Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 1 6 9 1,701
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 1 252 1 2 6 730
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 4 1,470 2 4 15 4,223
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 0 1 13 1,533 0 4 28 3,185
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 1 3 5 1,666
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 1 2 4 485
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 614
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 4 7 18 1,468
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 31 5 6 11 78
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 1 1 2 41 7 8 15 109
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 26 9 10 13 88
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 105
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 0 3 112 2 4 12 134
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 3 310 2 4 9 703
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 0 0 2 510 1 3 5 2,675
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 1 1 15 2,522 10 27 71 4,881
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 2 4 6 1,538
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 0 2 6 2,355 2 7 17 5,396
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 1 224 3 3 12 703
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 3 4 6 278
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 0 7 5 6 9 67
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 1 1 2 51
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 2 3 8 188 3 9 31 484
Diffusion Indexes 0 1 7 1,451 4 13 34 3,012
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 1 4 13 401 3 13 56 1,253
Dynamic Factor Models 1 2 8 124 1 14 32 315
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 0 3 5 687
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 1 1 1 1,196
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 167 0 0 2 667
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 1 255 0 2 5 586
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 336
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 2 850 0 0 8 2,060
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 3 4 12 628
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 1 2 10 495 3 15 57 1,229
Forecasting Inflation 0 0 4 3,393 2 3 13 7,783
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 1 1 2 908 3 4 14 2,098
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 2 1,890 0 1 8 4,677
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 1 1 3 1,036 3 7 16 4,372
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 1 3 22 5 7 16 100
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 0 1,063 0 0 4 4,317
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 0 1 108 4 6 8 220
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 1 3 10 1,635 3 14 42 4,075
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 2 2 2 337
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 5 6 6 738
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 1 1 4 89
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 0 116 1 6 10 166
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 2 4 6 178
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 0 0 5 683 4 5 12 1,841
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 0 97 2 4 4 481
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 3 3 4 246
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 0 3 31
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 1 1 1 124
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 1 1 2 91
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 95 1 2 5 417
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 0 416 1 2 13 982
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 1 1 212 2 5 13 1,990
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 2 3 6 2,559
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 0 0 2 963 1 5 29 2,438
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 1 59 6 8 14 133
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 0 162 0 3 10 306
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 0 2 3 1,137
Recovering from COVID 0 1 20 20 2 7 31 31
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 0 246 2 2 6 675
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 1 1 3 562
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 0 1 3 253
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 0 2 192 2 4 13 638
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 4 6 8 407
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 1 1 2 89 4 4 7 306
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 1 1 4 3,084
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 1 2 3 446 1 4 13 1,022
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 1 936 1 4 10 2,157
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 2 8 20 1,472
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 1 2 5 1,153
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 0 1 3 247
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 0 2 3 748
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 218
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 346
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 3 3 7 137
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 1 1 4 149
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 0 1 8 1 1 4 29
The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change: Compositional Accounting and Forecasting 2 40 40 40 2 20 20 20
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 31
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 0 1 66 1 1 5 115
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 1 2 4 1,576
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 681
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 755 2 2 11 2,295
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 1 4 9 574
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 3 815 3 4 15 1,987
Total Working Papers 14 68 209 35,122 176 389 1,012 106,170


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 59
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 2 5 1,731 2 15 39 4,215
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 1 4 10 425 15 37 94 1,274
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 0 320 1 2 5 779
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 0 0 469 1 3 4 1,228
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 1 1 7 998 2 9 26 2,583
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 0 0 0 564 1 1 6 1,073
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 1 2 2 157
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 5 5 7 1,043
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 2 3 5 1,009
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 0 1 2 286 1 8 16 892
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 13
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 68
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 0 1 2 119
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 3 4 8 813
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 1 1 4 46 2 6 16 209
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 0 2 11 157 5 16 59 600
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 1 4 9 165 4 13 59 685
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 0 47 0 2 3 158
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 1 7 9 173
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 104 2 3 4 374
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 1 77 1 3 10 288
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 5 8 33 1,123
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 1 228 1 2 4 1,039
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 2 3 8 181 4 11 40 2,237
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 3 3 11 1,495 13 17 60 2,935
Forecasting inflation 2 3 22 1,692 6 24 76 4,236
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 0 0 3 145 2 4 19 530
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 88
Has the business cycle changed? 0 0 1 688 5 6 11 1,580
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 5 9 17 189 11 21 37 684
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 1 10 1 3 9 52
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 3 4 6 311
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 3 4 10 64 8 20 59 366
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 1 1 4 71
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 0 0 6 263
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 1 2 9 1,754 11 17 61 4,400
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 1 76 0 1 5 284
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 1 2 3 370
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 0 0 1 185 0 1 3 433
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 64
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 1 1 3 159
Long†Run Covariability 0 0 1 6 1 4 7 83
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 0 0 1 51
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 3 5 8 120
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 0 0 1 96
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 4 20 52 2,850
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 0 0 1 335 2 4 11 841
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 0 0 1 89
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 1 477 3 4 6 1,401
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 0 22 0 1 8 110
Modeling inflation after the crisis 0 1 4 187 1 3 12 769
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 0 1 4 741 0 4 27 2,327
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 57
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 1 4 8 946
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 0 0 8 220 0 3 22 735
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 1 3 168 4 7 23 947
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 0 0 1 45
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 0 0 82 3 4 4 192
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 1 2 2 70
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 3 444 0 1 27 1,523
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 1 13 419 10 21 57 1,412
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 282
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 2 13 2,495 13 24 58 6,518
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 2 480 0 1 4 821
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 1 2 19 636 9 26 105 2,183
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 0 2 214 2 3 9 590
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 0 0 1 271
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 2 3 7 203
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 0 1 3 605
Testing long-run neutrality 0 2 2 757 0 5 7 1,800
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 0 1 3 155
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 1 10 0 0 1 43
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 1 3 43 2 4 6 195
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 0 0 1 1,371 3 6 33 5,522
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 2 4 8 1,435
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 41
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 1 540 2 3 15 1,043
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 0 97 4 7 14 390
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 523 0 2 8 1,816
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 1 1 3 552 4 7 13 1,102
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 0 132 0 0 2 282
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 1 837 1 2 5 1,624
Vector Autoregressions 3 6 30 1,827 13 26 115 3,977
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 78
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 0 1 19 0 0 1 47
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 8 23 64 3,161
Total Journal Articles 25 57 252 28,483 225 525 1,586 87,885
3 registered items for which data could not be found


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 558
Total Books 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 558


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 1 4 202 3 5 18 463
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 2 258 3 7 32 811
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 2 6 16 2,976 7 22 55 6,979
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 0 1 7 0 0 4 22
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 1 2 7 41 3 5 12 86
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 2 2 3 38
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 0 1 2 73
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 6 12 49 783 18 49 161 2,080
Forecasting with Many Predictors 0 0 3 789 2 3 16 1,981
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 1 2 440 1 7 29 1,189
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 2 201 0 4 18 833
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 2 2 5 244
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 0 0 3 1,388 14 18 50 3,122
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 1 288 2 2 19 1,041
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 1 1 2 500 1 2 10 1,044
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 1 4 7 861 3 11 22 1,826
Total Chapters 11 27 99 8,859 62 141 459 21,835


Statistics updated 2025-12-06