Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 0 1 4 1,695
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 1 252 1 1 6 729
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 4 1,470 1 2 15 4,220
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 0 1 14 1,532 1 5 32 3,182
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 0 1 3 1,663
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 0 0 2 483
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 613
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 1 2 12 1,462
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 31 0 0 6 72
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 26 0 0 3 78
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 40 0 2 7 101
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 104
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 0 4 112 1 4 10 131
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 3 310 0 1 6 699
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 0 0 2 510 0 0 4 2,672
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 0 1 20 2,521 9 16 74 4,863
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 0 1 2 1,534
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 1 3 5 2,354 2 6 15 5,391
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 1 224 0 1 9 700
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 275
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 0 7 0 0 3 61
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 0 0 1 50
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 1 8 186 1 2 30 476
Diffusion Indexes 0 0 9 1,450 2 3 28 3,001
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 2 2 13 399 7 21 56 1,247
Dynamic Factor Models 0 0 8 122 3 3 26 304
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 0 0 0 1,195
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 0 0 3 684
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 167 0 2 2 667
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 1 255 0 1 3 584
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 1 3 850 0 3 10 2,060
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 0 1 10 624
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 0 2 15 493 7 10 63 1,221
Forecasting Inflation 0 1 6 3,393 0 2 13 7,780
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 0 1 907 0 3 10 2,094
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 2 1,890 0 3 11 4,676
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 1 2 21 1 6 10 94
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 2 2 1,035 0 4 9 4,365
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 1 1,063 0 2 5 4,317
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 0 3 108 0 0 5 214
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 1 3 9 1,633 2 8 43 4,063
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 0 0 0 335
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 0 0 0 732
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 0 2 7 88
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 0 116 2 2 8 162
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 1 3 4 175
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 0 0 5 683 0 0 7 1,836
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 1 97 0 0 1 477
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 243
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 2 4 31
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 0 0 0 123
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 0 1 1 90
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 1 95 0 2 4 415
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 0 416 0 1 16 980
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 0 0 211 1 3 10 1,986
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 1 4 6 2,557
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 0 0 2 963 0 7 28 2,433
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 1 162 1 2 15 304
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 2 59 0 2 13 125
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 0 0 2 1,135
Recovering from COVID 0 0 19 19 1 7 25 25
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 0 246 0 1 4 673
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 0 0 2 561
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 0 0 2 252
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 0 3 192 0 1 11 634
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 0 0 4 401
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 0 0 3 88 0 1 9 302
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 0 1 3 3,083
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 1 3 444 2 5 15 1,020
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 1 936 1 1 7 2,154
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 1 2 15 1,465
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 1 2 4 1,152
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 0 1 2 246
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 1 1 2 747
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 218
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 344
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 0 0 4 134
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 0 2 3 148
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 0 1 8 0 1 3 28
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 0 1 2 31
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 0 1 66 0 1 4 114
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 1 1 3 1,575
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 677
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 755 0 3 9 2,293
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 3 6 9 573
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 4 815 1 3 15 1,984
Total Working Papers 5 19 188 35,059 59 192 849 105,840


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 1 2 5 1,730 4 7 34 4,204
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 2 2 10 423 5 22 101 1,242
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 0 320 0 1 4 777
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 0 0 469 0 0 2 1,225
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 0 0 6 997 2 4 20 2,576
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 0 0 0 564 0 2 6 1,072
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 0 0 1 155
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 0 1 4 1,038
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 1 1 3 1,007
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 1 2 2 286 4 9 16 888
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 13
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 1 2 2 119
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 0 3 4 809
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 4 45 0 3 13 203
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 2 14 156 7 12 64 591
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 0 0 8 161 2 6 64 674
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 0 47 0 1 2 156
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 2 2 4 168
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 104 0 1 1 371
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 2 77 1 2 9 286
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 1 6 32 1,116
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 1 228 0 0 2 1,037
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 1 7 178 4 8 40 2,230
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 0 0 9 1,492 2 13 49 2,920
Forecasting inflation 0 3 28 1,689 7 17 82 4,219
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 0 0 4 145 1 3 18 527
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 0 3 88
Has the business cycle changed? 0 1 1 688 0 1 6 1,574
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 3 8 11 183 3 11 21 666
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 1 10 0 0 6 49
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 0 0 3 307
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 3 10 60 2 15 59 348
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 0 2 3 70
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 0 3 6 263
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 0 0 8 1,752 1 7 53 4,384
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 1 76 0 0 5 283
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 0 1 1 368
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 0 0 1 185 1 2 3 433
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 62
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 0 0 3 158
Long†Run Covariability 0 0 1 6 1 1 7 80
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 0 0 1 51
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 115
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 0 0 1 96
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 5 11 45 2,835
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 0 0 1 335 0 2 7 837
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 0 0 1 89
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 2 477 0 1 3 1,397
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 0 22 0 4 7 109
Modeling inflation after the crisis 1 1 6 187 1 2 16 767
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 0 0 3 740 2 5 27 2,325
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 57
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 2 3 6 944
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 0 1 11 220 3 5 32 735
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 5 167 1 4 45 941
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 0 0 1 45
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 0 0 82 0 0 2 188
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 68
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 1 3 444 0 1 29 1,522
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 2 16 418 1 14 45 1,392
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 281
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 2 4 15 2,495 3 8 41 6,497
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 2 480 0 0 3 820
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 0 3 21 634 5 24 165 2,162
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 0 2 214 1 1 7 588
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 0 1 1 271
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 0 0 4 200
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 0 0 2 604
Testing long-run neutrality 1 1 1 756 3 3 6 1,798
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 0 0 2 154
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 1 10 0 0 1 43
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 1 2 3 43 2 3 4 193
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 0 0 4 1,371 0 1 32 5,516
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 1,431
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 1 1 41
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 1 540 0 1 13 1,040
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 0 97 0 4 7 383
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 1 1 523 1 2 9 1,815
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 0 2 551 0 1 8 1,095
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 1 132 0 2 3 282
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 1 837 1 2 4 1,623
Vector Autoregressions 0 3 32 1,821 6 20 131 3,957
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 78
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 1 1 19 0 1 1 47
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 5 18 52 3,143
Total Journal Articles 13 44 269 28,439 94 320 1,533 87,454
3 registered items for which data could not be found


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 556
Total Books 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 556


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 1 2 5 202 2 4 22 460
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 2 258 1 7 33 805
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 1 6 12 2,971 7 18 46 6,964
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 0 1 7 0 0 5 22
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 0 0 5 39 0 1 7 81
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 0 0 1 36
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 0 0 2 72
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 1 9 51 772 6 24 161 2,037
Forecasting with Many Predictors 0 0 4 789 0 2 21 1,978
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 2 439 3 5 32 1,185
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 4 201 0 2 17 829
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 0 1 3 242
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 0 1 4 1,388 2 10 41 3,106
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 1 1 288 0 1 20 1,039
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 0 1 499 1 3 11 1,043
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 1 1 4 858 5 6 17 1,820
Total Chapters 4 20 96 8,836 27 84 441 21,721


Statistics updated 2025-10-06