Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 0 1 4 1,695
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 1 252 0 0 6 728
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 4 1,470 1 1 15 4,219
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 0 3 14 1,532 1 7 34 3,181
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 0 1 4 1,663
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 0 1 2 483
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 613
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 0 4 12 1,461
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 31 0 0 7 72
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 2 40 1 3 8 101
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 26 0 0 4 78
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 104
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 1 4 112 1 4 9 130
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 3 310 0 1 7 699
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 0 0 2 510 0 0 4 2,672
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 0 3 25 2,521 2 12 77 4,854
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 0 1 2 1,534
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 1 2 5 2,353 3 4 18 5,389
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 1 224 0 1 9 700
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 274
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 1 7 0 1 4 61
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 0 0 2 50
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 0 0 8 185 0 1 32 475
Diffusion Indexes 0 1 10 1,450 0 2 35 2,999
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 0 5 12 397 9 22 52 1,240
Dynamic Factor Models 0 0 8 122 0 0 24 301
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 0 0 0 1,195
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 0 0 3 684
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 167 2 2 2 667
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 1 255 0 1 3 584
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 1 1 3 850 2 3 10 2,060
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 1 1 11 624
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 1 3 18 493 2 11 62 1,214
Forecasting Inflation 0 1 7 3,393 1 2 14 7,780
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 0 1 907 3 3 10 2,094
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 2 1,890 2 3 12 4,676
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 1 2 2 1,035 1 5 9 4,365
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 1 2 2 21 1 6 10 93
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 1 1,063 1 3 6 4,317
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 0 4 108 0 0 7 214
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 0 3 8 1,632 1 8 41 4,061
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 0 0 0 335
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 0 0 0 732
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 0 2 8 88
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 0 116 0 1 7 160
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 1 2 3 174
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 0 0 5 683 0 0 8 1,836
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 1 97 0 0 1 477
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 243
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 2 2 4 31
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 0 0 1 123
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 0 1 1 90
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 1 95 0 3 4 415
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 0 416 0 2 16 980
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 0 1 211 2 2 10 1,985
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 2 3 5 2,556
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 0 1 2 963 3 8 31 2,433
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 1 162 0 1 16 303
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 2 59 1 2 14 125
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 0 0 2 1,135
Recovering from COVID 0 18 19 19 1 19 24 24
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 0 246 1 1 4 673
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 0 0 2 561
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 0 0 2 252
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 0 3 192 0 2 11 634
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 0 0 4 401
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 0 0 3 88 1 1 9 302
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 1 1 3 3,083
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 1 1 4 444 2 4 15 1,018
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 1 936 0 1 6 2,153
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 1 3 17 1,464
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 1 2 5 1,151
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 1 1 2 246
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 0 0 2 746
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 218
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 343
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 0 0 4 134
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 2 2 3 148
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 0 1 8 1 1 3 28
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 1 1 2 31
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 0 1 66 0 1 4 114
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 0 0 2 1,574
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 677
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 755 2 3 9 2,293
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 570
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 4 815 1 3 16 1,983
Total Working Papers 6 47 201 35,054 65 196 870 105,781


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 2 5 1,729 1 4 31 4,200
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 0 0 9 421 7 20 102 1,237
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 0 320 0 1 4 777
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 0 0 469 0 0 2 1,225
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 0 0 7 997 0 3 22 2,574
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 0 0 0 564 0 3 7 1,072
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 0 0 1 155
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 0 1 4 1,038
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 0 0 2 1,006
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 1 1 1 285 5 5 12 884
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 13
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 0 1 1 118
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 3 3 5 809
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 1 4 45 1 4 15 203
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 2 15 155 3 9 65 584
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 0 0 11 161 1 8 72 672
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 0 47 0 1 2 156
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 0 0 2 166
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 104 1 1 1 371
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 2 77 1 1 8 285
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 2 5 35 1,115
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 1 228 0 0 2 1,037
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 1 7 178 2 8 41 2,226
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 0 0 10 1,492 5 16 48 2,918
Forecasting inflation 2 4 32 1,689 5 14 86 4,212
Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices 0 0 0 563 2 2 7 1,495
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 0 1 4 145 2 7 17 526
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 0 3 88
Has the business cycle changed? 0 1 1 688 0 1 6 1,574
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 2 6 9 180 4 10 22 663
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 1 10 0 2 6 49
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 0 1 3 307
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 2 4 12 60 9 20 62 346
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 0 2 3 70
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 2 4 6 263
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 0 1 8 1,752 0 13 58 4,383
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 1 76 0 0 5 283
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 1 1 1 368
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 0 0 1 185 0 1 2 432
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 62
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 0 0 3 158
Long†Run Covariability 0 1 1 6 0 1 6 79
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 0 1 1 51
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 115
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 0 0 1 96
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 4 12 44 2,830
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 0 0 1 335 2 3 8 837
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 0 0 1 89
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 2 477 0 1 4 1,397
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 0 22 0 4 8 109
Modeling inflation after the crisis 0 0 6 186 0 2 17 766
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 0 0 3 740 2 3 29 2,323
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 57
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 942
On the sources of the Great Moderation - discussion 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 52
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 1 3 11 220 1 4 33 732
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 5 167 1 6 52 940
Recent changes in trend and cycle, remarks 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 31
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 0 0 1 45
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 0 0 82 0 0 2 188
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 68
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 1 1 3 444 1 3 35 1,522
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 4 18 418 3 20 47 1,391
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 281
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 1 2 13 2,493 2 12 41 6,494
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 1 2 480 0 1 3 820
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 1 5 23 634 10 29 170 2,157
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 0 2 214 0 0 6 587
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 0 1 1 271
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 0 1 4 200
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 0 0 2 604
Testing long-run neutrality 0 0 0 755 0 0 4 1,795
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 0 0 2 154
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 1 1 10 0 1 1 43
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 1 1 2 42 1 1 2 191
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 0 0 4 1,371 1 1 32 5,516
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 1,431
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 1 2 41
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 1 540 1 1 13 1,040
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 0 97 4 4 8 383
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 1 1 523 0 2 9 1,814
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 0 2 551 1 1 8 1,095
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 1 132 1 2 3 282
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 1 837 1 1 3 1,622
Vector Autoregressions 2 5 37 1,821 7 22 138 3,951
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 78
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 1 1 1 19 1 1 1 47
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 6 15 49 3,138
Total Journal Articles 16 50 282 29,012 107 337 1,581 88,938


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 556
Total Books 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 556


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 1 1 4 201 2 2 20 458
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 4 258 0 6 38 804
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 4 6 13 2,970 7 13 45 6,957
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 0 1 7 0 0 5 22
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 0 1 5 39 0 2 7 81
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 0 1 1 36
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 0 0 2 72
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 5 14 59 771 9 28 181 2,031
Forecasting with Many Predictors 0 0 5 789 0 2 23 1,978
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 3 439 1 5 34 1,182
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 4 201 1 4 18 829
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 1 1 4 242
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 0 1 6 1,388 5 11 46 3,104
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 1 1 1 288 1 2 23 1,039
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 1 1 499 1 3 11 1,042
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 1 3 857 1 4 12 1,815
Total Chapters 11 26 109 8,832 29 84 472 21,694


Statistics updated 2025-09-05