Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 1 1 1 252 1 4 8 728
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 1 2 6 1,694
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 2 3 1,468 1 5 18 4,213
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 0 3 16 1,523 2 8 47 3,165
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 0 0 7 1,661
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 0 0 1 481
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 612
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 2 5 14 1,455
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 0 30 1 1 4 68
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 2 39 1 1 5 95
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 0 25 0 1 4 76
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 103
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 1 4 110 1 3 7 125
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 2 2 3 309 2 2 9 696
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 1 1 3 509 1 1 9 2,671
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 4 6 24 2,513 7 18 104 4,828
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 0 0 0 1,532
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 1 2 6 2,351 2 3 24 5,382
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 1 223 4 6 7 697
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 273
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 2 7 1 2 5 60
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 1 1 3 50
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 3 8 183 12 16 36 469
Diffusion Indexes 1 5 27 1,449 4 14 61 2,992
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 0 1 10 389 4 9 47 1,206
Dynamic Factor Models 2 4 9 120 6 12 25 295
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 0 0 0 1,195
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 0 1 3 683
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 167 0 0 0 665
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 1 2 255 0 2 3 583
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 1 1 3 849 4 5 12 2,057
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 4 6 15 622
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 0 2 22 487 7 17 61 1,189
Forecasting Inflation 0 1 8 3,390 1 5 19 7,775
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 0 0 906 0 3 5 2,087
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 1 1 1 1,889 1 1 9 4,670
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 0 19 1 1 2 85
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 0 1,033 0 2 8 4,358
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 2 1,063 0 0 6 4,313
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 1 1 6 108 1 2 14 214
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 1 1 6 1,626 5 11 38 4,044
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 0 0 1 335
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 0 0 0 732
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 0 0 5 85
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 2 116 1 1 10 157
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 0 0 2 172
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 1 3 7 681 1 5 14 1,834
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 1 97 0 0 2 477
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 242
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 1 2 29
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 1 58 0 0 4 123
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 0 0 2 89
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 1 95 0 0 3 412
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 2 416 2 6 23 975
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 0 2 211 1 4 11 1,981
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 0 0 5 2,553
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 0 0 2 961 4 11 29 2,420
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 4 162 0 5 22 301
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 2 58 0 2 13 121
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 0 0 1 1,134
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 0 246 1 1 6 670
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 1 1 1 560
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 2 2 2 252
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 2 3 192 1 4 7 629
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 1 1 7 400
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 1 1 4 88 1 2 18 301
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 4 443 0 5 15 1,014
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 1 2 3 3,082
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 2 935 2 4 7 2,151
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 5 7 20 1,459
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 0 1 5 1,149
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 244
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 0 0 1 745
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 218
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 343
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 2 2 3 132
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 1 68 1 1 4 146
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 0 1 7 1 1 4 26
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 1 1 1 30
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 0 0 65 0 1 2 111
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 1,572
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 675
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 0 754 0 0 0 2,284
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 565
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 1 812 2 4 15 1,976
Total Working Papers 19 45 209 34,958 113 250 931 105,408


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 14 1,726 5 11 53 4,187
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 1 2 12 417 6 24 112 1,204
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 1 320 1 1 3 775
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 0 0 469 0 1 3 1,225
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 4 4 10 995 8 11 27 2,568
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 0 0 2 564 0 1 8 1,068
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 0 0 1 155
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 0 0 3 1,036
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 0 1 1 1,005
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 0 0 1 284 0 1 15 877
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 12
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 117
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 0 1 5 806
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 1 1 3 43 3 3 17 196
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 0 5 17 151 3 17 73 558
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 1 3 17 159 10 21 81 647
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 1 47 0 0 2 155
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 2 2 4 166
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 104 0 0 0 370
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 1 6 77 1 5 14 283
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 10 12 57 1,102
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 1 1 228 1 2 2 1,037
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 1 2 8 175 4 7 42 2,204
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 1 4 11 1,488 3 13 39 2,888
Forecasting inflation 3 8 32 1,678 6 14 98 4,174
Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices 0 0 0 563 1 1 8 1,490
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 0 0 2 142 2 3 11 514
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 0 3 88
Has the business cycle changed? 0 0 1 687 0 2 6 1,571
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 1 3 173 1 3 14 650
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 1 2 10 1 2 5 45
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 0 1 2 306
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 1 12 55 1 11 86 318
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 1 1 1 68
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 257
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 1 3 19 1,748 9 16 74 4,355
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 1 1 76 0 2 3 281
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 0 0 2 367
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 0 0 1 184 0 0 2 430
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 0 1 2 157
Long†Run Covariability 0 0 0 5 1 1 4 77
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 50
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 112
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 1 1 1 96
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 5 8 48 2,806
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 1 1 2 335 2 2 5 832
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 1 1 1 89
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 1 2 477 0 1 5 1,396
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 1 22 0 0 4 102
Modeling inflation after the crisis 0 1 7 184 2 4 20 761
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 1 1 1 738 4 8 16 2,308
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 0 0 2 57
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 939
On the sources of the Great Moderation - discussion 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 52
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 0 3 8 215 2 9 34 722
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 2 7 167 1 9 65 933
Recent changes in trend and cycle, remarks 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 31
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 1 1 1 45
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 0 0 82 0 0 2 188
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 68
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 2 3 443 13 16 48 1,512
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 7 17 413 3 12 39 1,367
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 280
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 1 5 14 2,487 3 9 47 6,469
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 1 1 1 479 1 2 4 819
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 2 6 28 623 9 26 191 2,104
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 1 2 3 214 2 4 8 585
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 270
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 2 3 4 199
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 1 2 2 604
Testing long-run neutrality 0 0 0 755 2 2 6 1,795
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 2 2 4 154
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 42
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 40 0 0 4 189
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 0 0 3 1,370 21 22 29 5,511
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 1 2 3 1,429
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 40
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 539 0 0 4 1,028
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 3 97 0 1 7 377
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 0 522 1 2 7 1,810
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 0 0 549 0 1 5 1,090
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 1 132 0 0 2 280
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 1 4 837 0 2 6 1,621
Vector Autoregressions 1 7 43 1,804 8 28 173 3,890
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 77
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 0 1 18 0 0 4 46
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 4 9 51 3,106
Total Journal Articles 21 78 326 28,895 173 383 1,742 88,254


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 554
Total Books 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 554


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 2 198 0 8 21 453
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 10 256 4 7 45 786
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 1 3 18 2,963 7 14 61 6,938
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 0 2 6 2 2 7 20
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 1 2 3 36 1 2 3 76
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 35
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 0 0 1 71
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 6 18 106 752 20 54 293 1,973
Forecasting with Many Predictors 2 3 9 789 3 5 25 1,970
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 2 438 2 12 34 1,172
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 1 1 3 200 2 3 13 818
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 0 1 4 240
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 1 2 8 1,387 9 12 52 3,084
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 2 287 3 7 32 1,029
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 0 1 498 2 3 10 1,037
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 2 2 4 856 4 5 13 1,809
Total Chapters 14 31 170 8,791 59 135 614 21,511


Statistics updated 2025-03-03