| Working Paper |
File Downloads |
Abstract Views |
| Last month |
3 months |
12 months |
Total |
Last month |
3 months |
12 months |
Total |
| (UBS Pensions Series 2) International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Investment Opportunities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
35 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
119 |
| (UBS Pensions Series 3) Performance Clustering and Incentives in the UK Pension Fund Industry |
0 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
139 |
| (UBS Pensions Series 4) Returns from Active Management in International Equity Markets; Evidence from a Panel of UK Pension Funds |
0 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
144 |
| A Generalisation of the Non-Parametric Henriksson-Merton Test of Market Timing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
15 |
1,860 |
| A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns |
0 |
0 |
0 |
625 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
1,170 |
| A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns' |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
1,174 |
| A SIMPLE NON-PARAMETRIC TEST OF PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
2,260 |
| A SIMPLE, NON-PARAMETRIC TEST OF PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
13 |
23 |
1,944 |
| Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss? |
0 |
0 |
0 |
266 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
724 |
| Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data |
0 |
0 |
2 |
54 |
11 |
13 |
24 |
75 |
| Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
576 |
| Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
155 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
421 |
| Can mutual fund stars really pick stocks? New evidence from a bootstrap analysis |
1 |
2 |
4 |
133 |
11 |
17 |
24 |
509 |
| Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation |
1 |
1 |
1 |
241 |
11 |
16 |
18 |
876 |
| Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average? |
0 |
0 |
0 |
90 |
3 |
11 |
14 |
258 |
| Common Factors in Latin America?s Business Cycles |
0 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
174 |
| Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns |
1 |
1 |
1 |
217 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
782 |
| Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calendar Effects in Stock Returns |
0 |
0 |
0 |
37 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
128 |
| Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap |
0 |
1 |
2 |
341 |
2 |
7 |
14 |
1,096 |
| Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap |
0 |
1 |
4 |
1,033 |
8 |
17 |
34 |
2,739 |
| Decentralized Investment Management: Evidence from the Pension Fund Industry |
0 |
0 |
0 |
52 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
216 |
| Decentralized investment management: evidence from the pension fund industry |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
7 |
10 |
14 |
157 |
| Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations |
0 |
0 |
1 |
139 |
8 |
13 |
16 |
409 |
| Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
99 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
344 |
| Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
231 |
| Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets |
0 |
0 |
3 |
702 |
4 |
10 |
19 |
1,913 |
| Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets |
0 |
0 |
2 |
371 |
4 |
9 |
13 |
1,021 |
| Economic Forecasting |
0 |
0 |
3 |
484 |
2 |
11 |
21 |
879 |
| Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock Returns |
0 |
0 |
0 |
132 |
3 |
8 |
8 |
344 |
| Efficient Market Hypothesis and Forecasting |
1 |
2 |
7 |
1,254 |
12 |
17 |
30 |
3,409 |
| Estimating Loss Function Parameters |
0 |
1 |
1 |
281 |
1 |
8 |
11 |
1,233 |
| Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns |
0 |
1 |
2 |
429 |
5 |
7 |
16 |
1,367 |
| Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts |
0 |
0 |
0 |
88 |
3 |
7 |
10 |
292 |
| Forecast Combination with Entry and Exit of Experts |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
6 |
9 |
13 |
393 |
| Forecast Combinations |
2 |
5 |
19 |
502 |
9 |
27 |
67 |
1,139 |
| Forecast Combinations |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1,404 |
4 |
10 |
20 |
3,280 |
| Forecast Combinations |
2 |
5 |
13 |
336 |
14 |
23 |
44 |
822 |
| Forecast Evaluation with Shared Data Sets |
0 |
0 |
0 |
121 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
379 |
| Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds |
0 |
1 |
1 |
47 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
201 |
| Forecasting Stock Returns |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
1,156 |
| Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks |
0 |
0 |
2 |
627 |
9 |
9 |
16 |
1,574 |
| Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
167 |
9 |
14 |
23 |
516 |
| Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks |
0 |
1 |
1 |
170 |
4 |
9 |
12 |
537 |
| Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
