Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 0 4 22 1,716
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 252 1 7 16 744
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 1 1,471 2 9 23 4,241
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 0 2 7 1,536 4 12 33 3,207
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 0 4 8 1,670
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 0 2 7 489
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 618
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 1 8 36 1,493
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 2 42 1 5 24 122
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 0 26 2 2 19 97
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 0 31 0 2 18 90
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 1 6 11 114
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 0 1 112 1 7 26 152
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 0 310 0 5 18 716
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 0 0 0 510 2 8 43 2,715
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 1 4 11 2,529 5 40 127 4,969
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 1 13 30 1,563
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 0 1 6 2,357 6 18 53 5,438
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 0 224 2 4 16 715
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 1 10 44 317
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 0 7 0 1 14 74
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 0 2 8 58
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 0 1 5 190 0 2 21 495
Diffusion Indexes 0 1 5 1,454 3 9 42 3,039
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 0 2 14 406 2 12 67 1,285
Dynamic Factor Models 1 3 8 130 1 9 39 340
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 0 4 11 1,206
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 0 1 8 692
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 167 1 4 21 686
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 0 255 0 1 9 592
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 343
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 1 850 1 10 27 2,084
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 2 15 28 651
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 1 3 14 504 4 16 67 1,270
Forecasting Inflation 0 1 2 3,394 1 12 27 7,805
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 0 1 908 2 11 27 2,118
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 0 1,890 2 12 18 4,691
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 1 8 1,041 3 7 34 4,394
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 5 24 2 9 37 124
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 0 1,063 1 6 19 4,333
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 0 1 109 1 6 21 235
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 0 0 8 1,637 0 18 56 4,109
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 1 3 10 345
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 0 5 17 749
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 1 3 11 97
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 0 116 1 4 22 181
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 0 0 12 184
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 0 0 0 683 1 5 15 1,851
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 0 97 0 6 77 554
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 1 6 12 255
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 1 7 36
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 0 4 11 134
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 0 4 11 100
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 1 1 1 96 6 9 25 437
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 0 416 0 1 11 989
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 0 1 212 1 8 26 2,009
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 0 10 24 2,577
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 0 0 1 963 0 8 41 2,466
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 1 2 164 9 67 103 405
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 1 2 61 5 31 79 202
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 0 5 11 1,146
Recovering from COVID 0 0 20 21 0 3 39 44
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 0 246 1 7 17 689
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 0 3 8 569
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 0 3 11 263
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 0 1 193 0 5 18 650
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 0 4 21 422
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 0 0 1 89 1 2 22 323
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 0 8 12 3,094
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 1 1 4 447 1 7 24 1,038
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 1 937 2 10 27 2,179
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 2 6 28 1,489
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 0 4 17 1,166
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 0 4 15 260
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 1 3 11 757
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 222
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 1 9 18 361
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 2 4 13 147
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 0 1 10 156
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 0 1 9 2 7 11 38
The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change: Compositional Accounting and Forecasting 0 1 41 41 0 5 33 33
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 0 5 13 43
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 0 0 66 0 1 12 125
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 1 2 5 1,579
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 689
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 1 1 756 1 4 13 2,303
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 1 5 24 590
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 815 0 10 23 2,003
Total Working Papers 5 25 177 35,184 98 642 2,174 107,759


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 61
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 6 1,733 7 28 62 4,258
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 0 0 4 425 1 15 99 1,316
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 0 320 1 4 19 795
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 1 1 1 470 2 4 13 1,238
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 0 0 2 999 2 8 37 2,608
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 0 0 3 567 1 4 21 1,090
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 0 1 8 163
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 0 3 13 1,050
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 0 1 6 1,012
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 0 2 6 290 1 9 40 919
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 3 5 17
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 70
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 0 2 5 122
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 0 13 43 849
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 2 46 1 3 16 215
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 2 9 162 3 11 60 635
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 0 0 4 165 2 6 39 703
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 0 47 0 1 9 164
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 1 4 22 188
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 1 1 105 0 3 12 382
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 0 77 1 5 14 298
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 0 15 55 1,165
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 0 228 0 6 16 1,053
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 2 2 6 183 4 22 54 2,272
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 2 3 13 1,505 7 33 173 3,075
Forecasting inflation 2 4 19 1,704 5 33 103 4,301
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 1 1 2 146 3 7 31 550
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 4 8 96
Has the business cycle changed? 0 0 1 688 0 3 16 1,589
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 1 3 30 204 7 20 96 749
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 0 10 0 4 15 62
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 0 3 14 320
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 1 2 12 68 7 19 81 407
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 0 3 6 74
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 1 1 9 268
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 1 3 8 1,759 5 34 85 4,455
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 0 76 0 5 9 292
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 0 3 9 376
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 1 1 1 186 2 3 12 443
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 69
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 0 2 5 163
Long†Run Covariability 0 0 1 6 1 2 11 89
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 1 2 7 57
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 0 3 15 127
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 0 0 2 98
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 15 38 98 2,916
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 0 0 1 336 1 6 21 855
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 0 0 2 91
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 1 478 0 7 17 1,413
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 0 22 2 8 17 122
Modeling inflation after the crisis 0 0 2 188 0 5 27 791
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 0 1 3 743 0 10 29 2,349
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 2 5 8 65
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 1 5 28 968
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 0 1 4 221 2 11 26 754
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 1 1 4 171 1 16 52 986
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 0 3 6 51
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 0 1 83 0 3 13 201
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 0 1 12 80
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 1 444 1 5 21 1,540
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 1 1 12 426 2 8 80 1,451
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 285
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 2 6 2,497 2 17 72 6,554
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 1 480 0 2 12 831
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 0 6 19 648 17 68 149 2,277
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 0 0 214 1 5 11 598
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 1 3 9 279
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 0 1 10 209
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 2 5 11 615
Testing long-run neutrality 0 0 3 758 0 16 36 1,831
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 0 2 4 158
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 1 10 0 5 20 62
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 3 44 3 6 22 212
The Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences of Inflation 0 3 3 3 1 8 8 8
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 0 0 0 1,371 0 6 21 5,536
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 2 3 9 1,440
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 1 7 8 48
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 540 0 6 14 1,053
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 1 98 2 5 24 403
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 523 0 3 16 1,828
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 0 1 552 2 8 21 1,115
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 0 132 0 4 10 290
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 0 837 1 6 13 1,634
Vector Autoregressions 2 10 33 1,849 15 57 267 4,196
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 79
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 0 1 19 2 4 11 57
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 4 17 81 3,204
Total Journal Articles 17 50 233 28,609 149 757 2,713 89,738
3 registered items for which data could not be found


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 1 2 15 569
Total Books 0 0 0 0 1 2 15 569


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 2 202 2 8 21 477
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 1 1 259 3 12 37 835
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 0 1 15 2,979 6 23 89 7,033
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 0 0 7 2 4 11 33
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 0 0 4 42 0 2 17 96
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 0 1 6 41
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 7
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 0 1 6 78
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 3 7 41 798 19 43 178 2,181
Forecasting with Many Predictors 1 2 2 791 4 14 40 2,016
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 1 3 442 22 44 77 1,254
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 0 201 1 11 40 865
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 0 2 9 250
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 0 1 3 1,390 6 28 81 3,174
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 1 288 0 11 26 1,063
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 0 2 500 0 2 11 1,050
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 6 862 0 4 34 1,845
Total Chapters 4 13 80 8,886 65 210 688 22,298


Statistics updated 2026-06-04