Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 1 252 0 0 8 728
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 0 0 4 1,694
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 1 2 5 1,470 1 5 19 4,218
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 4 6 15 1,529 6 9 37 3,174
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 1 1 4 1,662
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 1 1 1 482
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 613
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 1 2 12 1,457
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 1 2 40 0 3 5 98
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 1 1 31 0 4 7 72
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 1 1 26 0 2 5 78
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 103
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 1 4 111 0 1 6 126
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 1 1 3 310 1 2 9 698
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 0 1 2 510 0 1 4 2,672
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 0 5 24 2,518 2 14 83 4,842
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 1 1 1 1,533
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 4 2,351 0 3 20 5,385
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 1 1 1 224 1 2 8 699
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 273
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 2 7 0 0 4 60
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 0 0 2 50
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 2 9 185 1 5 35 474
Diffusion Indexes 0 0 16 1,449 2 5 49 2,997
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 2 3 9 392 6 12 40 1,218
Dynamic Factor Models 2 2 9 122 2 6 27 301
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 0 0 0 1,195
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 0 1 3 684
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 167 0 0 0 665
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 2 255 0 0 3 583
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 3 849 0 0 9 2,057
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 0 1 13 623
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 0 3 23 490 2 14 68 1,203
Forecasting Inflation 1 2 8 3,392 2 3 15 7,778
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 1 1 907 0 4 7 2,091
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 1 1 2 1,890 2 3 10 4,673
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 0 19 0 2 4 87
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 0 1,033 2 2 6 4,360
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 2 1,063 0 1 4 4,314
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 0 5 108 0 0 10 214
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 2 3 6 1,629 4 9 40 4,053
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 0 0 1 335
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 0 0 0 732
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 0 1 6 86
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 0 116 1 2 6 159
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 0 0 1 172
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 1 2 5 683 1 2 9 1,836
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 1 97 0 0 1 477
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 243
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 0 2 29
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 0 0 1 123
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 0 0 2 89
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 1 95 0 0 2 412
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 1 416 1 3 18 978
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 0 2 211 1 2 11 1,983
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 0 0 3 2,553
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 1 1 2 962 1 5 28 2,425
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 3 162 1 1 20 302
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 1 1 3 59 1 2 13 123
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 0 1 2 1,135
Recovering from COVID 1 1 1 1 5 5 5 5
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 0 246 0 2 6 672
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 0 1 2 561
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 0 0 2 252
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 0 3 192 1 3 9 632
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 0 1 7 401
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 0 0 4 88 0 0 12 301
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 0 0 2 3,082
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 4 443 0 0 14 1,014
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 1 1 936 0 1 5 2,152
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 1 2 17 1,461
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 0 0 4 1,149
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 1 1 1 245
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 0 1 2 746
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 218
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 343
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 0 0 2 146
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 0 2 4 134
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 1 2 8 0 1 5 27
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 30
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 1 1 66 1 2 4 113
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 1 2 3 1,574
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 677
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 1 1 755 4 6 6 2,290
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 566
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 1 3 4 815 2 4 14 1,980
Total Working Papers 21 49 199 35,007 62 177 851 105,585


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 1 1 9 1,727 3 9 44 4,196
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 2 4 12 421 6 13 107 1,217
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 1 320 1 1 4 776
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 0 0 469 0 0 3 1,225
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 0 2 7 997 0 3 21 2,571
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 0 0 1 564 0 1 5 1,069
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 0 0 1 155
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 1 1 3 1,037
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 0 1 2 1,006
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 0 0 1 284 1 2 13 879
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 12
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 117
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 0 0 4 806
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 1 3 44 0 3 14 199
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 2 15 153 3 17 74 575
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 1 2 16 161 5 17 81 664
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 1 47 0 0 2 155
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 0 0 3 166
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 104 0 0 0 370
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 3 77 1 1 8 284
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 4 8 44 1,110
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 1 228 0 0 2 1,037
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 1 2 8 177 9 14 43 2,218
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 0 4 12 1,492 5 14 38 2,902
Forecasting inflation 4 7 31 1,685 11 24 88 4,198
Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices 0 0 0 563 2 3 7 1,493
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 0 2 3 144 2 5 11 519
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 0 3 88
Has the business cycle changed? 0 0 1 687 0 2 7 1,573
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 1 1 4 174 1 3 13 653
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 1 10 1 2 5 47
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 0 0 2 306
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 1 9 56 1 8 65 326
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 68
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 2 2 2 259
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 1 3 9 1,751 8 15 61 4,370
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 1 76 2 2 5 283
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 0 0 1 367
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 0 1 1 185 0 1 2 431
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 0 1 3 158
Long†Run Covariability 0 0 0 5 0 1 5 78
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 50
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 112
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 0 0 1 96
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 5 12 39 2,818
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 0 0 1 335 2 2 5 834
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 0 0 1 89
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 2 477 0 0 4 1,396
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 0 22 1 3 5 105
Modeling inflation after the crisis 0 2 8 186 0 3 21 764
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 2 2 3 740 10 12 27 2,320
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 0 0 2 57
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 940
On the sources of the Great Moderation - discussion 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 52
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 1 2 9 217 1 6 34 728
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 6 167 0 1 59 934
Recent changes in trend and cycle, remarks 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 31
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 0 0 1 45
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 0 0 82 0 0 2 188
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 68
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 2 443 1 7 41 1,519
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 1 17 414 1 4 36 1,371
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 281
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 1 4 11 2,491 3 13 38 6,482
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 1 479 0 0 3 819
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 3 6 26 629 12 24 177 2,128
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 0 2 214 0 2 8 587
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 270
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 0 0 4 199
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 0 0 2 604
Testing long-run neutrality 0 0 0 755 0 0 6 1,795
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 0 0 2 154
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 42
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 1 1 41 0 1 3 190
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 0 1 4 1,371 1 4 32 5,515
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 1 2 5 1,431
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 40
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 1 1 1 540 1 11 12 1,039
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 3 97 2 2 7 379
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 0 522 0 2 8 1,812
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 2 2 551 1 4 8 1,094
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 1 132 0 0 2 280
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 3 837 0 0 5 1,621
Vector Autoregressions 6 12 44 1,816 14 39 165 3,929
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 77
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 0 1 18 0 0 3 46
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 7 17 50 3,123
Total Journal Articles 26 67 298 28,962 132 347 1,622 88,601


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 554
Total Books 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 554


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 2 2 3 200 3 3 21 456
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 2 6 258 3 12 43 798
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 0 1 13 2,964 0 6 46 6,944
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 1 1 7 0 2 6 22
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 1 2 4 38 2 3 5 79
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 35
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 1 1 2 72
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 1 5 76 757 11 30 234 2,003
Forecasting with Many Predictors 0 0 8 789 3 6 29 1,976
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 1 3 439 2 5 33 1,177
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 1 4 201 3 7 19 825
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 0 1 4 241
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 0 0 7 1,387 4 9 46 3,093
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 287 0 8 30 1,037
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 0 1 498 1 2 9 1,039
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 2 856 1 2 11 1,811
Total Chapters 4 15 128 8,806 35 99 540 21,610


Statistics updated 2025-06-06