Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 3 11 18 1,712
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 252 1 7 9 737
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 1 1 3 1,471 1 9 19 4,232
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 1 1 11 1,534 3 10 30 3,195
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 0 0 5 1,666
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 0 2 6 487
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 617
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 2 17 30 1,485
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 26 1 7 19 95
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 31 0 10 20 88
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 1 1 3 42 2 8 22 117
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 108
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 0 2 112 3 11 20 145
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 1 310 2 8 15 711
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 0 0 1 510 1 32 36 2,707
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 0 3 12 2,525 8 48 101 4,929
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 2 12 18 1,550
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 0 1 5 2,356 1 24 38 5,420
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 1 224 2 8 14 711
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 9 29 34 307
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 0 7 3 6 13 73
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 3 5 6 56
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 1 6 189 5 9 24 493
Diffusion Indexes 0 2 4 1,453 1 18 38 3,030
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 2 3 15 404 10 20 67 1,273
Dynamic Factor Models 2 3 7 127 8 16 36 331
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 1 6 7 1,202
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 0 4 8 691
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 167 2 15 17 682
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 0 255 0 5 8 591
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 1 5 6 341
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 1 850 1 14 17 2,074
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 2 8 14 636
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 2 6 14 501 4 25 65 1,254
Forecasting Inflation 0 0 3 3,393 1 10 18 7,793
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 0 2 908 4 9 20 2,107
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 1 1,890 0 2 9 4,679
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 3 4 7 1,040 3 15 29 4,387
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 1 2 5 24 4 15 30 115
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 0 1,063 0 10 14 4,327
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 1 1 109 4 9 15 229
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 1 2 11 1,637 6 16 47 4,091
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 2 5 7 342
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 2 6 12 744
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 1 5 9 94
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 0 116 4 11 20 177
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 1 6 12 184
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 0 0 2 683 2 5 12 1,846
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 0 97 0 67 71 548
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 249
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 4 6 35
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 1 6 7 130
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 95 3 11 16 428
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 0 5 7 96
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 0 416 1 6 13 988
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 0 1 212 0 11 20 2,001
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 0 8 14 2,567
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 0 0 2 963 5 20 38 2,458
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 1 1 163 10 32 37 338
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 1 2 60 6 38 50 171
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 1 4 7 1,141
Recovering from COVID 0 1 21 21 0 10 41 41
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 0 246 0 7 12 682
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 1 4 6 566
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 1 7 8 260
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 1 1 193 0 7 16 645
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 3 11 18 418
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 0 0 1 89 3 15 20 321
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 3 446 3 9 17 1,031
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 0 2 4 3,086
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 1 2 937 2 12 18 2,169
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 1 11 24 1,483
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 1 9 13 1,162
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 1 9 12 256
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 0 6 9 754
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 221
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 1 6 9 352
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 1 6 9 155
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 0 6 11 143
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 1 2 9 0 2 5 31
The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change: Compositional Accounting and Forecasting 0 0 40 40 2 8 28 28
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 0 7 8 38
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 0 1 66 3 9 13 124
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 0 1 5 1,577
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 1 5 11 686
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 755 1 4 15 2,299
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 2 11 20 585
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 3 815 1 6 17 1,993
Total Working Papers 15 37 201 35,159 173 947 1,709 107,117


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 59
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 2 7 1,733 3 15 43 4,230
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 0 0 8 425 2 27 97 1,301
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 0 320 2 12 16 791
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 0 0 469 1 6 9 1,234
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 0 1 4 999 3 17 32 2,600
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 1 3 3 567 3 13 18 1,086
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 1 5 7 162
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 1 4 11 1,047
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 0 2 6 1,011
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 0 2 4 288 0 18 33 910
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 1 2 14
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 68
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 0 1 3 120
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 11 23 30 836
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 3 46 0 3 16 212
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 3 9 160 6 24 66 624
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 0 0 6 165 3 12 50 697
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 0 47 1 5 8 163
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 0 11 18 184
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 104 0 5 9 379
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 0 77 1 5 10 293
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 6 27 48 1,150
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 0 228 3 8 10 1,047
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 0 6 181 3 13 46 2,250
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 1 7 14 1,502 33 107 154 3,042
Forecasting inflation 2 8 22 1,700 7 32 94 4,268
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 0 0 3 145 0 13 29 543
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 4 4 92
Has the business cycle changed? 0 0 1 688 0 6 15 1,586
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 6 12 28 201 18 45 79 729
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 0 10 1 6 13 58
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 2 6 11 317
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 1 2 11 66 8 22 70 388
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 0 0 3 71
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 1 4 10 267
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 0 2 8 1,756 4 21 66 4,421
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 0 76 1 3 6 287
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 0 3 6 373
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 0 0 1 185 0 7 10 440
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 67
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 0 2 4 161
Long†Run Covariability 0 0 1 6 1 4 10 87
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 0 4 5 55
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 1 4 12 124
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 0 2 2 98
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 12 28 72 2,878
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 1 1 1 336 1 8 17 849
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 0 2 2 91
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 1 1 1 478 2 5 10 1,406
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 0 22 1 4 12 114
Modeling inflation after the crisis 1 1 4 188 7 17 25 786
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 1 1 4 742 6 12 31 2,339
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 1 3 3 60
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 1 17 24 963
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 0 0 5 220 1 8 21 743
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 1 2 3 170 3 23 37 970
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 0 3 3 48
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 1 1 83 2 6 10 198
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 5 9 11 79
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 1 444 4 12 23 1,535
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 4 6 12 425 12 31 76 1,443
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 284
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 8 2,495 6 19 68 6,537
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 1 480 2 8 10 829
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 1 6 19 642 9 26 105 2,209
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 0 0 214 0 3 8 593
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 0 5 6 276
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 1 5 9 208
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 3 5 6 610
Testing long-run neutrality 0 1 3 758 3 15 20 1,815
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 0 1 2 156
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 1 10 1 14 15 57
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 1 4 44 1 11 17 206
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 0 0 1 1,371 3 8 19 5,530
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 0 2 8 1,437
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 41
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 1 540 2 4 19 1,047
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 1 1 1 98 6 8 21 398
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 523 4 9 15 1,825
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 0 3 552 0 5 17 1,107
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 0 132 0 4 6 286
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 0 837 2 4 7 1,628
Vector Autoregressions 5 12 35 1,839 40 162 249 4,139
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 79
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 0 1 19 0 6 7 53
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 7 26 81 3,187
Total Journal Articles 28 76 250 28,559 276 1,096 2,300 88,981
3 registered items for which data could not be found


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 5 9 13 567
Total Books 0 0 0 0 5 9 13 567


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 4 202 1 6 16 469
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 2 258 2 12 37 823
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 1 2 15 2,978 13 31 72 7,010
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 0 1 7 1 7 9 29
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 1 1 6 42 2 8 18 94
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 1 2 5 40
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 7
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 0 4 6 77
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 4 8 39 791 20 58 165 2,138
Forecasting with Many Predictors 0 0 0 789 3 21 32 2,002
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 1 3 441 6 21 38 1,210
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 1 201 9 21 36 854
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 0 4 8 248
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 0 1 2 1,389 6 24 62 3,146
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 1 288 2 11 23 1,052
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 0 2 500 0 4 11 1,048
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 1 6 862 0 15 32 1,841
Total Chapters 6 14 82 8,873 66 253 577 22,088


Statistics updated 2026-03-04