201 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
557 |
| Forecasts of US Short-term Interest Rates: A Flexible Forecast Combination Approach |
0 |
0 |
0 |
280 |
8 |
13 |
17 |
764 |
| How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series? |
0 |
0 |
1 |
278 |
5 |
8 |
10 |
601 |
| How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series? |
0 |
0 |
0 |
224 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
488 |
| How Stable are Financial Prediction Models? Evidence from US and International Stock Market Data |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
63 |
| Implied Learning Paths from Option Prices |
0 |
0 |
0 |
139 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
299 |
| International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Investment Opportunities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
187 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
479 |
| Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts |
0 |
0 |
0 |
147 |
0 |
6 |
7 |
381 |
| Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
61 |
6 |
7 |
11 |
335 |
| Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
138 |
1 |
4 |
14 |
715 |
| Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
55 |
6 |
13 |
13 |
258 |
| Learning, structural instability and present value calculations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
31 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
274 |
| Learning, structural instability and present value calculations |
0 |
0 |
1 |
146 |
5 |
8 |
13 |
532 |
| Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability |
0 |
0 |
1 |
509 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
1,217 |
| Model Instability and Choice of Observation Window |
0 |
0 |
1 |
27 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
131 |
| Moments of Markov Switching Models |
0 |
0 |
0 |
552 |
8 |
9 |
13 |
1,131 |
| Optimal Forecast Combination Under General Loss Functions and Forecast Error Distributions |
0 |
0 |
1 |
27 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
218 |
| Optimal Forecast Combination Under Regime Switching |
0 |
0 |
0 |
163 |
1 |
5 |
10 |
343 |
| Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
326 |
2 |
7 |
8 |
920 |
| Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
355 |
2 |
7 |
7 |
963 |
| Option prices and implied volatility dynamics under Bayesian learning |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
667 |
| Performance Measurement and Evaluation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
108 |
1 |
7 |
9 |
314 |
| Performance Measurement using Multiple Asset Class Portfolio Data |
0 |
0 |
1 |
299 |
5 |
6 |
10 |
1,239 |
| Properties of Optimal Forecasts |
0 |
0 |
0 |
287 |
7 |
10 |
11 |
659 |
| Properties of Optimal Forecasts |
0 |
0 |
0 |
184 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
718 |
| Real Time Econometrics |
0 |
0 |
0 |
211 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
588 |
| Real Time Econometrics |
0 |
0 |
0 |
368 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
779 |
| Real Time Econometrics |
0 |
0 |
0 |
90 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
320 |
| Real Time Econometrics |
0 |
0 |
0 |
82 |
3 |
7 |
9 |
295 |
| Regime Changes and Financial Markets |
1 |
2 |
6 |
213 |
22 |
43 |
79 |
547 |
| Regime Changes and Financial Markets |
1 |
1 |
10 |
81 |
12 |
16 |
46 |
333 |
| Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium |
0 |
0 |
0 |
53 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
363 |
| Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium |
0 |
0 |
0 |
97 |
4 |
7 |
7 |
660 |
| Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium |
0 |
0 |
0 |
91 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
460 |
| Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium |
0 |
0 |
0 |
108 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
546 |
| Return Predictability under Equilibrium Constraints on the Equity Premium |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
6 |
7 |
11 |
162 |
| Risky Arbitrage Strategies: Optimal Portfolio Choice and Economic Implications |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
375 |
| Small Sample Properties of Forecasts From Autoregressive Models Under Structural Breaks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
111 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
458 |
| Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
244 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
780 |
| Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
178 |
6 |
11 |
14 |
561 |
| Strategic Asset Allocation and Consumption Decisions under Multivariate Regime Switching |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
4 |
9 |
11 |
796 |
| Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices |
0 |
0 |
1 |
187 |
2 |
7 |
9 |
462 |
| Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
58 |
| THE STATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PREDICTABILITY OF EXCESS RETURNS ON COMMON STOCKS |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
