Access Statistics for Herman O. Stekler

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS 0 0 0 111 7 7 7 227
A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts 0 0 2 13 0 1 3 85
A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts 0 0 0 61 0 4 5 103
Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts 0 0 0 51 0 5 5 182
Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? 0 0 1 87 2 2 5 192
Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion 0 0 0 65 2 4 4 155
EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS 0 0 0 43 2 2 4 150
EVALUATING FORECASTS OF A VECTOR OF VARIABLES: A GERMAN FORECASTING COMPETITION 0 0 0 14 3 6 8 76
Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession 0 0 0 100 1 2 4 153
Economic forecasts: evaluation procedures and results 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 295
Evaluating Consensus Forecasts 0 0 0 7 2 4 6 46
Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example 0 0 0 30 0 4 7 103
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition 0 0 0 19 1 4 6 53
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition 0 1 1 64 2 6 11 88
Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game 0 0 1 65 1 2 4 202
Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread 0 0 0 19 1 1 2 84
Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts 0 0 1 45 0 0 1 74
Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts 0 0 0 7 2 3 5 47
Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates 0 0 0 37 2 5 7 130
Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press 0 0 0 69 3 6 8 100
HOW DID THE FOMC VIEW THE GREAT RECESSION AS IT WAS HAPPENING?: EVALUATING THE MINUTES FROM FOMC MEETINGS, 2006-2010 0 0 1 30 2 4 6 67
Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved? 0 0 0 61 0 1 1 183
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved? 0 0 2 14 2 3 6 82
Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence 0 0 0 79 1 1 3 132
Issues in Sports Forecasting 0 0 1 119 1 3 12 353
Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule 0 0 0 21 0 1 4 88
Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation 0 0 0 58 2 3 3 201
Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions 0 0 1 21 3 3 4 123
Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector 0 0 0 140 2 6 9 729
Nowcasting German Turning Points Using CUSUM Analysis 0 0 0 8 1 3 3 30
Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts 0 0 0 107 0 2 4 223
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set 0 0 0 5 1 2 4 31
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set 0 0 0 58 1 1 2 68
Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games 0 0 0 37 4 5 6 139
Some problems in forecasting inventory investment 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 593
Sports Forecasting 0 0 0 66 4 5 8 456
The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession 0 0 0 28 2 2 2 85
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS? 0 0 0 20 2 3 3 66
Was the Deflation of the Depression Anticipated? An Inference Using Real-time Data 0 0 0 29 1 7 7 43
What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts? 0 0 0 69 0 2 3 108
What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts? 0 0 0 8 2 5 6 77
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk 0 0 0 7 2 2 2 27
Total Working Papers 0 1 11 1,893 65 133 202 6,449

Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Simulation of the Forecasting Performance of the Diffusion Index 0 0 0 8 1 2 4 33
A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts 0 0 1 66 4 4 8 191
A regional forecasting model for construction activity 0 0 0 32 0 0 1 84
A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts 0 0 0 8 2 3 7 55
An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts 0 0 1 36 1 2 5 131
An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts: A Polite Reply 0 0 0 21 0 1 2 116
An Analysis of the 1968-69 Economic Forecasts 0 0 0 10 1 1 1 69
An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Comment 0 0 0 7 0 1 2 41
An Evaluation of Quarterly Judgmental Economic Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 1 1 35
An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts 0 0 0 23 0 3 3 62
An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach 0 0 1 119 2 2 7 342
An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve 0 0 0 94 0 2 3 298
Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test 0 0 0 43 0 1 1 95
Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation 0 1 4 257 2 8 20 497
Book review 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 26
Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting: James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, (eds.), 1994, National Bureau of Economic Research, studies in business cycles, vol. 28, (University of Chicago pres 0 0 0 80 1 1 1 207
Can the Fed predict the state of the economy? 0 0 2 91 3 3 6 216
Combining the Results of rationality Studies: What Did We know and When Did We know It? 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 230
Comparative performance of U.S. econometric models: Lawrence R. Klein, (ed.), (Oxford University Press, New York, 1991) pp. 325, $45.00 0 0 0 28 0 1 2 86
DO POLLS OR MARKETS FORECAST BETTER? EVIDENCE FROM THE 2010 US SENATE ELECTIONS 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 52
Data revisions and forecasting 0 0 1 15 0 0 2 77
Data revisions in the U.S. international transactions statistics 0 0 0 5 0 2 3 47
Dating turning points in the business cycle: Michael D. Boldin, Journal of business, 67, 97-131 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 248
Dealer-Manufacturer Relationship in the Automobile Industry: Comment 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 10
Diagnosing unemployment: Edmond Malinvaud, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1994), pp. 156, $34.95, ISBN 0-521-44533-7 0 0 0 14 0 0 2 104
Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts 0 0 0 38 0 1 1 104
Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions 0 0 2 62 1 3 10 168
Do consensus forecasts exist? 0 0 0 31 2 2 4 80
Econometrics and structural change: Lyle D. Broemeling and Hiroki Tsurumi, (Marcel Dekker, New York, 1987) pp. 266, $59.75 0 0 0 49 0 0 1 179
Economic forecasting and contracyclical stabilization policy 0 0 0 9 3 3 3 45
Employment impact of public construction 0 0 0 28 0 1 1 74
Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game 0 0 0 65 3 5 7 284
Evaluating Predictions of Change 1 2 6 108 1 2 6 269
Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread 0 0 0 7 2 4 6 44
Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts 0 0 1 16 1 3 4 65
Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts 0 0 0 29 1 1 5 75
Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example 0 0 0 11 4 4 6 53
Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010 0 0 0 53 1 7 10 161
Evaluation of Econometric Inventory Forecasts 0 0 0 14 0 2 2 91
Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates 0 0 0 25 4 6 8 96
Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press 0 0 0 20 0 2 8 109
Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context 0 0 0 13 0 2 2 53
Forecasting Industrial Production--Leading Series versus Autoregression 0 1 1 34 3 4 4 112
Forecasting elections: Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 1992, (CQ Press, Washington, DC), 163 pp., paperback $18.95, ISBN 0-8718 7-600-0 0 0 2 95 0 1 5 411
Forecasting industrial bottlenecks: An analysis of alternative approaches 0 0 0 14 0 0 1 79
Forecasting methods for management: Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright, Fifth Edition (Wiley, New York, 1989), pp. 470, $52.95 (hard), $27.15, [UK pound]15.95 (soft) 1 1 2 287 1 1 5 1,173
Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession 0 0 0 11 1 1 2 50
Forecasting the GNP Price Deflator 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 132
Forecasts of a regional construction model: An evaluation 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 26
Forecasts of construction activity for states 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 33
Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved? 0 0 0 17 1 2 2 69
Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved? 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 3
Improving our ability to predict the unusual event 0 0 0 33 1 5 5 383
Information Problems for Policy Analysis and Forecasting 0 0 0 69 0 0 2 436
Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence 0 0 2 22 1 4 7 91
Interpreting and evaluating CESIfo's World Economic Survey directional forecasts 0 0 0 22 4 4 6 81
Interpreting the Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession 0 0 0 15 1 4 4 73
Introduction 0 0 0 4 0 1 2 30
Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting" 0 0 0 41 1 1 2 121
Irrational Exuberance: Robert Shiller, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2000. Hardcover, 296 pages, ISBN 0-691-05062-7, $27.95 2 4 10 148 2 6 27 452
Is there a consensus among financial forecasters? 0 0 0 27 1 2 2 91
Issues in sports forecasting 0 0 3 133 2 3 19 621
Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation 0 0 0 20 1 2 2 99
Kiplinger's looking ahead: 70 years of forecasts from the Kiplinger Washington letter: 1993, (Kiplinger Books, Washington, DC) $29.95, ISBN 0-938721-31-3 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 147
Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques 0 0 0 179 1 2 3 431
Market and survey forecasts of the three-month treasury bill rate: R.W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein and S. Scott MacDonald, Journal of Business (1991) forthcoming 0 0 0 15 2 2 2 141
Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions 0 0 0 45 4 5 14 337
Measuring the Onset of the Great Depression: Then and Now 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1,008
Methodological issues in forecasting: Insights from the egregious business forecast errors of late 1930 0 0 0 65 1 2 5 295
Modeling fully employed economies 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 40
Modeling high levels of defense expenditures: A Vietnam 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 28
Nowcasting: Identifying German Cyclical Turning Points 0 0 0 15 2 4 7 46
Optimal Stabilization Policies for Deterministic and Stochastic Linear Systems: Comments 0 1 1 8 0 4 5 46
Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games 0 0 0 49 0 1 1 219
Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games 0 1 1 242 2 5 7 575
Ray C. Fair, Estimating How the Economy Works, Harvard University Press, Cambridge MA, USA (2004) ISBN 0674-01546-0 295 pp., $65 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 97
Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting' 0 0 0 17 2 5 6 151
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting: Comment 0 0 0 19 1 2 3 68
Sources of turning point forecast errors 0 0 0 21 1 1 2 90
Sports forecasting 0 0 3 112 1 5 28 436
Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market 0 0 0 121 1 1 3 370
The Federal Budget as a Short-Term Forecasting Tool 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 50
The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results 0 0 4 155 1 2 10 425
The Savings Rate as a Tool of Economic Analysis 0 0 0 6 0 1 1 51
The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games 1 1 1 101 5 7 7 349
The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process 0 0 0 70 3 4 6 241
The lead and accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts 0 0 0 17 2 3 4 65
The state of macroeconomic forecasting 0 1 3 360 1 5 9 712
The term spread as a cyclical indicator: a forecasting evaluation 0 0 0 78 2 2 9 301
The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation 0 0 0 24 2 2 4 81
Was the deflation of the depression anticipated? An inference using real-time data 0 0 1 7 2 3 4 28
What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts? 0 0 0 28 0 1 3 135
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 34
Wheat from Chaff: Meta-Analysis as Quantitative Literature Review: Comment 0 0 1 71 0 1 3 339
Who Forecasts Better? [Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment] 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 158
Who forecasts better?: Herman O. Stekler, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 5 (1987) 155-158 0 0 0 68 0 0 0 216
Why Do Empirical Results Change? Forecasts as Tests of Rational Expectations 0 0 0 4 1 2 2 14
Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession? 0 0 0 98 1 3 6 336
Why do Forecasters Underestimate? 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 58
Total Journal Articles 5 13 55 4,689 101 207 429 17,986
1 registered items for which data could not be found

Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Fuzziness in Economic Systems, Its Modeling and Control 0 0 0 6 0 1 1 34
Total Chapters 0 0 0 6 0 1 1 34

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