Access Statistics for Herman O. Stekler

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS 0 0 0 111 0 1 18 238
A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts 0 0 2 13 0 1 7 89
A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts 0 1 2 63 1 2 11 110
Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts 0 0 0 51 0 1 14 191
Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? 0 0 0 87 0 0 17 207
Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion 0 0 1 66 0 0 10 161
EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS 0 0 0 43 0 0 5 153
EVALUATING FORECASTS OF A VECTOR OF VARIABLES: A GERMAN FORECASTING COMPETITION 0 0 0 14 0 0 15 83
Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession 0 0 0 100 0 0 17 168
Economic forecasts: evaluation procedures and results 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 299
Evaluating Consensus Forecasts 0 0 0 7 0 0 13 54
Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example 0 0 0 30 2 2 9 108
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition 0 0 0 19 0 0 12 61
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition 0 0 1 64 0 0 10 92
Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game 1 1 1 66 6 6 15 215
Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread 0 0 0 19 1 1 10 93
Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts 0 0 0 45 0 0 9 83
Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts 0 0 0 7 1 1 9 53
Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates 0 0 0 37 0 2 14 139
Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press 0 0 0 69 0 0 15 108
HOW DID THE FOMC VIEW THE GREAT RECESSION AS IT WAS HAPPENING?: EVALUATING THE MINUTES FROM FOMC MEETINGS, 2006-2010 0 0 0 30 0 0 15 78
Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved? 0 0 0 61 1 1 7 189
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved? 0 0 0 14 3 6 35 114
Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence 0 0 0 79 1 1 6 137
Issues in Sports Forecasting 0 0 0 119 1 4 16 365
Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule 0 0 0 21 0 0 8 95
Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation 0 0 0 58 0 0 8 206
Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions 0 0 0 21 1 1 9 129
Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector 0 0 0 140 0 0 19 742
Nowcasting German Turning Points Using CUSUM Analysis 0 0 0 8 0 0 7 34
Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts 0 0 0 107 1 2 9 230
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set 0 0 0 5 1 1 11 40
Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set 0 0 0 58 0 0 8 75
Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games 0 0 0 37 1 1 17 151
Some problems in forecasting inventory investment 0 0 0 1 0 0 14 606
Sports Forecasting 0 0 0 66 2 10 28 479
The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession 0 0 0 28 1 1 10 93
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS? 0 0 0 20 0 0 13 76
Was the Deflation of the Depression Anticipated? An Inference Using Real-time Data 0 0 0 29 1 3 18 54
What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts? 0 0 0 69 1 2 16 122
What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts? 0 0 0 8 3 3 12 84
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk 0 0 0 7 2 4 13 38
Total Working Papers 1 2 7 1,897 31 57 533 6,842

Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Simulation of the Forecasting Performance of the Diffusion Index 0 0 0 8 1 1 7 38
A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts 0 0 0 66 0 0 16 203
A regional forecasting model for construction activity 0 0 0 32 1 1 7 91
A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts 0 0 0 8 0 1 11 63
An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts 0 0 0 36 0 2 8 137
An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts: A Polite Reply 0 0 0 21 1 2 11 126
An Analysis of the 1968-69 Economic Forecasts 0 0 0 10 0 0 4 72
An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Comment 0 0 0 7 0 0 8 48
An Evaluation of Quarterly Judgmental Economic Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 0 9 43
An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts 0 0 0 23 0 0 10 69
An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach 0 0 0 119 1 3 15 355
An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve 0 0 0 94 0 1 11 307
Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test 0 0 0 43 0 1 5 99
Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation 1 1 6 261 4 8 31 518
Book review 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 28
Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting: James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, (eds.), 1994, National Bureau of Economic Research, studies in business cycles, vol. 28, (University of Chicago pres 0 0 0 80 0 0 6 212
Can the Fed predict the state of the economy? 1 1 1 92 1 1 16 229
Combining the Results of rationality Studies: What Did We know and When Did We know It? 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 232
Comparative performance of U.S. econometric models: Lawrence R. Klein, (ed.), (Oxford University Press, New York, 1991) pp. 325, $45.00 0 0 0 28 0 1 4 89
DO POLLS OR MARKETS FORECAST BETTER? EVIDENCE FROM THE 2010 US SENATE ELECTIONS 0 0 1 15 2 3 6 58
Data revisions and forecasting 0 0 0 15 0 0 5 82
Data revisions in the U.S. international transactions statistics 0 0 0 5 0 0 11 56
Dating turning points in the business cycle: Michael D. Boldin, Journal of business, 67, 97-131 0 0 0 76 0 1 4 252
Dealer-Manufacturer Relationship in the Automobile Industry: Comment 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 12
Diagnosing unemployment: Edmond Malinvaud, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1994), pp. 156, $34.95, ISBN 0-521-44533-7 0 0 0 14 0 2 4 108
Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts 0 0 0 38 0 2 5 108
Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions 0 0 1 63 1 1 16 181
Do consensus forecasts exist? 0 0 0 31 0 1 8 86
Econometrics and structural change: Lyle D. Broemeling and Hiroki Tsurumi, (Marcel Dekker, New York, 1987) pp. 266, $59.75 0 0 0 49 0 1 6 185
Economic forecasting and contracyclical stabilization policy 0 0 0 9 0 0 6 48
Employment impact of public construction 0 0 0 28 0 0 1 74
Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game 0 0 0 65 0 1 11 289
Evaluating Predictions of Change 1 2 8 114 1 6 22 289
Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread 0 0 0 7 0 0 12 52
Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts 0 0 0 16 0 1 12 74
Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts 0 0 0 29 1 1 7 81
Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example 0 0 0 11 1 1 10 59
Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010 1 1 1 54 1 1 20 173
Evaluation of Econometric Inventory Forecasts 0 0 0 14 0 0 5 94
Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates 0 0 0 25 0 0 23 113
Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press 0 0 0 20 0 2 10 116
Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context 0 0 0 13 0 1 9 60
Forecasting Industrial Production--Leading Series versus Autoregression 0 0 1 34 0 1 8 116
Forecasting elections: Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 1992, (CQ Press, Washington, DC), 163 pp., paperback $18.95, ISBN 0-8718 7-600-0 0 0 0 95 0 0 5 415
Forecasting industrial bottlenecks: An analysis of alternative approaches 0 0 0 14 0 2 6 85
Forecasting methods for management: Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright, Fifth Edition (Wiley, New York, 1989), pp. 470, $52.95 (hard), $27.15, [UK pound]15.95 (soft) 0 0 2 288 0 0 9 1,181
Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession 0 0 0 11 0 1 4 53
Forecasting the GNP Price Deflator 0 0 0 18 0 0 5 137
Forecasts of a regional construction model: An evaluation 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 30
Forecasts of construction activity for states 0 0 0 4 0 0 2 35
Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved? 0 0 0 17 2 3 23 90
Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved? 0 0 0 2 0 1 12 15
Improving our ability to predict the unusual event 0 0 0 33 1 1 9 387
Information Problems for Policy Analysis and Forecasting 0 0 0 69 0 1 5 441
Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence 0 0 0 22 0 1 16 102
Interpreting and evaluating CESIfo's World Economic Survey directional forecasts 0 0 0 22 0 0 13 90
Interpreting the Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession 0 0 0 15 0 0 9 78
Introduction 0 0 0 4 0 1 6 35
Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting" 0 0 1 42 0 0 7 127
Irrational Exuberance: Robert Shiller, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2000. Hardcover, 296 pages, ISBN 0-691-05062-7, $27.95 0 2 9 153 0 5 25 469
Is there a consensus among financial forecasters? 0 0 0 27 1 1 7 96
Issues in sports forecasting 0 1 3 136 3 9 26 644
Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation 0 0 0 20 0 2 13 110
Kiplinger's looking ahead: 70 years of forecasts from the Kiplinger Washington letter: 1993, (Kiplinger Books, Washington, DC) $29.95, ISBN 0-938721-31-3 0 0 0 6 1 1 1 148
Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques 0 0 0 179 0 0 9 438
Market and survey forecasts of the three-month treasury bill rate: R.W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein and S. Scott MacDonald, Journal of Business (1991) forthcoming 0 0 0 15 0 1 9 148
Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions 0 0 0 45 1 2 13 345
Measuring the Onset of the Great Depression: Then and Now 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1,011
Methodological issues in forecasting: Insights from the egregious business forecast errors of late 1930 0 0 0 65 0 2 10 303
Modeling fully employed economies 0 0 0 3 0 1 2 42
Modeling high levels of defense expenditures: A Vietnam 0 0 0 5 0 0 3 31
Nowcasting: Identifying German Cyclical Turning Points 0 0 0 15 0 0 8 50
Optimal Stabilization Policies for Deterministic and Stochastic Linear Systems: Comments 0 0 1 8 0 0 7 49
Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games 0 0 0 49 1 1 5 223
Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games 1 1 5 246 5 5 25 595
Ray C. Fair, Estimating How the Economy Works, Harvard University Press, Cambridge MA, USA (2004) ISBN 0674-01546-0 295 pp., $65 0 0 0 15 0 0 3 100
Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting' 0 0 0 17 0 2 18 164
Significance tests harm progress in forecasting: Comment 0 0 0 19 0 0 4 70
Sources of turning point forecast errors 0 0 0 21 1 2 6 94
Sports forecasting 0 0 1 112 2 7 32 461
Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market 0 0 1 122 3 8 18 387
The Federal Budget as a Short-Term Forecasting Tool 0 0 0 9 0 0 3 53
The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results 1 2 4 159 3 6 22 445
The Savings Rate as a Tool of Economic Analysis 0 0 0 6 0 0 6 56
The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games 0 0 1 101 3 6 21 363
The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process 0 0 0 70 0 1 12 249
The lead and accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts 0 0 0 17 0 1 8 70
The state of macroeconomic forecasting 0 0 2 361 2 2 20 727
The term spread as a cyclical indicator: a forecasting evaluation 0 0 0 78 1 1 7 306
The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation 0 0 0 24 0 0 8 87
Was the deflation of the depression anticipated? An inference using real-time data 0 0 0 7 0 0 12 37
What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts? 0 0 0 28 0 3 26 160
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk 0 0 0 3 0 1 5 39
Wheat from Chaff: Meta-Analysis as Quantitative Literature Review: Comment 0 0 0 71 0 0 1 339
Who Forecasts Better? [Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment] 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 160
Who forecasts better?: Herman O. Stekler, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 5 (1987) 155-158 0 0 0 68 1 1 5 221
Why Do Empirical Results Change? Forecasts as Tests of Rational Expectations 0 0 0 4 0 0 3 15
Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession? 0 0 0 98 0 0 7 338
Why do Forecasters Underestimate? 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 63
Total Journal Articles 6 11 49 4,723 48 134 966 18,732
1 registered items for which data could not be found

Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Fuzziness in Economic Systems, Its Modeling and Control 0 0 0 6 0 1 5 38
Total Chapters 0 0 0 6 0 1 5 38

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Statistics updated 2026-09-10