665 |
| THE STATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PREDICTABILITY OF EXESS RETURNS ON COMMON STOCKS |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
552 |
| Term Structure of Risk Under Alternative Econometric Specifications |
0 |
0 |
0 |
114 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
348 |
| Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multi-category Variables |
0 |
0 |
0 |
191 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
768 |
| Testing Dependence among Serially Correlated Multi-Category Variables |
0 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
6 |
10 |
14 |
324 |
| Testing Dependence among Serially Correlated Multi-category Variables |
0 |
0 |
0 |
52 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
261 |
| The Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calendar Effects in Stock Returns |
0 |
0 |
0 |
237 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
759 |
| The Forecasing time series subject to multiple structure breaks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
8 |
278 |
| The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis |
0 |
0 |
0 |
140 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
674 |
| The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
149 |
| The Resolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Survey Forecast |
0 |
0 |
0 |
117 |
4 |
7 |
7 |
346 |
| The Use of Recursive Model Selection Strategies in Forecasting Stock Returns |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
726 |
| The performance of European equity mutual funds |
0 |
0 |
0 |
31 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
180 |
| Understanding Analysts' Earnings Expectations: Biases, Nonlinearities and Predictability |
0 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
2 |
6 |
7 |
176 |
| Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems |
0 |
0 |
0 |
62 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
214 |
| Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems |
0 |
0 |
0 |
95 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
252 |
| Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems |
0 |
0 |
0 |
101 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
202 |
| Total Working Papers |
10 |
25 |
94 |
19,134 |
433 |
791 |
1,229 |
68,663 |
| Journal Article |
File Downloads |
Abstract Views |
| Last month |
3 months |
12 months |
Total |
Last month |
3 months |
12 months |
Total |
| A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns |
0 |
0 |
0 |
373 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
882 |
| A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
18 |
29 |
2,766 |
| A generalization of the non-parametric Henriksson-Merton test of market timing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
595 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
1,403 |
| An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts |
0 |
0 |
0 |
84 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
271 |
| An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns |
0 |
0 |
0 |
371 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
889 |
| Annals issue on forecasting--Guest editors' introduction |
0 |
0 |
0 |
21 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
81 |
| Asset Allocation Dynamics and Pension Fund Performance |
1 |
2 |
8 |
742 |
5 |
10 |
27 |
2,709 |
| Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching |
0 |
4 |
18 |
500 |
10 |
35 |
84 |
1,160 |
| Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss? |
0 |
0 |
3 |
160 |
4 |
6 |
16 |
484 |
| Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities |
0 |
0 |
2 |
163 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
496 |
| Can Agents Learn to Form Rational Expectations? Some Results on Convergence and Stability of Learning in the UK Stock Market |
0 |
0 |
0 |
59 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
172 |
| Can Mutual Fund “Stars” Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis |
1 |
4 |
7 |
346 |
8 |
17 |
42 |
1,088 |
| Cointegration Tests of Present Value Models with a Time-Varying Discount Factor |
0 |
0 |
0 |
251 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
851 |
| Common factors in Latin America's business cycles |
0 |
1 |
1 |
88 |
0 |
9 |
14 |
321 |
| Completion time structures of stock price movements |
0 |
0 |
0 |
35 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
197 |
| Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns |
1 |
3 |
7 |
1,175 |
6 |
12 |
37 |
2,985 |
| Data mining with local model specification uncertainty: a discussion of Hoover and Perez |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
486 |
| Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
179 |
12 |
19 |
31 |
614 |
| Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets |
0 |
0 |
4 |
240 |
8 |
12 |
24 |
585 |
| Economic Forecasting |
1 |
1 |
6 |
214 |
5 |
8 |
28 |
1,078 |
| Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns |
0 |
0 |
0 |
