Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 2 5 24 1,718
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 252 2 6 18 746
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 1 1,471 2 8 25 4,243
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 1 2 6 1,537 2 9 32 3,209
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 1 4 9 1,671
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 1 3 7 490
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 619
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 2 10 35 1,495
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 2 42 0 3 23 122
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 0 26 0 2 19 97
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 0 31 0 2 18 90
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 2 7 12 116
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 0 0 112 0 3 25 152
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 0 310 1 5 19 717
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 0 0 0 510 0 8 43 2,715
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 1 4 10 2,530 6 27 128 4,975
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 1 7 31 1,564
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 0 1 6 2,357 2 18 55 5,440
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 0 224 1 5 17 716
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 0 2 44 317
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 0 7 0 1 13 74
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 0 2 8 58
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 0 0 5 190 1 1 22 496
Diffusion Indexes 0 0 4 1,454 0 4 41 3,039
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 0 2 9 406 2 9 61 1,287
Dynamic Factor Models 0 3 8 130 0 7 39 340
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 0 3 11 1,206
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 0 1 8 692
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 1 1 1 168 1 4 22 687
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 0 255 0 1 9 592
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 343
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 1 850 1 10 28 2,085
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 0 13 28 651
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 2 4 15 506 5 16 64 1,275
Forecasting Inflation 1 1 3 3,395 1 12 28 7,806
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 0 1 908 0 10 27 2,118
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 0 1,890 3 13 21 4,694
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 4 24 1 8 37 125
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 1 8 1,041 5 11 38 4,399
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 0 1,063 2 7 20 4,335
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 0 1 109 0 4 21 235
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 0 0 7 1,637 1 18 55 4,110
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 0 1 10 345
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 0 5 17 749
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 1 4 12 98
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 0 116 1 5 22 182
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 2 2 14 186
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 0 0 0 683 1 5 16 1,852
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 0 97 0 5 77 554
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 1 5 13 256
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 1 7 36
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 0 3 11 134
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 0 3 11 100
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 1 1 96 1 10 25 438
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 0 416 1 2 11 990
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 0 1 212 3 8 29 2,012
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 2 11 26 2,579
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 2 2 2 965 5 11 45 2,471
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 2 164 5 31 108 410
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 1 2 61 4 21 83 206
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 0 3 11 1,146
Recovering from COVID 0 0 2 21 0 2 26 44
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 1 1 1 247 3 8 20 692
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 0 2 8 569
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 0 1 11 263
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 0 1 193 0 3 17 650
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 1 2 22 423
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 0 0 1 89 1 3 23 324
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 1 2 5 448 3 9 26 1,041
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 1 9 13 3,095
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 1 937 6 16 32 2,185
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 2 8 28 1,491
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 1 3 17 1,167
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 0 4 15 260
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 1 2 12 758
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 222
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 1 10 19 362
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 1 2 11 157
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 0 4 13 147
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 0 1 9 0 3 11 38
The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change: Compositional Accounting and Forecasting 0 0 41 41 0 2 33 33
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 0 5 13 43
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 0 0 66 0 1 12 125
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 3 5 8 1,582
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 0 2 12 689
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 1 1 756 2 6 15 2,305
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 1 5 24 591
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 815 2 11 24 2,005
Total Working Papers 10 27 154 35,194 105 557 2,216 107,864


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 61
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 1 1 6 1,734 9 34 70 4,267
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 4 4 8 429 7 16 103 1,323
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 0 320 0 4 19 795
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 1 1 470 0 3 13 1,238
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 0 0 2 999 2 9 38 2,610
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 0 0 3 567 0 4 20 1,090
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 0 1 8 163
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 1 2 14 1,051
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 1 1 7 1,013
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 0 2 6 290 1 8 41 920
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 2 5 17
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 70
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 0 2 5 122
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 1 3 44 850
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 1 46 1 4 16 216
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 0 1 8 162 5 12 61 640
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 0 0 4 165 4 9 39 707
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 0 47 1 2 10 165
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 0 4 22 188
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 1 105 0 1 12 382
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 0 77 0 5 14 298
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 7 15 62 1,172
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 0 228 0 5 16 1,053
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 2 6 183 1 20 51 2,273
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 0 3 13 1,505 8 31 176 3,083
Forecasting inflation 2 5 20 1,706 8 33 107 4,309
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 0 1 1 146 2 9 28 552
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 3 8 96
Has the business cycle changed? 0 0 1 688 3 5 19 1,592
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 1 3 30 205 6 20 100 755
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 0 10 0 4 13 62
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 0 1 13 320
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 1 3 12 69 2 15 76 409
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 0 3 6 74
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 0 1 8 268
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 0 2 7 1,759 6 33 84 4,461
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 0 76 0 3 9 292
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 1 2 10 377
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 0 1 1 186 0 3 12 443
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 69
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 0 1 5 163
Long†Run Covariability 0 0 0 6 0 2 10 89
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 0 1 6 57
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 0 3 15 127
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 1 1 3 99
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 5 33 97 2,921
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 0 0 1 336 0 6 20 855
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 0 0 2 91
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 1 478 2 7 19 1,415
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 0 22 1 7 18 123
Modeling inflation after the crisis 0 0 2 188 1 5 27 792
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 0 0 3 743 1 8 30 2,350
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 1 4 9 66
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 0 3 27 968
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 0 0 2 221 2 8 26 756
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 1 4 171 12 20 61 998
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 0 3 6 51
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 0 1 83 0 2 13 201
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 0 0 12 80
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 1 444 0 3 19 1,540
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 1 10 426 2 7 75 1,453
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 285
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 6 2,497 6 20 71 6,560
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 480 2 3 13 833
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 2 3 19 650 24 62 163 2,301
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 0 0 214 2 5 13 600
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 1 4 10 280
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 1 1 10 210
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 0 4 11 615
Testing long-run neutrality 0 0 3 758 0 15 36 1,831
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 0 1 4 158
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 0 10 0 4 19 62
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 1 1 4 45 1 5 23 213
The Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences of Inflation 1 3 4 4 1 8 9 9
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 0 0 0 1,371 0 5 21 5,536
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 0 3 9 1,440
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 4 8 48
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 540 1 3 15 1,054
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 1 98 1 6 25 404
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 523 1 3 16 1,829
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 0 1 552 0 6 21 1,115
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 0 132 0 4 10 290
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 0 837 0 5 13 1,634
Vector Autoregressions 0 4 31 1,849 7 33 266 4,203
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 79
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 0 1 19 0 2 11 57
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 9 22 88 3,213
Total Journal Articles 13 42 227 28,622 162 687 2,766 89,900
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Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 0 2 15 569
Total Books 0 0 0 0 0 2 15 569


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 2 202 0 7 21 477
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 1 1 2 260 4 12 41 839
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 1 2 15 2,980 3 17 90 7,036
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 0 0 7 0 4 11 33
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 0 0 3 42 0 2 16 96
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 0 0 5 41
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 7
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 0 1 6 78
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 1 5 36 799 6 34 174 2,187
Forecasting with Many Predictors 0 2 2 791 4 14 44 2,020
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 3 442 21 53 95 1,275
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 1 1 1 202 2 12 40 867
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 2 4 11 252
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 0 0 3 1,390 1 21 79 3,175
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 1 288 1 8 26 1,064
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 0 1 500 0 1 10 1,050
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 5 862 0 1 31 1,845
Total Chapters 4 11 74 8,890 44 191 705 22,342


Statistics updated 2026-07-10