Access Statistics for Mark W. Watson

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Working Paper File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 0 582 7 9 16 1,709
A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 1 252 6 7 9 736
A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series 0 0 2 1,470 7 10 19 4,231
A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators 0 0 10 1,533 4 7 29 3,192
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 0 700 0 1 5 1,666
A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 0 0 0 145 2 3 6 487
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 617
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems 0 0 0 5 10 19 30 1,483
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 1 2 41 4 13 21 115
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 26 1 15 18 94
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends 0 0 1 31 9 15 21 88
Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 108
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics 0 0 2 112 6 10 18 142
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 3 310 3 8 15 709
Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model 0 0 2 510 22 32 36 2,706
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets 2 4 16 2,525 22 50 100 4,921
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 161 7 12 16 1,548
Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series 0 1 6 2,356 12 25 39 5,419
Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 0 0 1 224 2 9 16 709
Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy 0 0 0 0 12 23 26 298
Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability 0 0 0 7 2 8 11 70
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 0 0 28 1 3 4 53
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 0 2 6 188 2 7 31 488
Diffusion Indexes 0 2 5 1,453 5 21 41 3,029
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession 0 2 13 402 5 13 61 1,263
Dynamic Factor Models 1 2 7 125 6 9 34 323
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 251 3 4 8 691
Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors 0 0 0 313 4 6 6 1,201
Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 167 6 13 15 680
Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets 0 0 0 255 3 5 8 591
Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors 0 0 0 0 2 5 5 340
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 2 850 8 13 20 2,073
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations 0 0 0 2 3 9 16 634
Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis 4 5 12 499 17 24 68 1,250
Forecasting Inflation 0 0 3 3,393 4 11 18 7,792
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 1 2 908 3 8 16 2,103
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 0 2 1,890 1 2 10 4,679
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 1 2 4 1,037 5 15 26 4,384
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 0 1 4 23 8 16 27 111
How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 0 1,063 8 10 14 4,327
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 0 1 2 109 2 9 12 225
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis 0 2 11 1,636 7 13 46 4,085
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 129 2 5 5 340
Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality 0 0 0 316 4 9 10 742
Long-Run Covariability 0 0 0 100 3 5 8 93
Low-Frequency Econometrics 0 0 0 116 1 8 17 173
Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing 0 0 0 65 3 7 11 183
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information 0 0 3 683 2 7 11 1,844
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 0 97 15 69 71 548
Measures of fit for calibrated models 0 0 0 0 1 5 6 248
Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts 0 0 0 5 1 4 6 35
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction 0 0 0 58 5 6 6 129
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 95 5 9 13 425
Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire 0 0 0 10 2 6 7 96
Modeling Inflation After the Crisis 0 0 0 416 3 6 14 987
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle 0 0 1 212 8 13 21 2,001
NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 0 0 0 7 7 10 14 2,567
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts 0 0 2 963 14 16 37 2,453
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 1 1 1 163 14 22 27 328
Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration 0 1 2 60 13 38 44 165
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s 0 0 0 373 2 3 6 1,140
Recovering from COVID 0 1 21 21 6 12 41 41
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 0 246 4 9 13 682
Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation 0 0 0 78 1 4 6 565
Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present 0 0 0 41 3 6 9 259
Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 1 1 1 193 3 9 17 645
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks: a structural factor analysis of industrial production 0 0 0 137 6 12 16 415
Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation 0 1 2 89 4 16 18 318
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 1 3 446 4 7 14 1,028
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 0 1,131 2 3 5 3,086
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 1 2 937 7 11 18 2,167
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations 0 0 0 3 6 12 28 1,482
Testing Long Run Neutrality 0 0 0 375 6 9 12 1,161
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 52 4 8 11 255
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known 0 0 0 161 5 6 9 754
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 220
Testing long run neutrality 0 0 0 1 2 6 8 351
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 68 4 6 9 154
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 0 0 0 23 5 9 13 143
The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction 0 1 2 9 1 3 6 31
The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change: Compositional Accounting and Forecasting 0 2 40 40 3 8 26 26
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 0 0 0 3 3 7 9 38
The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009 0 0 1 66 6 7 10 121
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 0 4 1 2 5 1,577
The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 0 4 5 11 685
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 755 1 5 14 2,298
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 0 0 0 5 10 18 583
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 3 815 4 8 18 1,992
Total Working Papers 10 36 205 35,144 452 950 1,649 106,944


