Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 3 5 26 1,721
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 252 0 3 18 746
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 1 1,471 0 4 25 4,243
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 0 1 5 1,537 2 8 31 3,211
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 0 1 8 1,671
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 0 1 7 490
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 619
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 0 3 34 1,495
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 0 31 0 0 18 90
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 2 42 1 2 23 123
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 0 26 0 2 19 97
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 116
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 0 0 112 0 1 23 152
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 0 310 0 1 18 717
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 0 0 0 510 1 3 44 2,716
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 2 4 11 2,532 5 16 128 4,980
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 2 4 32 1,566
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 5 2,357 1 9 55 5,441
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 0 224 0 3 16 716
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 1 2 45 318
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 0 7 0 0 13 74
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 0 0 8 58
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 0 0 5 190 1 2 22 497
Diffusion Indexes 0 0 4 1,454 2 5 42 3,041
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 0 0 9 406 2 6 58 1,289
Dynamic Factor Models 0 1 8 130 4 5 43 344
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 1 1 12 1,207
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 1 1 9 693
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 1 1 168 0 2 22 687
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 0 255 0 0 8 592
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 343
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 1 850 1 3 28 2,086
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 0 2 28 651
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 0 3 14 506 1 10 64 1,276
Forecasting Inflation 0 1 2 3,395 0 2 27 7,806
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 0 1 908 1 3 28 2,119
Forecasting the Covid Surge in Inflation 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 0 1,890 0 5 20 4,694
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 4 24 1 4 34 126
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 0 7 1,041 0 8 35 4,399
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 0 1,063 1 4 20 4,336
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 1 1 2 110 1 2 22 236
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 0 0 5 1,637 3 4 53 4,113
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 0 1 10 345
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 0 0 17 749
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 0 2 10 98
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 0 116 0 2 22 182
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 0 2 13 186
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 0 0 0 683 1 3 17 1,853
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 0 97 0 0 77 554
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 256
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 0 0 7 36
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 0 0 11 134
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 0 0 10 100
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 1 1 96 2 9 25 440
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 0 416 0 1 10 990
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 0 1 212 0 4 29 2,012
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 0 2 25 2,579
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 0 2 2 965 2 7 43 2,473
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 2 61 0 9 82 206
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 0 2 164 0 14 107 410
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 0 0 11 1,146
Recovering from COVID 0 0 2 21 0 0 21 44
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 1 1 247 0 4 20 692
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 0 0 8 569
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 0 0 11 263
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 0 1 193 0 0 16 650
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 0 1 22 423
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 0 0 1 89 1 3 24 325
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 2 5 448 2 6 27 1,043
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 0 1 13 3,095
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 1 937 0 8 32 2,185
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 0 4 28 1,491
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 0 1 17 1,167
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 0 0 15 260
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 1 3 13 759
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 222
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 0 2 19 362
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 0 1 11 157
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 0 2 13 147
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 0 1 9 0 2 11 38
The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change: Compositional Accounting and Forecasting 0 0 41 41 0 0 33 33
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 0 0 13 43
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 0 0 66 1 1 12 126
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 0 4 8 1,582
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 689
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 756 0 3 14 2,305
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 0 2 23 591
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 1 1 1 816 1 3 24 2,006
Total Working Papers 5 20 151 35,199 49 252 2,197 107,913


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 61
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 1 5 1,734 1 17 69 4,268
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 0 4 8 429 5 13 98 1,328
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 0 320 0 1 18 795
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 1 1 470 0 2 13 1,238
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 0 0 2 999 0 4 36 2,610
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 0 0 3 567 0 1 18 1,090
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 0 0 8 163
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 1 2 14 1,052
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 0 1 7 1,013
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 1 1 7 291 3 5 44 923
Comment 0 0 0 3 2 2 6 19
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 70
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 0 0 4 122
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 1 2 45 851
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 1 46 0 2 14 216
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 1 2 9 163 5 13 64 645
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 0 0 4 165 0 6 36 707
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 0 47 0 1 9 165
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 1 2 23 189
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 1 105 0 0 12 382
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 0 77 0 1 14 298
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 1 8 60 1,173
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 0 228 0 0 16 1,053
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 2 5 183 2 7 51 2,275
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 1 3 14 1,506 1 16 171 3,084
Forecasting inflation 1 5 20 1,707 4 17 106 4,313
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 0 1 1 146 0 5 28 552
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 0 0 8 96
Has the business cycle changed? 0 0 0 688 0 3 18 1,592
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 2 27 205 0 13 96 755
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 0 10 0 0 13 62
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 0 0 13 320
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 2 11 69 5 14 77 414
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 1 1 5 75
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 0 1 7 268
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 3 4 10 1,762 6 17 84 4,467
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 0 76 0 0 9 292
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 0 1 10 377
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 0 1 1 186 0 2 11 443
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 69
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 0 0 5 163
Long†Run Covariability 1 1 1 7 1 2 11 90
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 1 2 7 58
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 1 1 13 128
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 0 1 3 99
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 6 26 101 2,927
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 0 0 1 336 0 1 20 855
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 0 0 2 91
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 1 478 1 3 19 1,416
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 0 22 1 4 15 124
Modeling inflation after the crisis 0 0 2 188 1 2 27 793
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 0 0 3 743 1 2 30 2,351
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 1 4 10 67
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 2 3 28 970
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 0 0 2 221 1 5 26 757
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 1 4 171 3 16 62 1,001
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 2 2 8 53
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 0 1 83 0 0 13 201
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 0 0 12 80
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 1 444 1 2 20 1,541
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 0 1 8 426 1 5 66 1,454
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 285
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 5 2,497 2 10 70 6,562
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 480 0 2 13 833
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 2 4 19 652 17 58 171 2,318
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 0 0 214 0 3 13 600
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 0 2 9 280
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 0 1 10 210
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 1 3 12 616
Testing long-run neutrality 0 0 3 758 0 0 36 1,831
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 1 1 5 159
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 0 10 0 0 19 62
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 1 4 45 0 4 23 213
The Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences of Inflation 0 1 4 4 0 2 9 9
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 1 1 1 1,372 2 2 23 5,538
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 0 2 9 1,440
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 1 7 48
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 540 0 1 15 1,054
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 1 98 0 3 25 404
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 0 523 0 1 15 1,829
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 0 1 552 1 3 22 1,116
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 0 132 0 0 9 290
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 0 837 0 1 13 1,634
Vector Autoregressions 1 3 31 1,850 5 27 264 4,208
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 79
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 0 1 19 0 2 11 57
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 5 18 86 3,218
Total Journal Articles 12 42 224 28,634 97 408 2,742 89,997
3 registered items for which data could not be found


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 0 1 15 569
Total Books 0 0 0 0 0 1 15 569


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 2 202 1 3 22 478
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 1 2 260 0 7 35 839
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 1 2 15 2,981 2 11 88 7,038
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 0 0 7 0 2 11 33
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 1 1 4 43 1 1 16 97
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 0 0 5 41
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 7
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 0 0 6 78
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 3 7 36 802 9 34 174 2,196
Forecasting with Many Predictors 0 1 2 791 1 9 43 2,021
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 3 442 2 45 96 1,277
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 1 1 202 0 3 39 867
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 0 2 11 252
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 0 0 2 1,390 3 10 79 3,178
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 1 288 0 1 26 1,064
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 0 1 500 1 1 10 1,051
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 5 862 0 0 31 1,845
Total Chapters 5 13 74 8,895 20 129 697 22,362


Statistics updated 2026-08-07