker, New York, 1987) pp. 266, $59.75 0 0 0 49 0 3 6 184
Economic forecasting and contracyclical stabilization policy 0 0 0 9 0 1 6 48
Employment impact of public construction 0 0 0 28 0 0 1 74
Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game 0 0 0 65 0 4 10 288
Evaluating Predictions of Change 0 1 7 112 2 7 17 283
Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread 0 0 0 7 0 3 13 52
Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts 0 0 1 16 0 6 12 73
Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts 0 0 0 29 0 2 6 80
Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example 0 0 0 11 0 3 11 58
Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010 0 0 0 53 1 5 20 172
Evaluation of Econometric Inventory Forecasts 0 0 0 14 0 2 5 94
Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates 0 0 0 25 0 5 23 113
Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press 0 0 0 20 0 2 9 114
Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context 0 0 0 13 0 3 8 59
Forecasting Industrial Production--Leading Series versus Autoregression 0 0 1 34 0 1 7 115
Forecasting elections: Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 1992, (CQ Press, Washington, DC), 163 pp., paperback $18.95, ISBN 0-8718 7-600-0 0 0 1 95 0 4 8 415
Forecasting industrial bottlenecks: An analysis of alternative approaches 0 0 0 14 0 2 4 83
Forecasting methods for management: Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright, Fifth Edition (Wiley, New York, 1989), pp. 470, $52.95 (hard), $27.15, [UK pound]15.95 (soft) 0 1 2 288 0 6 9 1,181
Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession 0 0 0 11 0 1 4 52
Forecasting the GNP Price Deflator 0 0 0 18 0 2 5 137
Forecasts of a regional construction model: An evaluation 0 0 0 4 0 2 4 30
Forecasts of construction activity for states 0 0 0 4 0 0 2 35
Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved? 0 0 0 17 3 9 20 87
Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved? 0 0 1 2 4 9 12 14
Improving our ability to predict the unusual event 0 0 0 33 0 1 8 386
Information Problems for Policy Analysis and Forecasting 0 0 0 69 0 0 5 440
Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence 0 0 2 22 1 5 17 101
Interpreting and evaluating CESIfo's World Economic Survey directional forecasts 0 0 0 22 0 3 15 90
Interpreting the Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession 0 0 0 15 0 3 9 78
Introduction 0 0 0 4 0 2 5 34
Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting" 0 0 1 42 1 1 8 127
Irrational Exuberance: Robert Shiller, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2000. Hardcover, 296 pages, ISBN 0-691-05062-7, $27.95 1 1 9 151 4 7 26 464
Is there a consensus among financial forecasters? 0 0 0 27 0 1 6 95
Issues in sports forecasting 0 1 2 135 1 7 23 635
Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation 0 0 0 20 0 2 11 108
Kiplinger's looking ahead: 70 years of forecasts from the Kiplinger Washington letter: 1993, (Kiplinger Books, Washington, DC) $29.95, ISBN 0-938721-31-3 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 147
Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques 0 0 0 179 0 1 9 438
Market and survey forecasts of the three-month treasury bill rate: R.W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein and S. Scott MacDonald, Journal of Business (1991) forthcoming 0 0 0 15 1 3 8 147
Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions 0 0 0 45 0 3 12 343
Measuring the Onset of the Great Depression: Then and Now 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 1,011
Methodological issues in forecasting: Insights from the egregious business forecast errors of late 1930 0 0 0 65 0 2 8 301
Modeling fully employed economies 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 41
Modeling high levels of defense expenditures: A Vietnam 0 0 0 5 0 0 3 31
Nowcasting: Identifying German Cyclical Turning Points 0 0 0 15 0 0 8 50
Optimal Stabilization Policies for Deterministic and Stochastic Linear Systems: Comments 0 0 1 8 1 2 7 49
Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games 0 0 0 49 0 2 4 222
Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games 0 2 4 245 1 7 20 590
Ray C. Fair, Estimating How the Economy Works, Harvard University Press, Cambridge MA, USA (2004) ISBN 0674-01546-0 295 pp., $65 0 0 0 15 0 2 3 100
Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting' 0 0 0 17 1 4 17 162
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting: Comment 0 0 0 19 0 1 4 70
Sources of turning point forecast errors 0 0 0 21 0 2 4 92
Sports forecasting 0 0 2 112 2 12 31 454
Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market 1 1 1 122 2 5 12 379
The Federal Budget as a Short-Term Forecasting Tool 0 0 0 9 0 1 3 53
The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results 0 0 4 157 0 4 19 439
The Savings Rate as a Tool of Economic Analysis 0 0 0 6 0 2 6 56
The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games 0 0 1 101 0 4 15 357
The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process 0 0 0 70 3 4 12 248
The lead and accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts 0 0 0 17 0 1 8 69
The state of macroeconomic forecasting 0 0 3 361 1 6 21 725
The term spread as a cyclical indicator: a forecasting evaluation 0 0 0 78 0 3 6 305
The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation 0 0 0 24 0 3 9 87
Was the deflation of the depression anticipated? An inference using real-time data 0 0 1 7 1 5 13 37
What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts? 0 0 0 28 5 15 24 157
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk 0 0 0 3 0 2 4 38
Wheat from Chaff: Meta-Analysis as Quantitative Literature Review: Comment 0 0 0 71 0 0 1 339
Who Forecasts Better? [Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment] 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 158
Who forecasts better?: Herman O. Stekler, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 5 (1987) 155-158 0 0 0 68 0 2 4 220
Why Do Empirical Results Change? Forecasts as Tests of Rational Expectations 0 0 0 4 0 0 3 15
Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession? 0 0 0 98 0 0 7 338
Why do Forecasters Underestimate? 0 0 0 0 1 1 7 63
Total Journal Articles 4 9 54 4,712 47 290 902 18,598
1 registered items for which data could not be found

Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Fuzziness in Economic Systems, Its Modeling and Control 0 0 0 6 1 1 4 37
Total Chapters 0 0 0 6 1 1 4 37

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Statistics updated 2026-06-04