Journal Article File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 59
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems 1 2 7 1,733 6 14 45 4,227
A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series 0 1 9 425 14 40 101 1,299
A dymimic model of housing price determination 0 0 0 320 6 11 15 789
A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination 0 0 0 469 4 6 8 1,233
ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs 0 2 8 999 10 16 37 2,597
Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models 1 2 2 566 6 11 15 1,083
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary 0 0 0 54 1 5 6 161
Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model 0 0 0 287 1 8 10 1,046
Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy 0 0 0 239 0 4 6 1,011
Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set 2 2 4 288 13 19 33 910
Comment 0 0 0 3 0 1 2 14
Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990." 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 68
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\" 0 0 0 36 1 1 3 120
Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel 0 0 0 289 11 15 19 825
Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability 0 1 4 46 3 5 19 212
Core Inflation and Trend Inflation 0 2 8 159 6 23 63 618
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession 0 1 7 165 4 13 57 694
Does GNP have a unit root? 0 0 0 47 0 4 7 162
Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?" 0 0 0 44 6 12 20 184
Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors 0 0 0 104 5 7 9 379
Estimating turning points using large data sets 0 0 0 77 3 5 10 292
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations 0 0 0 0 16 26 52 1,144
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates 0 0 0 228 3 6 8 1,044
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices 0 2 7 181 5 14 47 2,247
Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors 3 9 14 1,501 57 87 124 3,009
Forecasting inflation 2 8 23 1,698 11 31 93 4,261
Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors 0 0 3 145 5 15 31 543
Has inflation become harder to forecast? 0 0 0 24 3 4 4 92
Has the business cycle changed? 0 0 1 688 6 11 15 1,586
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression 6 11 22 195 18 38 62 711
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? 0 0 0 10 3 6 13 57
How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps? 0 0 0 128 4 7 9 315
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments 1 4 10 65 8 22 63 380
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment 0 0 0 4 0 1 4 71
Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons 0 0 0 78 3 3 9 266
Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots 1 3 9 1,756 9 28 71 4,417
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession 0 0 0 76 2 2 5 286
Inflation and Unit Labor Cost 0 0 0 95 1 4 6 373
Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality 0 0 1 185 1 7 10 440
Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 67
Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series 0 0 0 34 1 3 4 161
Long†Run Covariability 0 0 1 6 1 4 10 86
Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries 0 0 0 7 2 4 5 55
Low-frequency robust cointegration testing 0 0 0 8 1 6 11 123
MTS: A Review 0 0 0 8 2 2 3 98
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes 0 0 0 0 3 20 65 2,866
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information 0 0 1 335 3 9 18 848
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary 0 0 0 22 2 2 3 91
Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models 0 0 0 477 1 6 8 1,404
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions 0 0 0 22 3 3 11 113
Modeling inflation after the crisis 0 0 3 187 8 11 20 779
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle 0 0 4 741 5 6 29 2,333
Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis 0 0 0 11 1 2 2 59
Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply 0 0 0 0 13 17 23 962
Phillips curve inflation forecasts 0 0 5 220 5 7 22 742
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration 1 1 2 169 10 24 35 967
Recollections of Clive Granger 0 0 0 15 3 3 4 48
Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models 0 1 1 83 2 7 8 196
Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum 0 0 0 6 4 5 6 74
Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation 0 0 1 444 4 8 32 1,531
Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production 1 2 8 421 14 29 67 1,431
Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 283
Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations 0 0 9 2,495 7 26 65 6,531
System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 2 480 3 6 9 827
Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks 3 6 20 641 11 26 105 2,200
Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship 0 0 1 214 3 5 10 593
Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability 0 0 0 42 4 5 6 276
Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified 0 0 0 43 1 6 10 207
Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative 0 0 0 123 1 2 4 607
Testing long-run neutrality 1 1 3 758 9 12 19 1,812
Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model 0 0 0 31 1 1 4 156
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 0 0 1 10 8 13 14 56
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 1 1 4 44 6 12 16 205
The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy 0 0 1 1,371 5 8 37 5,527
The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations 0 0 0 2 0 4 9 1,437
The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 41
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 0 0 1 540 2 4 17 1,045
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures 0 0 0 97 2 6 15 392
Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics 0 0 1 523 5 5 12 1,821
Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends 0 1 3 552 3 9 17 1,107
Using econometric models to predict recessions 0 0 0 132 2 4 6 286
Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 0 0 0 837 2 3 5 1,626
Vector Autoregressions 3 10 31 1,834 81 135 217 4,099
Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 79
What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation? 0 0 1 19 5 6 7 53
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? 0 0 0 1,115 10 27 78 3,180
Total Journal Articles 27 73 243 28,531 518 1,045 2,196 88,705
3 registered items for which data could not be found


Book File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 0 0 0 0 4 6 8 562
Total Books 0 0 0 0 4 6 8 562


Chapter File Downloads Abstract Views
Last month 3 months 12 months Total Last month 3 months 12 months Total
A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 0 0 4 202 3 8 15 468
Are Business Cycles All Alike? 0 0 2 258 9 13 39 821
Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series 0 3 15 2,977 11 25 66 6,997
Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2 0 0 1 7 5 6 10 28
Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 0 1 6 41 5 9 17 92
Comment on "Shocks and Crashes" 0 0 0 9 1 3 4 39
Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2 0 0 0 0 4 5 7 7
Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" 0 0 0 24 2 4 6 77
Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics 3 10 41 787 19 56 165 2,118
Forecasting with Many Predictors 0 0 2 789 10 20 32 1,999
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? 0 1 3 441 9 16 34 1,204
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 0 0 2 201 9 12 29 845
Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting" 0 0 0 92 3 6 8 248
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators 1 1 3 1,389 9 32 65 3,140
Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations 0 0 1 288 7 11 24 1,050
Time series and spectral methods in econometrics 0 1 2 500 2 5 13 1,048
Vector autoregressions and cointegration 0 2 8 862 10 18 36 1,841
Total Chapters 4 19 90 8,867 118 249 570 22,022


Statistics updated 2026-02-12