Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 5 5 9 1,700
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 1 252 0 1 5 729
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 4 1,470 1 3 16 4,221
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 1 1 13 1,533 3 5 32 3,185
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 2 2 4 1,665
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 1 1 3 484
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 613
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 2 3 14 1,464
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 26 1 1 4 79
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 40 1 2 8 102
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 31 1 1 7 73
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 104
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 0 3 112 1 3 10 132
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 3 310 2 2 8 701
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 0 0 2 510 2 2 4 2,674
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 0 0 15 2,521 8 19 71 4,871
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 2 2 4 1,536
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 1 3 6 2,355 3 8 15 5,394
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 1 224 0 0 9 700
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 275
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 0 7 1 1 4 62
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 0 0 1 50
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 0 1 6 186 5 6 31 481
Diffusion Indexes 1 1 8 1,451 7 9 32 3,008
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 1 3 12 400 3 19 55 1,250
Dynamic Factor Models 1 1 8 123 10 13 34 314
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 3 3 6 687
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 0 0 0 1,195
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 167 0 2 2 667
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 1 255 2 2 5 586
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 1 2 850 0 2 9 2,060
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 1 2 10 625
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 1 2 11 494 5 14 59 1,226
Forecasting Inflation 0 0 6 3,393 1 2 13 7,781
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 0 1 907 1 4 11 2,095
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 2 1,890 1 3 12 4,677
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 1 2 1,035 4 5 13 4,369
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 1 2 3 22 1 3 11 95
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 1 1,063 0 1 5 4,317
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 0 2 108 2 2 6 216
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 1 2 9 1,634 9 12 46 4,072
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 0 0 0 335
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 1 1 1 733
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 0 0 6 88
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 0 116 3 5 10 165
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 1 3 4 176
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 0 0 5 683 1 1 8 1,837
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 0 97 2 2 2 479
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 243
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 2 3 31
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 0 0 0 123
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 0 0 1 90
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 1 95 1 1 5 416
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 0 416 1 1 15 981
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 1 1 1 212 2 5 11 1,988
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 0 3 6 2,557
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 0 0 2 963 4 7 29 2,437
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 0 162 2 3 15 306
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 2 59 2 3 15 127
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 2 2 4 1,137
Recovering from COVID 1 1 20 20 4 6 29 29
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 0 246 0 1 4 673
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 0 0 2 561
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 1 1 3 253
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 0 3 192 2 2 13 636
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 2 2 6 403
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 0 0 2 88 0 1 5 302
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 0 1 3 3,083
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 1 2 3 445 1 5 14 1,021
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 1 936 2 3 9 2,156
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 5 7 18 1,470
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 0 2 4 1,152
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 1 2 3 247
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 1 2 3 748
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 218
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 345
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 0 0 4 134
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 0 2 3 148
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 0 1 8 0 1 3 28
The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change: Compositional Accounting and Forecasting 38 38 38 38 18 18 18 18
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 0 1 2 31
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 0 1 66 0 0 4 114
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 0 1 3 1,575
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 3 3 6 680
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 755 0 2 9 2,293
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 573
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 3 815 0 2 13 1,984
Total Working Papers 49 60 209 35,108 154 278 925 105,994


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 1 2 6 1,731 9 14 42 4,213
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 1 3 9 424 17 29 96 1,259
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 0 320 1 1 4 778
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 0 0 469 2 2 4 1,227
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 0 0 6 997 5 7 24 2,581
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 0 0 0 564 0 0 5 1,072
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 1 1 1 156
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 0 0 4 1,038
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 0 1 3 1,007
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 0 2 2 286 3 12 15 891
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 13
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 0 1 2 119
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 1 4 5 810
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 3 45 4 5 15 207
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 3 13 157 4 14 59 595
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 3 3 10 164 7 10 65 681
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 0 47 2 2 4 158
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 4 6 8 172
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 104 1 2 2 372
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 2 77 1 3 10 287
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 2 5 31 1,118
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 1 228 1 1 3 1,038
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 1 1 8 179 3 9 40 2,233
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 0 0 8 1,492 2 9 49 2,922
Forecasting inflation 1 3 24 1,690 11 23 79 4,230
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 0 0 3 145 1 4 17 528
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 0 2 88
Has the business cycle changed? 0 0 1 688 1 1 6 1,575
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 1 6 12 184 7 14 27 673
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 1 10 2 2 8 51
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 1 1 3 308
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 1 3 9 61 10 21 59 358
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 0 0 3 70
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 0 2 6 263
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 1 1 8 1,753 5 6 52 4,389
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 1 76 1 1 5 284
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 1 2 2 369
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 0 0 1 185 0 1 3 433
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 63
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 0 0 2 158
Long†Run Covariability 0 0 1 6 2 3 7 82
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 0 0 1 51
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 2 2 5 117
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 0 0 1 96
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 11 20 53 2,846
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 0 0 1 335 2 4 9 839
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 0 0 1 89
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 1 477 1 1 3 1,398
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 0 22 1 1 8 110
Modeling inflation after the crisis 0 1 6 187 1 2 14 768
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 1 1 4 741 2 6 28 2,327
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 57
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 945
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 0 1 10 220 0 4 26 735
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 1 1 4 168 2 4 38 943
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 0 0 1 45
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 0 0 82 1 1 2 189
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 1 1 1 69
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 1 3 444 1 2 28 1,523
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 1 1 15 419 10 14 51 1,402
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 282
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 3 14 2,495 8 13 47 6,505
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 2 480 1 1 4 821
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 1 2 18 635 12 27 160 2,174
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 0 2 214 0 1 7 588
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 0 0 1 271
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 1 1 5 201
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 1 1 3 605
Testing long-run neutrality 1 2 2 757 2 5 8 1,800
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 1 1 3 155
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 1 10 0 0 1 43
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 2 3 43 0 3 4 193
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 0 0 2 1,371 3 4 32 5,519
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 2 2 6 1,433
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 41
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 1 540 1 2 14 1,041
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 0 97 3 7 10 386
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 523 1 2 9 1,816
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 0 2 551 3 4 9 1,098
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 0 132 0 1 2 282
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 1 837 0 2 4 1,623
Vector Autoregressions 3 5 32 1,824 7 20 120 3,964
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 78
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 1 1 19 0 1 1 47
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 10 21 61 3,153
Total Journal Articles 19 48 255 28,458 206 405 1,568 87,660
3 registered items for which data could not be found


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 556
Total Books 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 556


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 2 5 202 0 4 22 460
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 2 258 3 4 34 808
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 3 8 15 2,974 8 22 50 6,972
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 0 1 7 0 0 5 22
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 1 1 6 40 2 2 9 83
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 0 0 1 36
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 1 1 2 73
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 5 11 50 777 25 40 164 2,062
Forecasting with Many Predictors 0 0 3 789 1 1 18 1,979
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 1 1 3 440 3 7 32 1,188
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 4 201 4 5 21 833
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 0 1 3 242
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 0 0 4 1,388 2 9 41 3,108
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 1 1 288 0 1 19 1,039
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 0 1 499 0 2 10 1,043
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 2 3 6 860 3 9 19 1,823
Total Chapters 12 27 101 8,848 52 108 452 21,773


Statistics updated 2025-11-08