343 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
721 |
| Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting |
0 |
1 |
8 |
415 |
7 |
14 |
48 |
1,140 |
| Elusive return predictability |
0 |
1 |
1 |
156 |
5 |
7 |
10 |
394 |
| Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts |
0 |
0 |
1 |
70 |
27 |
32 |
35 |
260 |
| Forecast evaluation with shared data sets |
0 |
0 |
0 |
71 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
199 |
| Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach |
0 |
1 |
2 |
243 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
637 |
| How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series? |
0 |
0 |
0 |
97 |
9 |
13 |
16 |
338 |
| Instability of return prediction models |
1 |
2 |
5 |
210 |
6 |
12 |
19 |
491 |
| International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Investment Opportunities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
95 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
364 |
| International asset allocation under regime switching, skew, and kurtosis preferences |
0 |
1 |
1 |
222 |
7 |
14 |
18 |
605 |
| Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
52 |
3 |
7 |
11 |
291 |
| Market timing and return prediction under model instability |
0 |
1 |
5 |
302 |
7 |
12 |
28 |
773 |
| Moments of Markov switching models |
1 |
2 |
3 |
494 |
4 |
11 |
17 |
1,003 |
| Monotonicity in asset returns: New tests with applications to the term structure, the CAPM, and portfolio sorts |
0 |
1 |
5 |
318 |
6 |
11 |
18 |
1,179 |
| OPTIMAL FORECAST COMBINATION UNDER REGIME SWITCHING * |
0 |
0 |
0 |
106 |
0 |
4 |
7 |
332 |
| On the optimality of adaptive expectations: Muth revisited |
0 |
0 |
1 |
88 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
216 |
| Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions |
0 |
1 |
1 |
185 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
574 |
| Optimal properties of exponentially weighted forecasts in the presence of different information sources |
0 |
0 |
0 |
101 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
267 |
| Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities |
0 |
0 |
2 |
313 |
6 |
8 |
13 |
672 |
| Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies |
1 |
1 |
3 |
374 |
5 |
15 |
30 |
893 |
| Predictability of Output Growth and Inflation: A Multi-Horizon Survey Approach |
0 |
0 |
0 |
37 |
0 |
5 |
8 |
160 |
| Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance |
0 |
1 |
11 |
1,080 |
4 |
11 |
30 |
2,061 |
| Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks |
0 |
0 |
1 |
178 |
2 |
7 |
15 |
530 |
| Present value models with feedback: Solutions, stability, bubbles, and some empirical evidence |
0 |
0 |
0 |
55 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
196 |
| Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes |
0 |
0 |
1 |
117 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
282 |
| Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity |
0 |
0 |
3 |
121 |
2 |
4 |
12 |
303 |
| REAL-TIME ECONOMETRICS |
0 |
0 |
0 |
61 |
2 |
6 |
7 |
187 |
| Recursive Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamics in UK Stock Returns |
0 |
0 |
0 |
85 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
238 |
| Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium |
0 |
0 |
0 |
52 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
333 |
| Reply to the discussion of Elusive Return Predictability |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
81 |
| Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks |
3 |
3 |
7 |
561 |
3 |
6 |
19 |
1,158 |
| Size and Value Anomalies under Regime Shifts |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
2 |
3 |
11 |
256 |
| Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks |
1 |
1 |
5 |
141 |
6 |
13 |
21 |
501 |
| Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information, and Stock Prices |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
342 |
| Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications |
0 |
0 |
0 |
159 |
2 |
7 |
9 |
374 |
| Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multicategory Variables |
1 |
1 |
1 |
114 |
11 |
16 |
20 |
310 |
| Testing Forecast Optimality Under Unknown Loss |
0 |
0 |
1 |
77 |
3 |
7 |
9 |
224 |
| The hazards of mutual fund underperformance: A Cox regression analysis |
0 |
1 |
1 |
133 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
492 |
| Understanding Analysts' Earnings Expectations: Biases, Nonlinearities, and Predictability |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
100 |
| Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems |
0 |
0 |
3 |
119 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
345 |
| Why do dividend yields forecast stock returns? |
0 |
0 |
0 |
84 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
192 |
| Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion |
0 |
1 |
9 |
220 |
6 |
11 |
40 |
619 |
| Total Journal Articles |
12 |
35 |
137 |
13,382 |
261 |
498 |
966 |
40,151 |
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